Immune-Inspired Dynamic Modeling of Supply Chain Resilience: Organizational Memory, Adaptation, and System Recovery under Disruptions

Persistent and systemic disruptions—such as pandemics, geopolitical crises, and climate-related events—have exposed critical vulnerabilities in global supply chains, highlighting the urgent need for dynamic and adaptive resilience strategies. This paper proposes a novel immune system-inspired dynamic model for designing resilient, adaptive, and financially viable supply chains under severe disruptions. The model integrates innate and adaptive response mechanisms, including organizational memory as a dynamic capability that enables supply chains to learn from past disruptions and improve future responses. Unlike traditional models focused solely on structural redundancy or flexibility, this framework combines operational, financial, and learning dimensions within a unified system modeled through nonlinear differential equations. To validate the model, we conducted a scenario-based analysis, simulating three configurations: (1) a Total System Collapse without adaptation or learning, (2) a Baseline Resilience scenario with innate responses only, and (3) an advanced scenario with active organizational memory and adaptive mechanisms. Results demonstrate that the presence of learning and adaptive capacities significantly enhances both operational and financial resilience, reducing disruption intensity and accelerating recovery. Furthermore, a comprehensive sensitivity analysis was performed on three critical parameters: rate of active adaptation, organizational memory accumulation rate, and supply chain vulnerability. Findings reveal that higher adaptation rates and stronger organizational memory dramatically improve supply chain resilience, while higher structural vulnerability leads to systemic failures that cannot be mitigated by reactive measures alone. This study offers a quantitative and interdisciplinary contribution to supply chain resilience theory and provides practical guidelines for managers and policymakers to invest in adaptive capabilities, institutionalize learning processes, and reinforce structural robustness. The proposed model serves as a foundation for designing next-generation resilient supply chains, capable of surviving and thriving under persistent global uncertainty.