Assessment of Trends and Spatial Patterns of Agricultural Drought Incidence in Mpumalanga Province, South Africa

Agricultural drought represents a critical global environmental challenge that directly jeopardizes food security. Monitoring agricultural drought is essential for effective agricultural planning and robust water resource management. This study rigorously analyzed monthly precipitation (mm) and maximum and minimum temperatures (°C) from 14 grid points derived from the ERA5-Land dataset of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), covering the period from 1981 to 2025. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at a six-month time scale (SPEI-6) was calculated, and the Mann–Kendall test was employed to identify trends. The findings indicate that each grid point experiences varying intensities of drought. G4 stands out as the grid point with the highest drought events, followed closely by G7, G8, G1, G3, G5, G13, and G14 grid points. In stark contrast, G11, G12, G9, G6, G10, and G2 grid points reported the fewest events. The Mann–Kendall test results confirm that only one grid point (G14) exhibits a statistically insignificant decreasing trend (p>0.05). Conversely, 93% of the grid points reveal a statistically significant decreasing trend in the SPEI values, pointing to the fact that agricultural droughts are expected soon in these areas. These findings establish a strong foundation for future research on drought prediction and provide critical insights for effective decision-making in drought risk management. By highlighting the significant temporal and spatial variability in agricultural drought across Mpumalanga Province, this research decisively supports the development of adaptive strategies and policies necessary for managing these conditions effectively.