Working Paper Article Version 2 This version is not peer-reviewed

Flattening COVID-19 Curve in Egypt: An Epidemiological Modelling

Version 1 : Received: 8 May 2020 / Approved: 9 May 2020 / Online: 9 May 2020 (08:29:15 CEST)
Version 2 : Received: 14 May 2020 / Approved: 14 May 2020 / Online: 14 May 2020 (15:12:16 CEST)

How to cite: Hasab, A. Flattening COVID-19 Curve in Egypt: An Epidemiological Modelling. Preprints 2020, 2020050156 Hasab, A. Flattening COVID-19 Curve in Egypt: An Epidemiological Modelling. Preprints 2020, 2020050156

Abstract

Background: Flattening the curve refers to community isolation measures that keep the daily number of disease cases at a manageable level for medical providers. Efforts to completely contain the COVID – 19 have failed. As there is currently no vaccine or specific medication to treat COVID-19, the only way to flatten the curve is through collective action of mitigation efforts. Objectives: The study was carried out with aim to study the effect of mitigation efforts in reducing the overall COVID -19 attack rate and flattening the curve of COVID-19 in Egypt. Methods: Secondary data in the situation reports of WHO, Worldometer and Egyptian MoHP Report about the COVID-19 epidemic in Egypt were analyzed till June 27, 2020. Survival analysis was carried out to determine the cumulative proportional survival of COVID-19. The Susceptible Infected Recovered (SIR) model was used to study the epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic. Results: In Egypt in the fourth week after exposure β was 0.17 and γ = 0.07. The fraction of infectious individuals will grow exponentially as the exponential growth rate was 0.10, with an epidemic time of 7 days. R in 22 nd June was 0.80 (less than one person infected) where β=0.21 and γ =0.26. There was reduction in the actual overall attack rate at 22nd June of 96 % of its value without intervention with a cumulative proportional survival of 0.89. There was flattening of the curve. Conclusion and Recommendation: Mitigation efforts of Egypt had succeeded in flattening the curve of COVID-19 Pandemic. Even though, strengthening all the mitigation efforts to keep the exposure probability, as well as the transmission rate as low as possible is mandatory for containment of the epidemic.

Subject Areas

COVID-19; Egypt; Epidemic SIR Model; Pandemic; Flattening the curve

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