Public Pensions, Trade Unions and Employment in Manufacturing

Demographic decline in many OECD countries is widely indorsed as the principal source of hurling public pension disbursements, whilst trade unions are often blames for staunch antagonism to any transformations that might alleviate the fiscal encumbrance. Building on the premise that financialization is state-acquiesced, with the state reckoned fundamental for market integration, and social regulation of markets against market failures. How then inter-generational equity should be addressed? This work tests the hypothesis that deindustrialization (measured as the tumbling proportion of manufacturing employment) and lower trade-union density are quintessential channels through which demographic change transmutes into ascending pension outlays. Using OECD data from 1960 to 2023, the study utilises longitudinal and panel quantile statistical methods to dissect these links across assorted pension-system clusters (total, mandatory private, mandatory public, mandatory public + voluntary, and mandatory public + private). The study highlights the mediating role of labour market structure to pension financing.