4.3. Direct Effects of ESG (H3)
Table 5 tests H1a by examining the effect of ESG disclosure (ESGDI) on Return on Assets (ROA) in 2018 and 2023. ESGDI shows a non-significant effect in both years (2018: β = -0.01, p = 0.33; 2023: β = 0.00, p = 0.83), providing no support for H1a. Bank size remains a consistent predictor of ROA, underscoring the role of scale in Islamic bank profitability. In 2018, Muslim population share (β = 0.03, p = 0.01) and loan-deposit ratio (β = 0.00, p = 0.01) are also significant, while in 2023, board size (β = -0.01, p = 0.05) shows a negative association. These findings align with studies such as those by [
22,
23], who found that ESG’s financial impact is context-dependent. The lack of significance suggests that ESG disclosure alone may not enhance profitability without broader institutional or stakeholder alignment, as noted in previous research [
24].
Table 6 evaluates H1a using ROE as the dependent variable. In 2018, ESGDI shows a non-significant positive effect (β = 0.05, p = 0.64), with the model explaining 39% of ROE variation (R² = 0.39, F = 5.65, p < 0.01), providing no support for H1a. Bank size is a significant control (β = 0.03, p = 0.02). By 2023, ESGDI remains non-significant (β = 0.07, p = 0.56), although the model fit improves (R² = 0.61, F = 5.11, p < 0.01). In this period, bank size (p = 0.01), inflation (p = 0.04), and Muslim population share (p < 0.01) emerge as significant predictors. These results reflect broader mixed findings in ESG literature [
24,
25].
Table 6.
Baseline OLS Regression of ROE on ESG Disclosure and Controls (2018, 2023, N = 30).
Table 6.
Baseline OLS Regression of ROE on ESG Disclosure and Controls (2018, 2023, N = 30).
| |
|
2018 |
|
|
2023 |
|
| |
Beta |
t-value |
Sig. |
Beta |
t-value |
Sig. |
| ESGDI |
.05 |
0.47 |
0.64 |
.07 |
0.60 |
0.56 |
| ID |
.04 |
0.45 |
0.66 |
-.08 |
-1.50 |
0.15 |
| FBM |
.04 |
0.26 |
0.80 |
.28 |
1.89 |
0.07 |
| IO |
.05 |
0.60 |
0.56 |
-.02 |
-0.29 |
0.78 |
| logA |
.03 |
2.67 |
0.02 |
0 |
2.89 |
0.01 |
| GDP |
.56 |
0.57 |
0.57 |
-.36 |
-0.80 |
0.43 |
| Infla |
-.57 |
-0.74 |
0.46 |
.43 |
2.20 |
0.04 |
| Mus |
.15 |
1.44 |
0.17 |
.35 |
3.50 |
0.00 |
| LDR |
.03 |
1.63 |
0.12 |
-.00 |
-0.46 |
0.65 |
| logB |
-.00 |
-0.13 |
0.89 |
-.00 |
-0.57 |
0.58 |
| _cons |
-.15 |
-1.10 |
0.28 |
-.29 |
-1.79 |
0.09 |
| R² |
|
0.39 |
|
|
0.61 |
|
| Root MSE |
|
.06 |
|
|
.05 |
|
|
F value |
|
5.65 |
|
|
5.11 |
|
| Sig. |
|
0.00 |
|
|
0.00 |
|
Table 7.
Baseline OLS Regression of TQ on ESG Disclosure and Controls (2018, 2023, N = 30).
Table 7.
Baseline OLS Regression of TQ on ESG Disclosure and Controls (2018, 2023, N = 30).
