Working Paper Article Version 2 This version is not peer-reviewed

Flattening COVID-19 Curve in Egypt: An Epidemiological Modelling

Version 1 : Received: 8 May 2020 / Approved: 9 May 2020 / Online: 9 May 2020 (08:29:15 CEST)
Version 2 : Received: 14 May 2020 / Approved: 14 May 2020 / Online: 14 May 2020 (15:12:16 CEST)

How to cite: Hasab, A. Flattening COVID-19 Curve in Egypt: An Epidemiological Modelling. Preprints 2020, 2020050156 Hasab, A. Flattening COVID-19 Curve in Egypt: An Epidemiological Modelling. Preprints 2020, 2020050156


Background: Flattening the curve refers to community isolation measures that keep the daily number of disease cases at a manageable level for medical providers. Efforts to completely contain the COVID – 19 have failed. As there is currently no vaccine or specific medication to treat COVID-19, the only way to flatten the curve is through collective action of mitigation efforts. Objectives: The study was carried out with aim to study the effect of mitigation efforts in reducing the overall COVID -19 attack rate and flattening the curve of COVID-19 in Egypt. Methods: Secondary data in the situation reports of WHO, Worldometer and Egyptian MoHP Report about the COVID-19 epidemic in Egypt were analyzed till June 27, 2020. Survival analysis was carried out to determine the cumulative proportional survival of COVID-19. The Susceptible Infected Recovered (SIR) model was used to study the epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic. Results: In Egypt in the fourth week after exposure β was 0.17 and γ = 0.07. The fraction of infectious individuals will grow exponentially as the exponential growth rate was 0.10, with an epidemic time of 7 days. R in 22 nd June was 0.80 (less than one person infected) where β=0.21 and γ =0.26. There was reduction in the actual overall attack rate at 22nd June of 96 % of its value without intervention with a cumulative proportional survival of 0.89. There was flattening of the curve. Conclusion and Recommendation: Mitigation efforts of Egypt had succeeded in flattening the curve of COVID-19 Pandemic. Even though, strengthening all the mitigation efforts to keep the exposure probability, as well as the transmission rate as low as possible is mandatory for containment of the epidemic.


COVID-19; Egypt; Epidemic SIR Model; Pandemic; Flattening the curve


Medicine and Pharmacology, Epidemiology and Infectious Diseases

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