Submitted:
27 May 2026
Posted:
28 May 2026
You are already at the latest version
Abstract
Keywords:
1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Description of the Study Area
2.2. Sampling and Data Collection
2.3. Data Analysis
2.4. Econometric Framework
2.4.1. Probit Regression Model
2.4.2. The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) Method
3. Results
3.1. Socioeconomic Characteristics of the Farmers
3.2. Factors That Facilitate the Adoption of Forage Production to Bridge the Winter Feed Gap
3.3. Perceptions the Constraints to Adoption of Forage Production Technology
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
6. Limitations of the Study and Research Recommendations
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
| SDG’s | Sustainable Development Goals |
| PCA | Principal Component Analysis |
| SSA | Sub-Saharan Africa |
| KMO | Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin |
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| Variable | Description | Expected Signs |
| Dependent variable | ||
| Famer adoption of forage production | 1 if the farmer adopted forage production and 0 otherwise | |
| Independent/ explanatory variables | ||
| Gender | 1 = male, 0 otherwise | ± |
| Formal education | 1 = literate, 0 otherwise | ± |
| Farming experience | Years of farming experience | ± |
| Knowledge of forage production | 1 = have the knowledge, 0 otherwise | + |
| Household income | Monthly Rands | ± |
| Sources of income | Earning salary (yes = 1), Receiving grants (yes = 1), Have farm generated income (yes = 1), Have off farm business (yes = 1), 0 otherwise | + |
| Flock size | Number of sheep owned (head counts) | + |
| Land ownership | 1 = yes, 0 otherwise | + |
| Farmer group association | 1 = yes, 0 otherwise | + |
| Access to extension services | 1 = yes, 0 otherwise | ± |
| Variable | Category |
Adapters (n = 13) n (%) |
Non-adopters (n = 107) n (%) |
Pearson Chi Sq (χ²) |
p-value |
| Gender | Male Female |
10 (76.9) 3 (23.1) |
83 (77.6) 24 (22.4) |
0.003 | 0.958 |
| Age | <30 31-40 41-50 51-60 >61 |
2 (15.4) 2 (15.4) 2 (15.4) 1 (7.7) 6 (46.2) |
8 (7.5) 12 (11.2) 12 (11.2) 24 (22.4) 51 (47.7) |
2.229 | 0.657 |
| Education level | Lower education Higher education |
3 (23.1) 10 (76.9) |
66 (61.7) 41 (38.3) |
7.07 | 0.008*** |
| Occupation | Full-time farmer Non–full-time farmer |
10 (76.9) 3 (23.1) |
79 (73.8) 28 (26.2) |
0.048 | 0.828 |
| Sources of income | Salary & grants Farm generated income Off farm income |
7 (53.8) 5 (38.5) 1 (7.7) |
67 (62.6) 22 (20.6) 18 (16.8) |
2.41 | 0.300 |
| Household income | Low income <5000 Middle income High income |
5 (38.5) 8 (61.5) 0 (0.0) |
60 (56.1) 38 (35.5) 9 (8.4) |
6.03 | 0.049** |
| Herd-size | Small herds <20 Medium herds 21–40 Large herds > 50 |
5 (38.5) 4 (30.8) 4 (30.8) |
51(47.7) 24 (22.4) 32 (29.9) |
0.559 | 0.756 |
| Land ownership | Own land Leased land Communal land |
4 (30.8) 1 (7.7) 8 (61.5) |
8 (7.5) 14 (13.1) 85 (79.4) |
7.038 | 0.030** |
| Farming experience (years) | Low experience (< 10 years) Medium experience (10-20 years) High experience (> 20 years) |
5 (38.5) 4 (30.8) 4 (30.8) |
64 (59.8) 21 (19.6) 22 (20.6) |
2.17 | 0.338 |
| Group Membership | Yes (Member) No (Non-member) |
5 (38.5) 8 (61.5) |
58 (54.2) 49 (45.8) |
0.607 | 0.436 |
|
Significant p-values are denoted as: p < 0.01⁎⁎⁎. p < 0.05 ⁎⁎ p < 0.1* |
|||||
| Parameter | Coefficient | Std. Error | Z | P-value |
| Farmer characteristics | ||||
| Gender (Male = 1) | -0.157 | 0.089 | -1.773 | 0.076 |
| Formal education (yes = 1) | 0.149 | 0.186 | 0.802 | 0.423 |
| Farming experience (years) | 0.074 | 0.027 | 2.742 | 0.006** |
| Knowledge of forage production (yes = 1) | 0.454 | 0.159 | 2.851 | 0.004*** |
| Household income (Monthly Rands) | -0.046 | 0.045 | -1.022 | 0.307 |
| Sources of income | ||||
| Salary (yes = 1) | 0.349 | 0.115 | 3.022 | 0.003*** |
| Grants (yes = 1) | 0.081 | 0.096 | 0.844 | 0.399 |
| Farm generated income (yes = 1) | 0.247 | 0.120 | 2.063 | 0.039** |
| Off farm business (yes = 1) | -0.130 | 0.192 | -0.676 | 0.499 |
| Farm characteristics | ||||
| Herd size | 0.006 | 0.002 | 3.459 | <0,001*** |
| Land ownership (yes = 1) | 0.189 | 0.139 | 1.359 | 0.174 |
| Institutional factors | ||||
| Farmer group membership (yes = 1) | 0.256 | .086 | 2.973 | 0.003*** |
| Access to extension services (yes = 1) | 0.203** | .103 | 1.983 | 0.047 |
| Pearson Goodness-of-Fit Test | Chi-Square | dfa | Sig. | |
| 330.471*** | 105 | <,001 | ||
| Constraints to adoption | Average* (n = 120) |
Principal Components | ||||
| 1 Low institutional support |
2 Lack of resources |
3 Lack of knowledge |
4 Shortage of water |
5 Objectives of the farmer |
||
| Lack of awareness and knowledge | 4.74 | - 0.310 | -0.260 | 0.799 | -0.137 | 0.142 |
| Cost of production | 3.76 | 0.081 | 0.291 | 0.722 | -0.280 | -0.291 |
| Lack of financial resources | 5.69 | -0.602 | -0.172 | 0.318 | 0.098 | 0.018 |
| Lack of equipment | 4.13 | -0.571 | 0.601 | -0.009 | 0.241 | -0.057 |
| Labour intensive | 4.04 | -0.151 | 0.577 | -0.335 | -0.175 | 0.087 |
| Shortage of land | 5.11 | 0.664 | 0.352 | -0.296 | 0.067 | -0.190 |
| Low government support | 7.11 | 0.778 | -0.181 | -0.058 | 0.092 | -0.081 |
| Shortage of irrigation water | 8.03 | -0.007 | -0.436 | 0.103 | -0.788 | 0.299 |
| Lack of production inputs | 7.52 | -0.072 | -0.573 | -0.006 | 0.497 | 0.361 |
| Lack of seeds in the nearby market | 5.68 | 0.045 | -0.582 | 0.270 | 0.288 | -0.440 |
| Given less priority | 10.44 | 0.289 | 0.357 | 0.206 | 0.179 | 0.720 |
| Eigenvalues | 1.951 | 1.825 | 1.590 | 1.191 | 1.090 | |
| Total Variance explained (%) | 17.74 | 16.59 | 14.45 | 10.82 | 9.91 | |
| Barlett’s test of sphericity chi-square | 344.995*** | |||||
| Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Measure of sampling adequacy (KMO) | 0.637 | |||||
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