Submitted:
15 April 2026
Posted:
17 April 2026
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Abstract
Keywords:
1. Introduction
1. Green Transition and Sustainable Development in a Macroeconomic Context
1.1. The Concept of Green Transition and Its Link to the Economy
- Decarbonization, meaning the gradual elimination of fossil fuels and their replacement with renewable energy sources (such as solar and wind power);
- Resource efficiency, which involves optimizing the use of resources and promoting the principles of the circular economy (reduce, reuse, recycle);
- Innovation and technology, referring to the development and adoption of green technologies, smart grids and cities, electric vehicle infrastructure, and sustainable industrial processes, among others;
- Economic transformation, which entails the creation of new sustainable jobs, the reallocation of investments, and the reform of financial systems to support sustainable growth;
- Policy and governance, through which governments introduce frameworks, incentives, and regulations to guide this transformation;
- Social inclusion (the so-called “just transition”), which means ensuring an equitable transition that “leaves no one behind,” creating decent jobs and protecting vulnerable communities.
- Energy and climate: greenhouse gas emissions; share of renewable energy; energy intensity of the economy; energy efficiency of buildings.
- Circular economy and resources: circular material use rate; waste generation and management; resource productivity.
- Sustainable transport and mobility: registrations of zero-emission vehicles; recharging infrastructure; use of public transport (rail and electric urban transport);
- Social and market indicators: green jobs; green finance (the percentage of public and private investments directed toward sustainable projects); energy poverty (the number of households that cannot afford adequate heating — a critical indicator for a “just transition”).
| Indicator | UE27 2023/2024 | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| GHG-reduction of greenhouse gas emissions | -20% vs 2013 | ↓ |
| RES (renewable energy sources) % | 24.5% | ↑ |
| Circular % | 11.8% | Stabil |
| ZEVs (new zero-emission vehicles) % | 14.5% | ↑ |
| Energy poverty % | 9.2% | ↓ |
1.2. Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and Economic Policy

1.3. Green Transition and Macro-Financial Stability
2. Monetary Policy and the Role of Central Banks in Green Transition
2.1. The Expansion of Central Banks’ Mandates
- climate change and the degradation of nature/biodiversity loss;
- radical or abrupt administrative mitigation measures (especially fiscal ones);
- disorderly transition, i.e., reactive interventions to physical climate risks;
- market behavior (households and firms) in adopting green solutions.
- understanding and assessing the impact of climate risks on inflation, the economy, and the financial-banking system, to design an orderly transition aligned with their mandate and statutory objectives;
- evaluating the impact of climate risks on price stability due to the exposure of key sectors (e.g., energy, agriculture, transport);
- ensuring the stability and resilience of the banking system through prudential supervision, particularly regarding its appropriate exposure to climate risks, especially those related to financing the transition to a green economy;
- supporting the government’s overall economic policy in the areas of sustainable development, macro-prudential stability, or energy transition;
- facilitating and “democratizing” access to knowledge, solutions, and information that help the public and businesses make the transition to a green economy;
- promoting sustainability by leading by example, reducing their own carbon footprint, maintaining a sustainable cash circulation process, and conducting social, educational, and environmental activities based on a transparent ESG agenda and voluntary sustainability reporting.
- multi-year programs and plans dedicated to the green transition and the integration of climate risks into central bank policies;
- inclusion of dedicated sustainability sections in strategies, annual reports, financial stability reports, and policy documents;
- adaptation of the operational framework (for example, climate criteria in asset portfolios and collateral frameworks) and analytical tools (climate scenarios and stress tests).
- A standalone directorate directly coordinated by the Governor (e.g., Bank of Greece);
- Centers of expertise on climate change and sustainability directly coordinated by the President/Governor (e.g., ECB);
- Coordination centers, either independent or within directorate-type structures (e.g., Banque de France);
- Project/program-based organization coordinated by an executive board member (Governor or Deputy Governor).
| Domains | Core responsibilities |
|---|---|
| Green transition | Green transition navigation, Fit for 55 stress-test |
| Physical climate impacts | Assessment of heightened physical risks |
| Nature-related risks | Development of a dedicated workstream on nature-related risks |
| Banking supervision | Deadline ICAAP (Internal Capital Adequacy Assessment Process) integration of climate risks and strengthened enforcement |
| Indicators | Publication of enhanced climate statistical indicators |
2.2. The SDGs Relevant to a Central Bank’s Mandate
- SDG 8 – Decent Work and Economic Growth: It sets targets for sustained economic growth and productivity, which are closely linked to the macroeconomic objectives pursued by monetary policy.
