Submitted:
13 November 2025
Posted:
13 November 2025
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Abstract
Keywords:
1. Introduction
2. Literature Review and Theoretical Framework
2.1. Literature Review
2.1.1. Core-Periphery Structure Pattern
2.1.2. Spatial Effect of Platform Economy
2.1.3. The Relationship Between E-Commerce and Logistics
2.2. Theoretical Framework and Research Hypotheses
2.2.1. Asymmetric Frictions and Symmetry Breaking
2.2.2. The Nonlinear Path of Decoupling-Recoupling
2.2.3. Research Hypotheses
3. Research Design
3.1. Data Sources and Variable Descriptions
3.2. Delimitation of System Boundaries
3.3. Measurement of Functional Service Transition
3.4. Model Design
4. Empirical Results and Analysis
4.1. Descriptive Statistics and Spatial Pattern Analysis
4.2. Analysis of Growth Rate Differences Among Core Variables
4.3. Analysis of Functional Transformation and Network Recoupling
4.3.1. Analysis of Growth Rates of Functional Logistics Indicators
4.3.2. Structural Break Test
4.3.3. Correlation Analysis Before and After the Breakpoint
4.4. Spatial Econometric Model Results
4.4.1. Eastern Model: Collaborative Development-Oriented Regional Network
4.4.2. Central and Western Model: Formation of Exogenous Functional Service Nodes
4.5 Robustness Tests
4.5.1. Replace the Core Explanatory Variable
4.5.2. Reduce the Control Variables
4.5.3. Increase the Control Variables
4.5.4. Exclude Some Provinces
4.6. Competitive Hypothesis Test: Geographic Location or Digitalization Level?
5. Discussion
5.1. Summary of Core Findings
5.2. Systemic Functional Dependency

5.3. Universality of the Mechanism and China’s Role as a Natural Laboratory
5.4. Policy Implications
6. Conclusions and Future Directions
6.1. Research Summary
6.2. Future Directions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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| Variable Type | Variable Name | Symbol | Measurement Method | Data Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dependent Variable | Logistics Industry Value-Added | logistics_gdp | The logistics industry's overall economic output and scale in a region | China Statistical Yearbook of the Tertiary Industry |
| ln_logistics_gdp | Log of logistics_gdp | Author's Specifications | ||
| Independent Variable | Gross Merchandise Volume | ecom | The overall scale and activity level of e-commerce (virtual system) in a province | China Statistical Yearbook |
| ln_ecom | Log of ecom | Author's Specifications | ||
| Proxy Variable for Functional Nodes | Freight Volume | / | The total tonnage of goods actually transported in a region within one year | China Statistical Yearbook of the Tertiary Industry |
| Freight Turnover Volume | / | The product of freight volume (in tons) and average transportation distance (in kilometers) | ||
| Express Delivery Volume | ln_express_delivery_volume | The total number of express packages that a region handles in a year | ||
| Control Variables | per capita GDP | ln_per_capita_gdp | Log of the level of regional economic development | China Statistical Yearbook of the Tertiary Industry |
| Industry structure | IS | The proportion of the value added by the tertiary industry to the value added by the secondary industry | ||
| Digitalization Level | DL | The proportion of the tertiary industry's value-added to the secondary industry's value-added | Provincial Statistical Yearbooks of China | |
| Group/Time Variables | east | / | Dummy variable. It is 1 if the province is in the eastern region and 0 if it is not. | Author's Specifications |
| Central/Western | / | Dummy variable. It is 1 if the province is in the central, western, or northeastern regions, and 0 if it is not. | ||
| post_period | / | A dummy variable. If the year is between 2018 and 2022, it equals 1. If the year is between 2013 and 2017, it equals 0. |
