Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Land Use and Cover in the MATOPIBA Region, Brazil (1985–2055)

This study analyzes the changes in land use and land cover over time in the Porto Nacional micro-region, situated in the MATOPIBA agricultural frontier, from 1985 to 2055. It emphasizes the increasing anthropogenic pressure on the ecosystems of the Brazilian Cerrado. The primary goal of this research is to understand how the territory has transformed and to project future scenarios related to agricultural expansion, urbanization, and unplanned land use. The methodology incorporates geoprocessing techniques, spatio-temporal analysis, data from the MapBiomas platform, remote sensing imagery, and time series analysis. Seven categories of land use and land cover were examined, with a focus on forest formations, savannas, agricultural areas, and pastures. Descriptive statistics, trend graphs, and regression methods were used to project changes through 2055. The results indicate a significant reduction in native vegetation, particularly in savanna formations, which is closely linked to the expansion of agricultural, livestock, and urban areas. The model used to simulate vegetation changes over time showed high reliability (R² = 0.98), forecasting that human expansion will continue to encroach on native vegetation through 2055. This underscores the urgent need for territorial planning and public policies to ensure the sustainability of the Cerrado.