Paratemporal methods based on tree expansion have proven to be effective in efficiently generating trajectories of stochastic systems. However, combinatorial explosion of branching arising from multiple choice points presents a major hurdle that must be overcome to implement such techniques. In this paper we tackle this scalability problem by developing a systems theory-based framework covering both conventional and proposed tree expansion algorithms for speeding up discrete event system stochastic simulations while preserving desired accuracy. An example is discussed to illustrate the tree expansion framework in which a discrete event system specification (DEVS) Markov stochastic model takes the form of a tree isomorphic to a free monoid over the branching alphabet. We derive the computation times for baseline, non-merging, and merging tree expansion algorithms to compute the distribution of output values at any given depth. The results show the remarkable reduction from exponential to polynomial dependence on depth effectuated by node merging. We relate these results to the similarly reduced computation time of binomial coefficients underlying Pascal’s triangle. Finally, we discuss application of tree expansion to estimating temporal distributions in stochastic simulations involving serial and parallel compositions with potential real world use cases.

The traditional sequent peak algorithm (SPA) was used to assess the reservoir volume (VR) for comparison with deficit volume, DT, (subscript T representing the return period) obtained from the drought magnitude (DM) based method with draft level set at the mean annual flow on 15 rivers across Canada. At an annual scale, the SPA based estimates were found to be larger with an average of nearly 70% compared to DM based estimates. To ramp up DM based estimates to be in parity with SPA based values, the analysis was carried out through the counting and the analytical procedures involving only the annual SHI (standardized hydrological index, i.e. standardized values of annual flows) sequences. It was found that MA2 or MA3 (moving average of 2 or 3 consecutive values) of SHI sequences were required to match the counted values of DT to VR. Further, the inclusion of mean, as well as the variance of the drought intensity in the analytical procedure, with aforesaid smoothing led DT comparable to VR. The distinctive point in the DM based method is that no assumption is necessary such as the reservoir being full at the beginning of the analysis - as is the case with SPA.

This paper presents an in-depth contextualized tutorial on Agricultural IoT (Agri-IoT), covering the fundamental concepts, assessment of routing architectures and protocols, and performance optimization techniques via systematic survey and synthesis of related literature. The negative impacts of climate change and the increasing global population on food security and unemployment threats have motivated the adoption of the wireless sensor network (WSN)-based Agri-IoT as an indispensable underlying technology in precision agriculture and greenhouses to improve food production capacities and quality. However, most related Agri-IoT testbed solutions have failed to achieve their performance expectations due to the lack of an in-depth and contextualized reference tutorial that provides a holistic overview of communication technologies, routing architectures, and performance optimization modalities based on users’ expectations. Thus, although IoT applications are founded on a common idea, each use case (e.g., Agri-IoT) varies based on specific performance and users expectations as well as its technological, architectural, and deployment requirements. Likewise, the agricultural setting is a unique and hostile area where conventional IoT technologies do not apply, hence the need for this tutorial. Consequently, this tutorial addresses these via the following contributions: (1) a systematic overview of the fundamental concepts, technologies, and architectural standards of WSN-based Agri-IoT, (2) an evaluation of the technical design requirements of a robust, location-independent, and affordable Agri-IoT, (3) a comprehensive survey of the benchmarking fault tolerance techniques, communication standards, routing and medium access control (MAC) protocols, and WSN-based Agri-IoT testbed solutions, and (4) an in-depth case study on how to design a self-healing, energy-efficient, affordable, adaptive, stable, autonomous, and cluster-based WSN-specific Agri-IoT from a proposed taxonomy of multi-objective optimization (MOO) metrics that can guarantee an optimized network performance. Furthermore, this tutorial established new taxonomies of faults, architectural layers, and MOO metrics for cluster-based Agri-IoT (CA-IoT) networks and a 3-tier objective framework with remedial measures for designing an efficient associated supervisory protocol for cluster-based Agri-IoT networks.

Suicide dynamics form a complex system deeply influenced by interrelated factors, necessitating advanced methodologies for comprehensive analysis. This study pioneers the application of Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) methods in suicide research, recognized for their enhanced sampling efficiency over traditional techniques in complex, high-dimensional models. PMCMC is particularly adept at handling non-Gaussian distributions and navigating parameter spaces efficiently, preventing the entrapment in local optima. Utilizing PMCMC, our research simulated a broad spectrum of potential outcomes, clarifying the probable scenarios and their likelihoods, thus enriching the predictive accuracy and understanding of suicide dynamics. These methods facilitated the exploration of dynamic interactions among key risk factors such as mental health issues, trauma, substance use, social isolation, and access to harmful means, whose complex interplays challenge predictive modeling. The study extends previous applications of PMCMC in complex systems like H1N1, opioid crises, and COVID-19 to the domain of suicide, suggesting its potential in enhancing decision-making and intervention strategies. However, limitations due to the model's simplified assumptions and the specificity of the data to certain populations underscore the necessity for broader application to validate findings across varied demographics. In summary, while PMCMC offers robust capabilities for the dynamic modeling of suicide, it requires careful parameter selection and consideration of computational demands. Future research should continue to leverage this approach in more complex settings, enhancing our ability to predict and mitigate suicide risks effectively.