| Primary Indicator | Secondary Indicator | Meaning | Unit | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Digital infrastructure | Mobile Phone Penetration Rate (MPPR) | Completeness of communication infrastructure | Department/100 people | 0.0662487 |
| Internet Broadband Access Subscribers (IBASN) | Degree of internet penetration | 10,000 households | 0.1711851 | |
| Digital innovation | R&D Intensity (RDI) | Emphasis on and investment in R&D | % | 0.330708 |
| Industrial digitalization | Proportion of E-Commerce Active Enterprises (EEPT) | Speed of transformation in e-commerce | % | 0.0615361 |
| Digital industrialization | Software Revenue to GDP Ratio (SRGDP) | Optimization of economic structure | % | 0.370322 |
| Variable | Obs | Mean | Std.Dev. | Min | Max |
| ln_logistics_gdp | 100 | 7.312 | 0.804 | 5 | 8.499 |
| ln_ecom | 100 | 8.733 | 1.172 | 5.17 | 10.767 |
| DL | 100 | 0.307 | 0.154 | 0.091 | 0.972 |
| IS | 100 | 1.822 | 1.169 | 0.754 | 5.283 |
| ln_per_capita_gdp | 100 | 11.356 | 0.402 | 10.482 | 12.156 |
| ln_logistics_gdp | 200 | 6.665 | 0.756 | 4.307 | 8.222 |
| ln_ecom | 200 | 7.213 | 1.125 | 3.564 | 9.561 |
| DL | 200 | 0.16 | 0.055 | 0.064 | 0.313 |
| IS | 200 | 1.215 | 0.242 | 0.665 | 1.953 |
| ln_per_capita_gdp | 200 | 10.791 | 0.291 | 10.05 | 11.477 |
| obs1 | obs2 | Mean1 | Mean2 | dif | St Err | t value | p value | |
| ln_logistics_gdp b~1 | 200 | 100 | 6.665 | 7.312 | -.647 | 0.095 | -6.85 | 0 |
| ln_ecom by east: 0 1 | 200 | 100 | 7.213 | 8.733 | -1.52 | 0.14 | -10.9 | 0 |
| DL by east: 0 1 | 200 | 100 | 0.161 | 0.307 | -.146 | 0.012 | -12 | 0 |
| IS by east: 0 1 | 200 | 100 | 1.215 | 1.822 | -.608 | 0.086 | -7.05 | 0 |
| ln_per_capita_gdp ~1 | 200 | 100 | 10.792 | 11.356 | -.565 | 0.041 | -13.9 | 0 |
| Indicator Category | Indicator Name | 2013-2022 CAGR | Interpretation of Indicator Functions |
| Traditional Logistics System | Freight Volume | 2.44% | Slow growth of traditional logistics demand, which is caused by the size of the local real economy. |
| Freight Turnover Volume | 2.30% | Slow growth of traditional cargo network throughput | |
| Parcel Economy System | Express Delivery Volume | 32.21% | The number of parcels being processed is growing quickly because of the national e-commerce network. |
| (1) | |
| ln_logistics_gdp | |
| ln_ecom | -0.0763** |
| (0.0338) | |
| 0.post2018 | 0 |
| (.) | |
| 1.post2018 | 3.129* |
| (1.697) | |
| 0.post2018#c.ln_ecom | 0 |
| (.) | |
| 1.post2018#c.ln_ecom | 0.0669* |
| (0.0348) | |
| IS | 0.0493 |
| (0.123) | |
| 0.post2018#c.IS | 0 |
| (.) | |
| 1.post2018#c.IS | -0.191 |
| (0.150) | |
| dl | 1.172 |
| (1.021) | |
| 0.post2018#c.DL | 0 |
| (.) | |
| 1.post2018#c.DL | -0.840 |
| (0.683) | |
| ln_per_capita_gdp | 0.974*** |
| (0.148) | |
| 0.post2018#c.ln_per_capita_gdp | 0 |
| (.) | |
| 1.post2018#c.ln_per_capita_gdp | -0.296* |
| (0.155) | |
| _cons | -3.542** |
| (1.509) | |
| N | 200 |
| R2 | 0.623 |
| adj. R2 | 0.562 |
| Variables | (1) | (2) | Variables | (1) | (2) |
| (1) ln_Central_Western_exp~e | 1.000 | (1) ln_Central_Western_exp~e | 1.000 | ||
| (2) ln_national_ec~l | 0.916 | 1.000 | (2) ln_national_ec~l | 0.947 | 1.000 |
| (0.084) | (0.004) | ||||
| (2013-2016) | (2017-2022) | ||||
| Variables | (1) | (2) | Variables | (1) | (2) |
| (1) ln_Central_Western_fre~r | 1.000 | (1) ln_Central_Western_fre~r | 1.000 | ||
| (2) ln_national_ec~l | 0.654 | 1.000 | (2) ln_national_ec~l | 0.902 | 1.000 |
| (0.159) | (0.098) | ||||
| (2013-2018) | (2019-2022) | ||||
| (1) | (2) | |
| East | Central/Western | |
| ln_logistics_gdp | ln_logistics_gdp | |
| W_ln_ecom | 0.152** | -0.0155 |
| (0.0664) | (0.0629) | |
| ln_ecom | 0.204** | -0.0638 |
| (0.0736) | (0.0745) | |
| DL | -0.973** | 0.429 |
| (0.332) | (1.212) | |
| IS | 0.144 | 0.0815 |
| (0.0948) | (0.163) | |
| ln_per_capita_gdp | -0.0636 | 1.037*** |
| (0.201) | (0.348) | |
| _cons | 4.970** | -4.115 |
| (1.679) | (3.292) | |