| |
|
2018 |
|
|
2023 |
|
| |
Beta |
t-value |
Sig. |
Beta |
t-value |
Sig. |
| ESGDI |
-1.23 |
-1.55 |
0.14 |
-1.43 |
-0.99 |
0.33 |
| ID |
.07 |
0.09 |
0.93 |
.07 |
0.09 |
0.93 |
| FBM |
-.69 |
-0.45 |
0.66 |
-.88 |
-0.35 |
0.73 |
| IO |
.71 |
1.15 |
0.27 |
1.48 |
1.87 |
0.08 |
| logA |
.04 |
0.39 |
0.70 |
.18 |
1.04 |
0.31 |
| GDP |
5.13 |
0.44 |
0.66 |
.00 |
0.00 |
1.00 |
| Infla |
-1.75 |
-0.21 |
0.83 |
-.36 |
-0.16 |
0.87 |
| Mus |
-.44 |
-0.44 |
0.66 |
.35 |
0.30 |
0.77 |
| LDR |
-.24 |
-1.52 |
0.14 |
-.30 |
-3.06 |
0.01 |
| logB |
-.01 |
-0.13 |
0.90 |
.12 |
2.16 |
0.04 |
| _cons |
1.33 |
1.09 |
0.29 |
-.60 |
-0.32 |
0.75 |
| R² |
|
0.31 |
|
|
0.36 |
|
| Root MSE |
|
.51 |
|
|
.65 |
|
|
F value |
|
2.06 |
|
|
3.76 |
|
| Sig. |
|
0.08 |
|
|
0.01 |
|
In 2018, although the model shows moderate explanatory power (R² = 0.31; F = 2.06, p = 0.08), ESGDI remains statistically insignificant (β = –1.23, p = 0.14), aligning with [
26], who found that ESG signals require time, and, especially, investor engagement, to be accurately valued in firm performance. Similar null results are observed in 2023, where model fit slightly improves (R² = 0.36; F = 3.76, p = 0.01), and ESGDI again shows no significant influence (β = –1.43, p = 0.33). These findings echo [
22], who argue that in emerging markets, the disconnect between ESG transparency and firm valuation may stem from weak investor awareness and information asymmetry. The regression results of [
27] show that the ESG risk score has an insignificant negative impact on Tobin’s Q (market-based performance) and the environmental risk scores, social risk scores and governance risk scores have an insignificant positive impact on the Tobin’s Q. Here in the current paper, H1c is not supported, as ESG disclosure does not consistently translate into higher Tobin’s Q in either period.
Table 8 tests H1c by exploring whether ESG disclosure (ESGDI) influences bank risk, measured by the Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), in 2018 and 2023. In 2018, the regression is significant (R² = 0.57; p < 0.01), but ESGDI is not a predictor of CAR (β = 0.01, p = 0.93). Bank size (β = 0.01, p = 0.03) shows a significant positive effect, while the loan–deposit ratio (β = –0.01, p = 0.03) exhibits a significant negative association. The 2023 model shows similar null results for ESGDI (β = –0.03, p = 0.69), but the overall model is not statistically significant (R² = 0.26; p = 0.42). These results indicate that ESG disclosure alone does not directly enhance capital buffers. [
24] presents comparable findings. [
28] identify a significant positive correlation between ESG disclosure and CAR in Central European banks, yet their analysis does not establish causal effects. Accordingly, the analysis does not support H1c.
Table 8.
Baseline OLS Regression of CAR on ESG Disclosure and Controls (2018, 2023, N = 30).
Table 8.
Baseline OLS Regression of CAR on ESG Disclosure and Controls (2018, 2023, N = 30).
| |
|
2018 |
|
|
2023 |
|
| |
Beta |
t-value |
Sig. |
Beta |
t-value |
Sig. |
| ESGDI |
.01 |
0.09 |
0.93 |
-.03 |
-0.41 |
0.69 |
| ID |
.04 |
1.30 |
0.21 |
.03 |
0.66 |
0.52 |
| FBM |
.04 |
0.45 |
0.66 |
.05 |
0.33 |
0.75 |
| IO |
-.04 |
-1.16 |
0.26 |
-.03 |
-0.48 |
0.64 |
| logA |
.01 |
2.28 |
0.03 |
.00 |
0.24 |
0.81 |
| GDP |
-.38 |
-0.90 |
0.38 |
-.29 |
-0.83 |
0.41 |
| Infla |
-.61 |
-1.73 |
0.10 |
.09 |
0.82 |
0.43 |
| Mus |
.07 |
1.65 |
0.12 |
.01 |
0.23 |
0.82 |
| LDR |
-.01 |
-2.39 |
0.03 |
0 |
-0.15 |
0.88 |
| logB |
-.00 |
-0.53 |
0.60 |
0 |
-1.33 |
0.20 |
| _cons |
.14 |
3.44 |
0 |
.22 |
2.54 |
0.02 |
| R² |
|
0.57 |
|
|
0.26 |
|
| Root MSE |
|
.03 |
|
|
.03 |
|
|
F value |
|
5.31 |
|
|
1.09 |
|
| Sig. |
|
0.00 |
|
|
0.42 |
|
4.4. Moderation Analyses
Table 9 assesses the moderating effects of board independence, female board membership, and institutional ownership on the ESGD–ROA relationship (H2a–H4a). In 2018, institutional ownership significantly strengthens this link (β = 0.32, p = 0.04), supporting H4a and aligning with prior findings that highlight its positive role in ESG-related financial performance [
29,
30]. By contrast, board independence (p = 0.90) and female board membership (p = 0.24) show no significant moderation, consistent with mixed evidence reported by [
30]. (2023). By 2023, all moderating effects lose significance, suggesting governance characteristics’ diminishing influence as ESG becomes more institutionalized.
