Working Paper Article Version 2 This version is not peer-reviewed

Characterization of Meteorological Drought and Pluvial Scenarios over Kenya, East Africa

Version 1 : Received: 24 December 2019 / Approved: 25 December 2019 / Online: 25 December 2019 (09:39:45 CET)
Version 2 : Received: 4 February 2020 / Approved: 4 February 2020 / Online: 4 February 2020 (15:56:58 CET)

How to cite: AYUGI, B.; Tan, G.; Rouyun, N.; Zeyao, D.; Ojara, M.; Mumo, L.; Babaousmail, H.; Ongoma, V. Characterization of Meteorological Drought and Pluvial Scenarios over Kenya, East Africa. Preprints 2019, 2019120343 AYUGI, B.; Tan, G.; Rouyun, N.; Zeyao, D.; Ojara, M.; Mumo, L.; Babaousmail, H.; Ongoma, V. Characterization of Meteorological Drought and Pluvial Scenarios over Kenya, East Africa. Preprints 2019, 2019120343

Abstract

This work examines drought and wet events based on Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) over Kenya from 1981 to 2016. Spatiotemporal analysis of dry and wet events is conducted for 3 and 12-month SPEI. The drought incidences were observed during the period 1984, 1987, 2000, 2006, 2009, 2015, and 2016 for SPEI-3 whilst the SPEI-12 demonstrated the manifestation of drought during the year 2000 and 2006. SPEI clearly shows that the wettest period, 1997 and 1998 that coincide with the El Nino event in both time steps. SPEI -3 shows a reduction in moderate drought events while severe and extreme cases were on increase towards the end of the twentieth century. Conversely, SPEI-12 depicts an overall increase in severe drought occurrence over the study location with observed intensity of -1.54 and cumulative frequency of 64 months during the study period. The trend of wet events is upwards in the western and central highlands while the rest of the regions show increase in dry events during the study period. Moreover, moderate dry/wet events predominate whilst extreme events occur least frequent across all grid cells. It is apparent that the study area experiences mild extreme dry events in both categories although moderately severe dry events dominate most parts of the study area. High intensity and frequency of drought is noted in SPEI-3 while least occurrences of extreme events are recorded in SPEI-12. Although drought event prevails across the study area, there is evidence of extreme flood conditions over the recent decades. These findings form a good basis for next step of research that will look at projection of droughts over the study area based on regional climate models.

Subject Areas

Drought; SPEI; Pluvial; Severity; Frequency; Duration; Kenya

Comments (1)

Comment 1
Received: 4 February 2020
Commenter: Brian AYUGI
Commenter's Conflict of Interests: Author
Comment: We streamlined the focus in terms of the research central objectives which greatly improved to reflect a hypothesis-driven framework. Also, we improved the latest draft in terms of innovation, validation and organization of the paper with results and discussions separated.
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