- SDG 13 – Climate Action: It requires the integration of climate risks into national and financial policies, calling for the adaptation of monetary and prudential policy tools.
- SDG 7 – Affordable and Clean Energy: It directly affects inflation through energy price dynamics and has significant implications for the scenarios used in macroeconomic modeling and stress testing.
- SDG 9 – Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure: It influences investment needs and the structure of capital, with implications for financing demand and sectoral risk profiles.
- SDG 11 – Sustainable Cities and Communities: It affects physical risks (such as floods and heatwaves) to urban infrastructure and the real estate market, which in turn influences the collateral used in monetary policy operations.
- SDG 12 and 15 – Responsible Consumption and Production; Life on Land: These connect to nature-related and biodiversity risks, which the NGFS and some European central banks have begun to integrate into their financial stability analyses.

- Risk channel: Climate change and nature degradation increase the likelihood of structural losses and episodes of heightened volatility. These developments affect price stability and the resilience of the financial system, requiring the inclusion of such risks in macroeconomic scenarios and stress tests.
- Public policy channel: Once governments embed the SDGs into legislation (through the European Green Deal, Fit for 55 packages, or national and international commitments), central banks incorporate these trajectories into their medium- and long-term macroeconomic projections and risk assessments.
- Capital allocation channel: Through the collateral framework, asset purchases, and potential green lending facilities, central banks can influence the relative cost of financing for activities that are either aligned or misaligned with the SDGs.

2.3. Green Monetary Policy Instruments and Mechanisms
- assessing the impact of ESG factors and aligning them with the mandate of price stability;
- implementing sustainable and responsible investment (SRI) strategies;
- integrating sustainability considerations into the management of owned asset portfolios;
- developing internal capacities, tools, and methodologies for integrating ESG factors and improving transparency (financial disclosure).
- They can manage the risks generated by climate change for the financial system and the economy as a whole;
- They can channel funds toward sustainable investments, thereby supporting the green transition;
- They can use their expertise to drive behavioral changes in the banking sector and the broader economy.
- Understanding and anticipating shocks resulting from the materialization of physical or transition risks by adjusting macroeconomic models and expanding access to high-quality statistical data necessary for running scenarios with these models;
- The capacity to assess and target assets issued by institutions with a credible climate or sustainability profile, based on a set of economic behavior criteria (low emission levels, ambitious carbon footprint reduction targets, and a transparent and consistent green transition management process);
- Structuring portfolios of green assets (corporate bonds) for the purpose of central bank collateral management in refinancing operations with commercial banks. The identified pattern in this context involves limiting holdings of such assets issued by non-financial corporations for collateral purposes, based on their level of compliance with relevant legislation (for example, the CSRD).
- the introduction of green refinancing operations, successfully launched at the end of 2025, allowing commercial banks to benefit from preferential rates for loans directed toward green investments, particularly in renewable energy and building renovation;
- updating the collateral framework to exclude assets issued by companies involved in activities that are permanently harmful to the environment, adjusting haircuts to reflect climate risks, and limiting the acceptance as collateral of assets with very high emissions;
- realigning asset portfolios with the objectives of the Paris Agreement through active rebalancing, engagement-based approaches, and the exclusion of entities whose activities are structurally incompatible with the green transition.
2.4. Indicators for Assessing the Contribution of Monetary Policy to Green Transition
- monetary policy indicators;
- indicators derived from the interaction between monetary policy and green transition measures; and
- specific green transition indicators.
