The ratio of males to females with ASD is generally quoted as 4:1 though it is believed that there are biases preventing females being diagnosed and that the true ratio is lower. These biases have not been clearly identified or quantified. Starting with a clinical dataset of 1711 children <18 years old four different methods were employed in an inductive study to identify and quantify the biases and calculate the proportion of females missed. A mathematical model was constructed to compare the findings with current published data. The true male to female ratio appears to be 3:4. Eighty per cent of females remain undiagnosed at age 18 which has serious consequences for the mental health of young women.

It appears that up to 80% of females with autistic spectrum disorder (ASD) have not been diagnosed by 18 years of age. This translates to a prevalence of about 5-6%, and if true has serious implications for female mental health. One way of finding the true value is to use Bayes’ Theorem with a comorbid condition as a more easily recognizable flag. An obvious choice is anorexia nervosa (AN), but it transpires that the proportion of women with ASD who develop AN is unknown. This study uses published data in novel ways to provide two methods of estimating a range for this variable, and gives a median value of 8.3% for AN in ASD and with four other methods a median prevalence of 6% for female ASD. The clinical implications for diagnosis and management of ASD and comorbidities are discussed and a solution is provided for the rate of ASD in generalized joint hypermobility.