The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. As of April 17, 2020, more than 2 million cases of COVID-19 have been reported worldwide. Northern Italy is one of the world’s centers of active coronavirus cases. In this study, we predicted the spread of COVID-19 and its burden on hospital care under different conditions of social distancing in Lombardy and Emilia-Romagna, the two regions of Italy most affected by the epidemic. To do this, we used a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) deterministic model, which encompasses compartments relevant to public health interventions such as quarantine. A new compartment L was added to the model for isolated infected population, i.e., individuals tested positives that do not need hospital care. We found that in Lombardy restrictive containment measures should be prolonged at least until early July to avoid a resurgence of hospitalizations; on the other hand, in Emilia-Romagna the number of hospitalized cases could be kept under a reasonable amount with a higher contact rate. Our results suggest that territory-specific forecasts under different scenarios are crucial to enhance or take new containment measures during the epidemic.

The lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) is an animal virus and a member of the Poxviridae family, which causes lumpy skin disease (LSD) in livestock animals like cows and buffaloes. LSD is an important transboundary disease of economic importance that was first discovered in 1929 in Zambia. LSDV has been prevalent in African countries, where several outbreaks have been reported previously. However, the virus has spread rapidly across the Middle East in the past two decades, reaching Russia and, recently, the Asian subcontinent. With the unprecedented cluster outbreaks reported across Asian countries, LSDV is certainly undergoing an epidemiological shift and expanding its geographical footprint globally. The recent LSD outbreaks have gained attention from global regulatory authorities and raised serious concerns among epidemiologists and veterinary researchers. Although there is no dearth of knowledge about LSDV, the disease lacks networked global surveillance and management, consequently making the current statistics deficient, fragmented, and unreliable. Hence, recurrent LSD outbreaks seriously threaten the global livestock industry. This review provides recent insights into LSDV by augmenting latest literature associated with its epidemiology, pathogenesis, transmission, currently-available intervention strategies, and economic implications on the dairy industries. The review also critically examines the changing epidemiological footprint of LSD and speculates on the possible reasons contributing to the ongoing multi-country LSD outbreak.