Export Diversification and Competitiveness in Global Maize Trade: Empirical Evidence in an Era of Global Economic Shifts

The study aimed to analyze the diversification and competitiveness of maize exports from the United States, Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine over the period 2020–2024. A quantitative, descriptive design was adopted, using secondary data from Trade Map. Export market concentration was measured with the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index, while international competitiveness was assessed through the normalized revealed comparative advantage, computed by country, year and main destination. The results indicated clearly differentiated patterns. The United States exhibited an increasingly concentrated structure centred on Mexico, with strong advantages only in Japan and Colombia, which heightened structural vulnerability. Brazil preserved low concentra-tion levels and displayed robust, widely distributed advantages in Middle Eastern and Asian markets. Argentina combined mostly favourable diversification with stable ad-vantages in Asia, Africa and South America, although a mild upward trend in concen-tration emerged toward 2024. Ukraine showed acceptable diversification but moderate and volatile competitiveness, constrained by logistical and geopolitical disruptions, particularly in trade with Türkiye. The study concluded that export sustainability de-pended on the joint dynamics of competitive specialisation and destination diversifica-tion, with Brazil and Argentina achieving the most balanced profiles. It was recom-mended that each country implement differentiated strategies in market risk manage-ment, logistical upgrading, macroeconomic and regulatory stabilisation, and penetration of emerging markets in order to reduce structural vulnerabilities in the global maize trade.