2.4.1. Relevant Indicators for Assessing Monetary Policy in the Green Transition
- = neutral interest rate (approximately 2%),
- = current inflation rate,
- = inflation target (2%),
- output gap = deviation of actual output from potential output.
| Asset class | Portfolio weight | Climate classification |
|---|---|---|
| Sovereign bonds | 45% | Neutral |
| Corporate bonds | 18% | 35% carbon-intensive (“brown”) assets (coal, oil) |
| Green bonds | 8% | Green (aligned with the Paris Agreement) |
| TLTROs (loans to banks) | 25% | 12% Green TLTROs (2025) |
| Other assets | 4% | Mixed |
2.4.2. Specific Green Transition Indicators and Their Limitations from a Monetary Policy Perspective
2.4.3. Comparative Analysis: Common and Divergent Indicators
| Convergence (they reinforce each other) | Divergence (risks are conflicting for monetary policy) | Convergence (mutually reinforcing, with positive effects on the economy and financial stability) |
| Green jobs → + economic growth (GDP growth) | Carbon tax → +higher inflation | Green jobs → + economic growth (GDP growth) |
| Green bonds → stability | Stranding assets → loses | Green bonds → stability |
| Renovations → ↓ reduced energy costs | Physical risks → acute damages | Renovations → ↓ reduced energy costs |
3. Synergies, Challenges and Perspectives for Integrating the SDGs
3.1. Synergies Between the SDGs and Macroeconomic Stability
3.2. Tensions: Trade-offs Between Inflation, Financial Stability and Climate Objectives
3.2.1. Challenges, Dilemmas for Central Banks and Other International Approaches
3.3. Perspectives and Recommendations for Future Policies
3.3.1. Presentation of the Basel III Framework
3.3.2. Implementation in the EU and the Link with the SDGs

4. Conclusions, Limitations and Future Research
5. Limitations of the Study
- The analysis relies predominantly on official documents (ECB, NGFS, Basel Committee) and a few recent policy and advocacy contributions, which may introduce a certain institutional or normative bias in the interpretation of the role of central banks.
- The approach is predominantly qualitative, without its own econometric modelling of the relationship between the green transition, the SDGs, inflation, and financial stability. This limits the ability to quantitatively estimate the magnitude of effects and to rigorously test the formulated hypotheses.
- The international comparative analysis is selective, focusing mainly on the ECB, the Fed, and the NGFS, without providing an in-depth examination of the experience of other relevant central banks (for example, the Bank of England, Banque de France, or central banks in emerging economies).
6. Directions for Future Research
- The development of macroeconomic and financial stability models that explicitly integrate relevant SDGs (especially SDGs 7, 8, 9, 11, 12, 13, and 15) into central banks’ reaction functions, to quantitatively assess the trade-offs between price stability, financial stability, and green transition objectives.
- The practical need to develop an innovative instrument within the framework of this doctoral thesis, an analytical framework designed to measure and manage the involvement of central banks in the global transition toward a sustainable economy, using the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as the primary inputs and reference indicators.
- The expansion and deepening of climate scenario analyses by including physical risks over long horizons, policy failure scenarios (“ policy failure”), as well as reverse stress tests that start from critical loss levels and derive the combinations of shocks that could generate them.
- Systematic comparative studies on green monetary policy instruments (green refinancing facilities, collateral adjustments, Paris-aligned asset portfolios) across different jurisdictions, to identify best practices, effects on monetary policy transmission, and potential risks of financial fragmentation.
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
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| Scenario | Detailed Description | Emissions Reduction | GDP Impact (2023–2030) | Energy Investments | Main Risks | Financial Sector Resilience |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline (Ordered Transition) | Successful implementation of the Fit for 55 package: full EU policies in place, smooth transition supported by substantial fiscal measures. | 55% by 2030 | +11% cumulative (average annual growth 1.5%) | €3.7 trillion cumulative (renewable energy, efficiency, grids) | Low transition risks, orderly adjustment | Resilient; minimal capital losses (under 1%) |
| A1 (Adversary Transition) | Base + sudden shock “run-on-brown”: abrupt correction in prices of carbon-intensive assets (e.g. coal, oil), accelerated strict regulations. | 55% achieved (with delay) | -5-10% cumulative (GDP shock -3% in 2025-26) | Maintained, but quickly reallocated | “Brown” asset losses 15-25%, energy inflation +20% | Moderate vulnerabilities; capital losses 3-5% of banks |
| A2 (Combined Adverse) | A1 + severe macro risks: persistent inflation, prolonged recession, geopolitical shocks (e.g. trade fragmentation), intensified physical disasters. | 55% facing significant difficulty | a cumulative contraction of 15–20% (with an average annual recession of -4%) | Disruptive (with project delays ranging from 30% to 50%) | Systemic losses, accompanied by liquidity stress and corporate defaults | Systemic vulnerabilities, with aggregate capital losses estimated at 8–12% |
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