Article
Version 1
Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed
The Role of Natural Factors on Major Climate Variability in Northern Winter
Version 1
: Received: 2 August 2016 / Approved: 3 August 2016 / Online: 3 August 2016 (05:54:22 CEST)
Version 2 : Received: 17 May 2017 / Approved: 17 May 2017 / Online: 17 May 2017 (06:27:16 CEST)
Version 2 : Received: 17 May 2017 / Approved: 17 May 2017 / Online: 17 May 2017 (06:27:16 CEST)
A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.
Roy, I. (2020). Major climate variability and natural factors in Boreal Winter. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 177(10), 4983-5005. Roy, I. (2020). Major climate variability and natural factors in Boreal Winter. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 177(10), 4983-5005.
Abstract
This work studies the role of natural factors mainly solar eleven-year cycle variability, and volcanic eruptions on two major modes of climate variability the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) for around last 150 years period. The NAO is the primary factor to regulate Central England Temperature (CET) during winter throughout the period, though NAO is impacted differently by other factors in different time periods. Solar variability has a positive influence on NAO during 1978-1997, which is opposite before that period. Solar NAO lag relationship is also sensitive to the chosen times of reference. Such analyses raise a question about previously proposed mechanism and relationship related to the sun and NAO. The ENSO is seen to be influenced strongly by solar variability and volcanic eruptions in certain periods. This study observes a strong negative association between solar variability and ENSO before the 1950s, which is even opposite during the second half of 20th century. The period 1978-1997, when two strong eruptions coincided with active years of strong solar cycles, the ENSO, and volcanic eruptions suggested the stronger association. Here we show that the mean atmospheric state is important for understanding the connection between solar variability, the NAO and ENSO and associated mechanism.
Keywords
solar variability; NAO; ENSO; volcanic eruptions; multiple regression
Subject
Environmental and Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science and Meteorology
Copyright: This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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