Flattening COVID-19 Curve in Egypt: An Epidemiological Modelling

Background: Flattening the curve refers to community isolation measures that keep the daily number of disease cases at a manageable level for medical providers. Efforts to completely contain the COVID – 19 have failed. As there is currently no vaccine or specific medication to treat COVID-19, the only way to flatten the curve is through collective action of mitigation efforts. Objectives: The study was carried out with aim to study the effect of mitigation efforts in reducing the overall COVID -19 attack rate and flattening the curve of COVID-19 in Egypt. Methods: Secondary data in the situation reports of WHO, Worldometer and Egyptian MoHP Report about the COVID-19 epidemic in Egypt were analysed till April 24, 2020. The Susceptible Infected Recovered (SIR) model was used to study the epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic. Results: In Egypt in fourth week after exposure β was 0.27 and γ = 0.06. The fraction of infectious individuals will grow exponentially as the exponential growth rate was 0.21, with an epidemic time of 4 days. R in 23 ^rd April it was 0.18 (less than one person infected) where β=0.07 and γ =0.39. There was reduction in the actual overall attack rate up to 23th April of 70 % of its value without intervention. There was flattening of the curve. Conclusion and Recommendation: Mitigation efforts of Egypt had succeeded in flattening the curve of COVID-19 Pandemic. Even though, strengthening all the mitigation efforts to keep the exposure probability, as well as the transmission rate as low as possible is mandatory for containment of the epidemic.