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Population genetic Changes Associated with Long-Term African Swine Fever-Related Management in a Wild Boar (Sus scrofa) Population from Northern Hungary

Submitted:

13 July 2026

Posted:

14 July 2026

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Abstract
African swine fever (ASF) has caused substantial wild boar (Sus scrofa) mortality across Europe and prompted intensive density-reduction measures, yet its long-term effects on population genetics remain poorly understood. To our knowledge, this is the first study to compare the same wild boar population before ASF emergence and after several years of ASF-related management, while simultaneously evaluating the consequences for wildlife forensic STR identification. We examined temporal change in genetic diversity, population structure, and forensic identification parameters in a wild boar population from Nógrád County, northern Hungary, comparing samples collected before ASF emerged in Hungary in 2018 (n = 67) with samples collected after several years of ASF-related management (n = 65). All 132 individuals were genotyped at 13 tetrameric microsatellite loci. Diversity was assessed using allelic richness, allele number, and heterozygosity; differentiation using F-statistics, analysis of molecular variance, and discriminant analysis of principal components; demographic history using a two-phase mutation model; and forensic performance using probability of identity and probability of identity among siblings. The post-ASF sample showed lower genetic diversity and significant temporal differentiation, consistent across methods, but no detectable recent bottleneck. Forensic discrimination power declined modestly while remaining sufficient for individual identification. Because no contemporaneous unaffected reference population was available, these changes cannot be attributed specifically to ASF or management rather than to genetic drift or natural turnover, although they are consistent with sustained demographic disturbance.
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Copyright: This open access article is published under a Creative Commons CC BY 4.0 license, which permit the free download, distribution, and reuse, provided that the author and preprint are cited in any reuse.
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