| N | 100 | 200 |
| R2 | 0.736 | 0.605 |
| adj. R2 | 0.722 | 0.594 |
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | |
| East | Central/Western | East | Central/Western | |
| ln_logistics_gdp | ln_logistics_gdp | ln_logistics_gdp | ln_logistics_gdp | |
| W_ln_express_delivery_volume | 0.207* | -0.458* | ||
| (0.0986) | (0.230) | |||
| ln_express_delivery_volume | 0.00784 | 0.358 | ||
| (0.0609) | (0.234) | |||
| ln_ecom | 0.226*** | -0.0665 | ||
| (0.0655) | (0.0753) | |||
| W_ln_ecom | 0.161** | -0.00209 | ||
| (0.0688) | (0.0579) | |||
| DL | -1.004* | 0.740 | -0.877* | 0.710 |
| (0.482) | (1.090) | (0.412) | (0.959) | |
| IS | 0.0962 | 0.174 | ||
| (0.114) | (0.183) | |||
| ln_per_capita_gdp | -0.0594 | 1.128*** | -0.0148 | 1.012*** |
| (0.201) | (0.264) | (0.231) | (0.335) | |
| _cons | 5.524** | -4.702* | 4.385* | -3.874 |
| (1.800) | (2.522) | (2.023) | (3.162) | |
| N | 100 | 200 | 100 | 200 |
| R2 | 0.716 | 0.670 | 0.721 | 0.603 |
| adj. R2 | 0.701 | 0.662 | 0.710 | 0.595 |
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | |
| East | Central/Western | East | Central/Western | |
| ln_logistics_gdp | ln_logistics_gdp | ln_logistics_gdp | ln_logistics_gdp | |
| ln_ecom | 0.206** | -0.0665 | 0.202** | -0.0453 |
| (0.0752) | (0.0730) | (0.0722) | (0.0790) | |
| W_ln_ecom | 0.154** | -0.00811 | 0.219*** | -0.0213 |
| (0.0656) | (0.0623) | (0.0555) | (0.0903) | |
| IS | 0.137 | 0.0774 | 0.145 | 0.272* |
| (0.0972) | (0.157) | (0.105) | (0.155) | |
| ln_per_capita_gdp | -0.0642 | 1.031*** | -0.168 | 1.101** |
| (0.201) | (0.346) | (0.220) | (0.397) | |
| DL | -0.980** | 0.323 | -1.045*** | -0.774 |
| (0.332) | (1.225) | (0.274) | (1.366) | |
| classified highways | -0.000722 | -0.00197** | ||
| (0.00114) | (0.000868) | |||
| _cons | 4.972** | -4.040 | 5.548** | -4.918 |
| (1.681) | (3.273) | (1.886) | (3.620) | |
| N | 100 | 200 | 90 | 170 |
| R2 | 0.737 | 0.608 | 0.754 | 0.642 |
| adj. R2 | 0.720 | 0.596 | 0.739 | 0.631 |
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | |
| East | Central/Western | East | Central/Western | |
| ln_logistics_gdp | ln_logistics_gdp | ln_logistics_gdp | ln_logistics_gdp | |
| ln_ecom | 0.0989 | -0.0749 | 0.140 | 0.0921 |
| (0.0614) | (0.0970) | (0.116) | (0.0625) | |
| 2013.year#c.ln_ecom | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| (.) | (.) | (.) | (.) | |
| 2014.year#c.ln_ecom | -0.0200 | -0.0520 | -0.0500 | -0.0746 |
| (0.0196) | (0.0367) | (0.0667) | (0.0599) | |
| 2015.year#c.ln_ecom | -0.0172 | -0.112* | -0.0493 | -0.149** |
| (0.0270) | (0.0629) | (0.107) | (0.0602) | |
| 2016.year#c.ln_ecom | -0.0298 | -0.0812 | -0.0733 | -0.103 |
| (0.0262) | (0.0533) | (0.151) | (0.0807) | |
| 2017.year#c.ln_ecom | -0.0255 | -0.0464 | -0.0212 | -0.0696 |
| (0.0274) | (0.0504) | (0.137) | (0.0694) | |
| 2018.year#c.ln_ecom | -0.0322 | 0.00675 | 0.0259 | -0.0648 |
| (0.0317) | (0.0779) | (0.121) | (0.0954) | |
| 2019.year#c.ln_ecom | -0.0623 | -0.0228 | 0.0240 | -0.0768 |
| (0.0428) | (0.0851) | (0.128) | (0.0987) | |
| 2020.year#c.ln_ecom | -0.0721 | 0.0160 | -0.0462 | -0.0857 |
| (0.0433) | (0.0700) | (0.119) | (0.0708) | |
| 2021.year#c.ln_ecom | -0.0721 | -0.000881 | 0.0589 | -0.123 |
| (0.0422) | (0.0910) | (0.111) | (0.0906) | |
| 2022.year#c.ln_ecom | -0.0812 | -0.0344 | -0.00914 | -0.148 |
| (0.0472) | (0.115) | (0.0807) | (0.126) | |
| IS | 0.0507 | -0.119 | 0.0940 | 0.0403 |
| (0.112) | (0.242) | (0.119) | (0.251) | |
| DL | -0.527 | -3.199 | -1.185*** | 4.672 |
| (0.815) | (3.432) | (0.287) | (3.544) | |
| ln_per_capita_gdp | 0.615 | 1.084* | -0.307 | 1.153** |
| (0.382) | (0.534) | (0.255) | (0.365) | |
| _cons | -0.559 | -4.174 | 9.585*** | -7.045 |
| (4.281) | (5.290) | (2.685) | (3.825) | |
| N | 150 | 150 | 80 | 80 |
| R2 | 0.701 | 0.566 | 0.843 | 0.668 |
| adj. R2 | 0.649 | 0.491 | 0.783 | 0.540 |
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