The area of Central and Eastern Europe, and thus Poland, is not exposed to effects of seismic actions. Any possible tremors can be caused by coal or copper mining. Wind, rheological effects, the impact of other objects or a non-uniform substrate are the predominant types of loading included in calculations for stiffening walls. The majority of buildings in Poland, as in most other European countries, are low, medium-high brick buildings. Some traditional materials, like solid brick (>10% of construction materials market) are still used. But autoclaved aerated concrete (AAC) and cement-sand calcium-silicate (Ca-Si) elements with thin joints are prevailing (>70% of the market) on the Polish market. Adding reinforcement only to bed joints in a wall is a satisfactory solution (in addition to confining) for seismic actions occurring in Poland that improves ULS and SLS. This paper presents results from our own tests on testing horizontal shear walls without reinforcement and with different types of reinforcement. This discussion includes 51 walls made of solid brick (CB) reinforced with steel bars and steel trusses, results from tests on 15 walls made of calcium-silicate (Ca-Si) and AAC masonry units reinforced with steel trusses and plastic meshes. Taking into account our own tests and those conducted by other authors, empirical relationships were determined on the basis of more than 90 walls. They are applicable to design and construction phase to determine the likely effect of reinforcement on cracking stress that damage shear deformation and wall stiffness.

Fixed offshore wind turbines continue to be developed for high latitude areas where not only wind and wave loads need to be considered, but also moving sea ice. Current rules and regulations for the design of fixed offshore structures in ice-covered waters do not adequately consider effects of ice loading and its stochastic nature on fatigue life of the structure. Ice crushing on such structures results in ice-induced vibrations, which can be represented by loading the structure using a variable-amplitude loading (VAL) sequence. Typical offshore load spectra are developed for wave and wind loading. Thus, a combined VAL spectrum is developed for wind, wave, and ice action. To this goal, numerical models are used to simulate the dynamic ice-, wind-, and wave-structure interaction. The stress time-history at an exemplarily selected critical point in an offshore wind energy monopile support structure is extracted from the model and translated into a VAL sequence, which can then be used as a loading sequence for the fatigue assessment or fatigue testing of welded joints of offshore wind turbine support structures. This study presents the approach to determine combined load spectra and standardized time series for wind, wave, and ice action.

The most extensive urban growths in the next 30 years are expected to occur in developing countries. Lagos, Nigeria - Africa’s second most populous megacity- is a prime example. To achieve more sustainable and resilient cities, there is a need for modeling the urban growth patterns of major cities and analyzing their implications. In this study, the urban growth of Lagos state was modeled using the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) neural network for the transition modeling and the Markov Chain analysis for the change prediction, achieving a model accuracy of 81.8%. An innovative visual validation of the model results using the ArcGIS was combined with kappa correlation statistics. The results show that by 2031, built-up areas will be the most spatially extensive LULC class in the study area with percentage coverage of 34.1% as opposed to 9% in 1986. The coverage of bare areas is also expected to increase by 53% between 2016 and 2031. Conversely, 24.9% and 68.3% loss of forestlands and wetlands respectively, are expected between 2016 and 2031. In view of the 11^th goal of SDGs which focuses on achieving sustainable cities and communities, the objectives of African Union’s Agenda 2063, and based on the urban growth trends observed, the study recommends a prioritization of vertical expansion as opposed to the current horizontal urban growth trends in the study area.

L\'evy walks represent important modeling tools for variety of real life processes. Their natural scaling limits are known to be described by the so-called material fractional derivatives. So far these scaling limits were derived for spatially homogeneous walks, where Fourier and Laplace transforms represent natural tools of analysis. Here we derive the corresponding limiting equations in the case of position depending times and velocities of walks, where Fourier transforms cannot be effectively applied. In fact, we derive three different limits (specified by the way the process is stopped at an attempt to cross the boundary), leading to three different multi-dimensional versions of Caputo-Dzherbashian derivatives, which correspond to different boundary conditions for the generators of the related Feller semigroups and processes. Some other extensions and generalisations are analysed.