Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Measuring the Resilience of Criminogenic Ecosystems to Global Disruption: A Case-Study of COVID-19 in China

Version 1 : Received: 24 June 2020 / Approved: 26 June 2020 / Online: 26 June 2020 (12:14:21 CEST)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Borrion H, Kurland J, Tilley N, Chen P (2020) Measuring the resilience of criminogenic ecosystems to global disruption: A case-study of COVID-19 in China. PLoS ONE 15(10): e0240077. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0240077 Borrion H, Kurland J, Tilley N, Chen P (2020) Measuring the resilience of criminogenic ecosystems to global disruption: A case-study of COVID-19 in China. PLoS ONE 15(10): e0240077. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0240077

Journal reference: PLOS ONE 2020
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0240077

Abstract

This paper uses resilience as a lens through which to analyse disasters and other major threats to patterns of criminal behaviour. A set of indicators and mathematical models are introduced that aim to quantitatively describe changes in crime levels in comparison to what could otherwise be expected, and what might be expected by way of adaptation and subsequent resumption of those patterns. The validity of the proposed resilience assessment tool is demonstrated using commercial theft data from the COVID-19 pandemic period. A 64 per cent reduction in crime was found in the studied city (China) during an 83-day period, before daily crime levels bounced back to higher than expected values. The proposed resilience indicators are recommended as benchmarking instruments for evaluating and comparing the global impact of COVID-19 policies on crime and public safety.

Subject Areas

security; resilience; pandemic; COVID-19

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