Adaptation for River Floods at Urban Level: Choosing Future Directions with Aware Climate Risk Assessment. A Case Study

Floods are among the most damaging natural hazards, threatening human safety and causing substantial economic losses. Their risk results from the interaction between hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, and has been increasing due to the rising frequency and intensity of extreme hydrometeorological events. This issue is particularly relevant in Mediterranean regions, where floods often affect small, densely populated, and highly urbanised basins.This study applies a comprehensive climate risk assessment to the Foglia River basin (Marche, Italy) using the framework and tools developed within the Horizon Europe CLIMAAX project. Locally developed flood hazard maps were integrated with exposure and vulnerability data, focusing on the city of Pesaro at the river mouth. Risk was quantified in terms of building damage and population exposure for different return periods.To further investigate changes in flood hazard, projected river discharge under climate scenarios was analysed. The results indicate a relative increase in flood recurrence exceeding 20% for the 5-, 10-, and 50-year return periods, suggesting a significant intensification of flood risk. The study provides spatially explicit estimates of potential economic losses and supports the refinement of regional climate adaptation strategies, offering valuable insights for the integration of climate risk considerations into urban and territorial planning.