Preprint Article Version 1 This version is not peer-reviewed

Demystifying the Effects of Age at Marriage and Age at First Birth on Completed Family Size in Zambia

Version 1 : Received: 5 June 2020 / Approved: 7 June 2020 / Online: 7 June 2020 (10:52:14 CEST)

How to cite: Moyo, N.; Nanyangwe-Moyo, T.; Qiao, X.; Wu, J.; Zheng, X. Demystifying the Effects of Age at Marriage and Age at First Birth on Completed Family Size in Zambia. Preprints 2020, 2020060081 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202006.0081.v1). Moyo, N.; Nanyangwe-Moyo, T.; Qiao, X.; Wu, J.; Zheng, X. Demystifying the Effects of Age at Marriage and Age at First Birth on Completed Family Size in Zambia. Preprints 2020, 2020060081 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202006.0081.v1).

Abstract

The link between age at marriage and first birth in explaining completed family size is not always direct, due to heterogeneity in circumstances, that compel individual women to marry or initiate childbearing at a particular age. We analyzed data for 1020 women aged 45-49 in 2014 of the 1965-1969 birth cohort from the 2013-14 ZDHS. We fitted a bivariate and multivariate multinomial logistic regression to establish the effect of mother’s age at first marriage and at first birth on completed family size (CFS). Chi-square test of proportions measuring differences in proportions and relative risk ratios (RRR) with confident intervals at 95% are reported. Our results show that the average CFS was 6.7 (95% CI: 6.5 – 6.9) among women completing their reproductive span in 2014 with mean age at first marriage and birth being 18.3 years (95% CI: 18.0 – 18.5) and 18.9 years (95% CI: 18.7 – 19.1) respectively. Women marrying at younger ages and having their first birth at younger ages were more likely (RRR: 0.262; 95% CI:0.126-0.547 and RRR: 0.176; 95% CI:0.068-0.497 respectively) to have higher CFS than their compatriots that initiated both marriage and childbearing at or after age 22. Having no education, being a rural resident and having a medium household wealth all increased the risk of having higher CFS. Women that marry before age 19 have a higher likelihood of having 6 or more children by the end of their reproductive period. The study concludes that apart from a woman’s age at first marriage and first birth, a complex network of factors interact to determined CFS.

Subject Areas

age at first marriage; age at first birth; completed family size; fertility

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