ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202108.0111.v2
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Algebra & Number Theory Keywords: SARS-COV-2; Bayesian regression; Changepoint detection; European football championship
Online: 16 August 2021 (10:57:52 CEST)
While Europe was beginning to deal with the resurgence of COVID-19 due to the Delta variant, the European football championship took place, June 11 - July 11, 2021. We studied the inversion in the decrease/increase rate of new SARS-COV-2 infections in the countries of the tournament, investigating the hypothesis of an association. Using a Bayesian piecewise regression with a Poisson Generalized Linear Model, we looked for a changepoint in the timeseries of the new SARS-COV-2 cases of each country, expecting it to appear not later than two to three weeks after the date of their first match. The two slopes, before and after the changepoint, were used to discuss the reversal from a decreasing to an increasing rate of the infections. For 17 out of 22 countries (77%) the changepoint came on average 14.97 days after their first match [95% CI 12.29 to 17.47]. For all those 17 countries, the changepoint coincides with an inversion from a decreasing to an increasing rate of the infections. Before the changepoint, the new cases were decreasing, halving on average every 18.07 days [95% CI 11.81 to 29.42]. After the changepoint, the cases begin to increase, doubling every 29.10 days [95% CI 14.12 to 49.78]. This inversion in the SARS-COV-2 case rate, happened during the tournament, provides evidence in favor of a relationship
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202103.0689.v1
Subject: Engineering, Civil Engineering Keywords: COVID-19; mobility patterns; Rt; changepoint; modeling; Portugal; Longitudinal Study
Online: 29 March 2021 (12:31:54 CEST)
This study analyzes the relationship between the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus (COVID-19) and the mobility patterns of the Portuguese population. By reducing mobility, the idea is that contacts are reduced, countering the spread of the virus in the community. As an indicator of the spread of the virus, the reproduction number (Rt) was used. Data from Google's Community Mobility Reports was used to evaluate changes in mobility patterns. This report uses location data from Android mobile phone users. The locations are divided into retail and recreation, grocery and pharmacy, parks, transit stations, workplaces and residential. In this year of the COVID-19 crisis in Portugal, population mobility patterns have changed over the various phases of the pandemic. At first, all mobility was affected uniformly, with the population avoiding much of the activity outside the home. In a second phase, there was some adaptation, and the areas considered to be of lower risk had less impact, emphasizing the changes in the relationship between daily life and the workplace.