Version 1
: Received: 13 April 2020 / Approved: 15 April 2020 / Online: 15 April 2020 (10:02:51 CEST)
Version 2
: Received: 16 April 2020 / Approved: 17 April 2020 / Online: 17 April 2020 (08:48:55 CEST)
Version 3
: Received: 9 May 2020 / Approved: 10 May 2020 / Online: 10 May 2020 (15:14:11 CEST)
Version 4
: Received: 15 May 2020 / Approved: 16 May 2020 / Online: 16 May 2020 (16:13:16 CEST)
Version 5
: Received: 20 May 2020 / Approved: 21 May 2020 / Online: 21 May 2020 (04:13:13 CEST)
Version 6
: Received: 14 July 2020 / Approved: 15 July 2020 / Online: 15 July 2020 (03:14:33 CEST)
How to cite:
Shuler, R.L.; Koukouvitis, T.; Suematsu, D. Partial Unlock for COVID-19-Like Epidemics Can Save 1-3 Million Lives Worldwide. Preprints2020, 2020040239. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202004.0239.v5
Shuler, R.L.; Koukouvitis, T.; Suematsu, D. Partial Unlock for COVID-19-Like Epidemics Can Save 1-3 Million Lives Worldwide. Preprints 2020, 2020040239. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202004.0239.v5
Shuler, R.L.; Koukouvitis, T.; Suematsu, D. Partial Unlock for COVID-19-Like Epidemics Can Save 1-3 Million Lives Worldwide. Preprints2020, 2020040239. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202004.0239.v5
APA Style
Shuler, R.L., Koukouvitis, T., & Suematsu, D. (2020). Partial Unlock for COVID-19-Like Epidemics Can Save 1-3 Million Lives Worldwide. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202004.0239.v5
Chicago/Turabian Style
Shuler, R.L., Theodore Koukouvitis and Dyske Suematsu. 2020 "Partial Unlock for COVID-19-Like Epidemics Can Save 1-3 Million Lives Worldwide" Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202004.0239.v5
Abstract
Objectives: We study partial unlock or reopening interaction with seasonal effects in a managed epidemic to quantify overshoot effects on small and large unlock steps and discover robust strategies for reducing overshoot. Methods: We simulate partial unlock of social distancing for epidemics over a range of replication factor, immunity duration and seasonality factor for strategies targeting immunity thresholds using overshoot optimization. Results:Seasonality change must be taken into account as one of the steps in an easing sequence, and a two step unlock, including seasonal effects, minimizes overshoot and deaths. It may cause undershoot, which causes rebounds and assists survival of the pathogen. Conclusions: Partial easing levels, even low levels for economic relief while waiting on a vaccine, have population immunity thresholds based on the reduced replication rates and may experience overshoot as well. We further find a two step strategy remains highly sensitive to variations in case ratio, replication factor, seasonality and timing. We demonstrate a three or more step strategy is more robust, and conclude that the best possible approach minimizes deaths under a range of likely actual conditions which include public response.
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Received:
21 May 2020
Commenter:
Robert Shuler
Commenter's Conflict of Interests:
Author
Comment:
More focused presentation reduces word count to 6000, eliminate intermittent daily unlock. Emphasize 3-step method for robust overshoot avoidance.
Commenter: Robert Shuler
Commenter's Conflict of Interests: Author