Table 10.
Moderation of Independent Directors, Female Board Member and Institutional Ownership on the ESGD–ROE Relationship (2018, 2023, N = 30).
Table 10.
Moderation of Independent Directors, Female Board Member and Institutional Ownership on the ESGD–ROE Relationship (2018, 2023, N = 30).
| |
|
2018 |
|
|
2023 |
|
| |
Beta |
t-value |
Sig. |
Beta |
t-value |
Sig. |
| ESGDI |
-0.09 |
-0.85 |
0.41 |
0.07 |
0.42 |
0.68 |
| ID |
-0.09 |
-0.85 |
0.41 |
-0.09 |
-1.01 |
0.33 |
| FBM |
0.16 |
1.08 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
1.76 |
0.1 |
| ESGDIxID |
0.02 |
0.34 |
0.74 |
-0.02 |
-0.32 |
0.75 |
| ESGDIxFBM |
-1.83 |
-3.52 |
0 |
-0.26 |
-0.36 |
0.72 |
| ESGDIxIO |
2.19 |
1.77 |
0.1 |
0.54 |
0.22 |
0.83 |
| IO |
0.7 |
1.31 |
0.21 |
0.04 |
0.05 |
0.96 |
| logA |
0.01 |
2.81 |
0.01 |
0.04 |
2.24 |
0.04 |
| GDP |
-0.91 |
-0.65 |
0.52 |
-0.4 |
-0.69 |
0.5 |
| Infla |
0.31 |
0.27 |
0.79 |
0.43 |
1.98 |
0.07 |
| Mus |
0.29 |
1.97 |
0.07 |
0.36 |
2.35 |
0.03 |
| LDR |
0.01 |
0.88 |
0.39 |
0 |
-0.33 |
0.74 |
| logB |
-0.01 |
-0.21 |
0.84 |
-0.02 |
-0.45 |
0.66 |
| _cons |
-0.16 |
-0.88 |
0.39 |
-0.24 |
-1.3 |
0.21 |
| R² |
|
0.6 |
|
|
0.62 |
|
| Root MSE |
|
0.05 |
|
|
0.02 |
|
|
F value |
|
7.22 |
|
|
4.25 |
|
| Sig. |
|
0 |
|
|
0 |
|
Table 11.
Moderation of Independent Directors, Female Board Member and Institutional Ownership on the ESGD–TQ Relationship (2018, 2023, N = 30).
Table 11.
Moderation of Independent Directors, Female Board Member and Institutional Ownership on the ESGD–TQ Relationship (2018, 2023, N = 30).
