Techno-Economic Assessment (TEA) and Sensitivity Analysis of Geothermal Power in Oman Using SAM (System Advisor Model)

The Sultanate of Oman enjoys plenty of solar energy and wind energy; both have been exploited successfully in the country. However, geothermal energy has not been exploited yet in Oman. This natural heat source deserves more studies to assess its technical potential and economic feasibility compared to other electricity generation technologies in Oman. The current study fills this gap by presenting a techno-economic assessment (TEA) of a small 30-MW geothermal power plant in Oman, operating on a binary (two-fluid) cycle, with a drilling depth of 2 km. The analysis was performed using the renowned software tool SAM (System Advisor Model) of the United States National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The current results suggest a levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of 8.68 cents/kWh (0.0868 US$/kWh) or 33.4 baisa/kWh (0.0334 OMR/kWh). When compared with electricity tariff or solar photovoltaic (PV) power purchase agreement (PPA) rates in Oman, it was found that geothermal-based electricity is too expensive. Furthermore, the estimated geothermal LCOE is more than three times the LCOE value of self-owned photovoltaic (PV) power systems in Oman, which is around 10 baisa/kWh (0.010 OMR/kWh). The estimated first-year electricity generation for the geothermal power plant model is 261.268 GWh/year, leading to a specific electricity generation of 8,709 kWh/kW/year. This is about five times the specific power generation from PV power plants. The study is augmented by sensitivity analyses and regression models to help understand the impact of multiple input parameters. The study provides novel results regarding decision-making for geothermal power investment in Oman.