Assessment of Pollution Risks on the Grande Côte of Senegal in the Context of Offshore Oil and Gas Exploitation

Recent offshore hydrocarbon discoveries along the Senegalese–Mauritanian margin increase the need to quantify oil-spill risk under the highly dynamic circulation of the southern Canary Current upwelling system. We investigate seasonal pollutant dispersion along the Senegalese Grande Côte using Lagrangian particle-tracking experiments forced by CROCO ocean model outputs. The analysis focuses on the role of wind-driven circulation, Ekman transport, and upwelling variability in controlling cross-shore and alongshore transport pathways. Results show a strong seasonal contrast. During the cold season (January–May), intensified northerly winds drive coastal upwelling and offshore Ekman transport, enhancing surface divergence and promoting the export of particles away from the coast. This regime limits nearshore accumulation but favors broader offshore dispersion over the continental shelf. In contrast, during the warm season (June–September), weakened upwelling-favorable winds and the establishment of anticyclonic circulation north of the Cape induce onshore transport and coastal retention. Particle-release experiments reveal enhanced trapping and accumulation along the Grande Côte during this period. The Kayar region and the Cape Verde Peninsula exhibit relatively higher exposure during the cold season, whereas the inner shelf along the Grande Côte becomes particularly vulnerable during the warm season. These findings demonstrate that seasonal wind forcing and associated Ekman dynamics exert first-order control on oil-spill pathways. Incorporating this variability into contingency planning is essential, as the inner continental shelf of the Senegalese Grande Côte is a dynamically sensitive, high-risk zone under the warm-season circulation regime.