| |
|
2018 |
|
|
2023 |
|
| |
Beta |
t-value |
Sig. |
Beta |
t-value |
Sig. |
| ESGDI |
0.49 |
0.46 |
0.65 |
-1.33 |
-0.71 |
0.49 |
| ID |
0.63 |
0.79 |
0.44 |
0.3 |
0.32 |
0.75 |
| FBM |
-1.53 |
-0.92 |
0.37 |
-1.8 |
-0.68 |
0.51 |
| ESGDIxID |
0.72 |
1 |
0.33 |
1.72 |
2.2 |
0.04 |
| ESGDIxFBM |
6.67 |
1.2 |
0.25 |
6.47 |
0.84 |
0.41 |
| ESGDIxIO |
-26.7 |
-2.2 |
0.04 |
-12.58 |
-0.54 |
0.6 |
| IO |
4.88 |
1 |
0.33 |
5.2 |
1.14 |
0.27 |
| logA |
0.03 |
0.33 |
0.74 |
0.15 |
0.81 |
0.43 |
| GDP |
16.21 |
1.14 |
0.27 |
-0.53 |
-0.09 |
0.93 |
| Infla |
-11.52 |
-1.08 |
0.3 |
0.24 |
0.1 |
0.92 |
| Mus |
-1.97 |
-1.36 |
0.19 |
0.5 |
0.35 |
0.73 |
| LDR |
-0.29 |
-1.85 |
0.08 |
-0.28 |
-2.35 |
0.03 |
| logB |
0.04 |
0.07 |
0.94 |
1.74 |
2.07 |
0.06 |
| _cons |
2.12 |
1.19 |
0.25 |
-3.95 |
-1.47 |
0.16 |
| R² |
|
0.4 |
|
|
0.45 |
|
| Root MSE |
|
0.52 |
|
|
0.66 |
|
|
F value |
|
2.95 |
|
|
6.08 |
|
| Sig. |
|
0.02 |
|
|
0 |
|
Table 10 assesses whether governance mechanisms moderate the effect of ESG disclosure on ROE. In 2018, the interaction term ESGDI×FBM is statistically significant (β = -1.83, p = 0.00), while ESGDI×IO shows a marginal effect (β = 2.19, p = 0.08). ESGDI×ID remains non-significant (β = 0.02, p = 0.74). By 2023, all ESGDI interaction terms, ESGDI×ID (β = -0.32, p = 0.75), ESGDI×FBM (β = -0.26, p = 0.72), and ESGDI×IO (β = 0.22, p = 0.83), are statistically insignificant. Although the model's explanatory power slightly improves in 2023 (R² = 0.62 vs. 0.60 in 2018), no governance variable significantly moderates the ESG–ROE link in that year. These results suggest that profitability benefits from ESG disclosure are not consistently contingent on board independence, gender diversity, or institutional ownership. This aligns with prior findings that ROE may respond more slowly to ESG interventions, particularly in Islamic or emerging market contexts [
31,
32,
33].
ESG disclosure (ESGDI) remains insignificant in predicting market value (Tobin’s Q) in both 2018 and 2023 (2018: β = 0.49, p = 0.65; 2023: β = -1.33, p = 0.49). In 2018, the ESGDI×IO interaction term is statistically significant (β = -2.67, p = 0.03), while the other governance interaction terms, ESGDI×ID (p = 0.33) and ESGDI×FBM (p = 0.25), remain insignificant. In 2023, ESGDI×ID shows a significant positive moderation effect (β = 1.72, p = 0.04), whereas ESGDI×FBM and ESGDI×IO remain non-significant. The R² improves only slightly from 0.40 to 0.45. These results suggest that governance mechanisms do not moderate the ESG-market value relationship, which aligns with prior findings in European banking [
34] and broader governance studies [
35] showing limited or inconsistent moderation effects of governance on ESG-value links.
Table 12 examines whether governance characteristics moderate the impact of ESG disclosure on Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR). In 2018, all interaction terms are statistically insignificant. In 2023, ESGDI×ID (β = –0.04, p = 0.44), ESGDI×FBM (β = 0.69, p = 0.25), and ESGDI×IO (β = 0.42, p = 0.16) also remain insignificant, indicating no moderating effect. The model explains 51% of CAR variation in 2023 (R² = 0.51), slightly lower than in 2018 (R² = 0.63). These results suggest that governance mechanisms do not significantly enhance ESG’s impact on capital adequacy over time. These results highlight that governance mechanisms become increasingly effective in enhancing ESG outcomes as sustainability practices mature. This is consistent with prior findings emphasizing the role of independent directors and board gender diversity in improving ESG-related risk management and firm resilience [
36,
37].