Global TFR Dynamics Between 1990 and 2024: Between Demographic Transition Convergence and Post-Transition Uncertainties

Using a database of global total fertility rates (TFR) from 1990 to 2024, supplemented by a series of indicators, we can observe trends and explain them through cultural and socio-economic factors. Worldwide TFR dynamics show a clear distinction: low fertility (below replacement) in much of Europe, North America, and East Asia; high fertility in sub-Saharan Africa; and moderate fertility in countries at various stages of the demographic transition. Observed variations are explained by economic and social-determinants:GDP and Human Development Index are negatively correlated with TFR; high infant mortality rates correlate positively with TFR; and greater contraceptive prevalence and higher average maternal age at birth are associated with fertility declines. Cultural factors – such as dominant religion or official demographic policies – can modify overall trends, and the level of democratic freedom influences access to reproductive health information and services. These disparities reflect structural differences in socio-economic development, public health, gender equality and social policy.