A model to predict the relative levels of respiratory and fecal-oral transmission potentials of coronaviruses (CoVs) by measuring the percentage of protein intrinsic disorder (PID) of the M (Membrane) and N (nucleoprotein) proteins in their outer and inner shells, respectively, was built before the MERS-CoV outbreak. Application of this model to the 2003 SARS-CoV indicated that this virus with M_PID = 8.6% and N_PID = 50.2% falls into group B, which consists of CoVs with intermediate levels of both fecal-oral and respiratory transmission potentials. Further validation of the model came with MERS-CoV (M_PID = 9%, N_PID = 44%) and SARS-CoV-2 (M_PID = 5.5%, N_PID = 48%) falling into the groups C and B, respectively. Group C contains CoVs with higher fecal-oral but lower respiratory transmission potentials. Unlike SARS-CoV, SARS-CoV-2 with M_PID = 5.5% has one of the hardest outer shells among CoVs. This shell hardness is believed to be responsible for high viral loads in the mucus and saliva making it more contagious than SARS-CoV. The hard shell is able to resist the anti-microbial enzymes in body fluids. Further searches have found that high rigidity of outer shell is characteristic for the CoVs of burrowing animals, such as rabbits (M_PID = 5.6%) and pangolins (M_PID = 5-6%), which are in contact with the buried feces. A closer inspection of pangolin-CoVs from 2017-19 reveals that these animals provided a unique window of opportunity for the entry of an attenuated SARS-CoV-2 precursor into the human population in 2017 or earlier, with the subsequent slow and silent spread as a mild cold that followed by its mutations into the current more virulent form. Evidence of this lies in the similarity of shell disorder and genetic proximity of the pangolin-CoVs to SARS-CoV-2 (~90%). A 2017 pangolin-CoV strain shows evidence of higher levels of attenuation and higher fecal-oral transmission associated with lower human infectivity via having lower N_PID (44.8%). Our shell disorder analysis also revealed that lower inner shell disorder is associated with the lesser virulence in a variety of viruses.

A model that predicts levels of coronavirus (CoV) respiratory/fecal-oral transmission potentials based on the outer shell hardness has been built using neural network (artificial intelligence, AI) analysis of the percentage of disorder (PID) in the nucleocapsid, N, and membrane, M, proteins of the inner and outer viral shells, respectively. Based mainly on the PID of N, SARS-CoV-2 is categorized as having intermediate levels of both respiratory and fecal oral transmission potential. Related to this, other studies have found strong positive correlations between virulence and inner shell disorder among numerous viruses, including Nipah, Ebola, and Dengue viruses. There is some evidence that this is also true for SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV, which have N PIDs of 48% and 50%, and are characterized by case-fatality rates of 7.1% and 10.9%, respectively. The link between levels of respiratory transmission and virulence lies in viral load of body fluids and organ respectively. A virus can be infectious via respiratory modes only if the viral loads in saliva and mucus exceed certain minima. Likewise, a person may die, if the viral load is too high especially in viral organs. Inner shell proteins of viruses play important roles in the replication of viruses, and structural disorder enhances these roles by providing greater efficiency in protein-protein/DNA/RNA/lipid binding. This paper outlines a novel strategy in attenuating viruses involving comparison of disorder patterns of inner shells of related viruses to identify residues and regions that could be ideal for mutation. The M protein of SARS-CoV-2 has one of the lowest M PID values (6%) in its family, and therefore this virus has one of the hardest outer shells, which makes it resistant to antimicrobial enzymes in body fluid. While this is likely responsible for its contagiousness, the risks of creating an attenuated virus with a more disordered M are discussed.

Following the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, several studies have examined the possibility of correlating the virulence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes COVID-19, to the climatic conditions of the involved sites; however, inconclusive results have been generally obtained. Although either air temperature or humidity cannot be independently correlated with virus viability, a strong relationship between SARS-CoV-2 virulence and the specific enthalpy of moist air appears to exist, as confirmed by extensive data analysis. Given this framework, the present study involves a detailed investigation based on the first 20–30 days of the epidemic before public health interventions in 30 selected Italian provinces with rather different climates, here assumed as being representative of what happened in the country from North to South, of the relationship between COVID-19 distributions and the climatic conditions recorded at each site before the pandemic outbreak. Accordingly, a correlating equation between the incidence rate of the pandemic and the average specific enthalpy of atmospheric air was developed, and an enthalpy-based seasonal virulence risk scale was proposed as a tool to predict the potential danger of COVID-19 spread due to the persistence of weather conditions favorable to SARS-CoV-2 viability. For practical applications, a conclusive risk chart expressed in terms of coupled temperatures and relative humidity (RH) values was provided, showing that safer conditions occur in case of higher RH at the highest temperatures, and of lower RH at the lowest temperatures. The proposed risk scale was in agreement with the available infectivity data in the literature for a number of cities around the world.

Escherichia coli is an indicator microorganism in One Health antibiotic resistance surveillance programmes. The purpose of the study was to describe and compare E. coli isolates obtained from pigs and human contacts from a commercial farm in South Africa using conventional methods and whole genome sequencing (WGS). Porcine E. coli isolates were proportionally more resistant phenotypically and harboured a richer diversity of antibiotic resistance genes, as compared to human E. coli isolates. Different pathovars, namely ExPEC (12.43%, 21/169), ETEC (4.14%; 7/169), EPEC (2.96%, 5/169), EAEC (2.96%, 5/169) and STEC (1.18%, 2/169) were detected at low frequencies. Sequence type complex (STc) 10 were the most prevalent (85.51%, 59/169) among human and porcine isolates. Six STcs (STc10, STc86, STc168, STc206, STc278 and STc469) were shared at the human-livestock interface according to multilocus sequence typing (MLST). Core genome MLST and hierarchical clustering (HC) showed that human and porcine isolates were overall genetically diverse, but some clustering at HC2 to HC200 were observed. In conclusion, even though the isolates shared a spatio-temporal relationship, there were still differences in the virulence potential, antibiotic resistance profiles, and cgMLST and HC according to the source of isolation.