Submitted:
29 October 2025
Posted:
30 October 2025
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Abstract
Keywords:
1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
- Vector Subcriterion: A transport vector currently exists that could move the species into the Great Lakes. The species is likely to tolerate/survive transport (including in resting stages) in the identified vector. The species has a probability of being introduced multiple times or in large numbers. And…
- Reproduction and Overwintering Subcriterion: Based on known tolerances or climate matching, the species is likely to be able to successfully reproduce and overwinter in the Great Lakes. And…
- Impact Subcriterion: The species has been known to impact other systems which it has invaded or is assessed as likely to impact the Great Lakes system. OR
- The species has been officially listed as a potential invasive species of concern by federal, state or provincial authorities with jurisdiction in the Great Lakes basin.
| Parameter | Scenario | Superior | Michigan | Huron | Erie | Ontario | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maximum Average Water Temperature | 2025 | 15.1 | 19.7 | 19.7 | 23.3 | 21.6 | [38] |
| 2050 | 18.6 | 21.8 | 21.8 | 24.8 | 24.0 | [38] | |
| Maximum Extreme Water Temperature | 2025 | 18.1 | 22.7 | 22.7 | 23.3 | 24.6 | [38] |
| 2050 | 21.6 | 24.8 | 24.8 | 27.8 | 27.0 | [38,39,40,41] | |
| Days above 10͒C Water Temperature | 2025 | 85 | 134 | 134 | 184 | 149 | [38] |
| 2050 | 131 | 168 | 168 | 217 | 189 | [38] | |
| Ice Cover (Ice Days) | 2025 | 189 | 182 | 182 | 168 | 175 | [43] |
| 2050 | 159 | 165 | 157 | 148 | 161 | [39,43,44] | |
| Minimum Average Air Temperature | 2025 | -16.2 | -8.4 | -8.4 | -5.8 | -9.7 | [45] |
| 2050 | -12.2 | -4.9 | -4.9 | -2.3 | -6.2 | [45,46] | |
| Max Average Air Temperature | 2025 | 22.6 | 27.2 | 27.2 | 26.4 | 25.2 | [45] |
| 2050 | 25.9 | 30.5 | 30.5 | 29.7 | 28.5 | [45,46] | |
| Days above 32.2͒C Air Temperature |
2025 | 2.15 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 7.5 | 3.4 | [45] |
| 2050 | 12-32 | 18-58 | 28-48 | 28-58 | 23-43 | [47] | |
| Frost-free Season (days) | 2025 | 112-161 | 133-192 | 112-192 | 143-212 | 122-192 | [49] |
| 2050 | 132-181 | 153-212 | 132-212 | 163-232 | 153-212 | [47,50] |
| Parameter | Yes | Probably | Possibly | Unlikely | No |
| Temperature Maximum | Species' water temperature range falls fully within predicted extreme maximum water temperatures. | Species' water temperature range is not known in full, but mostly falls within predicted average high water temperatures, or the species is known to inhabit colder water below the summer thermocline. | Insufficient data, but range indicates a possibility of survival in expected high average water temperatures. | Data is limited, but suggests a low tolerance for expected water temperature maximums; species may engage in adaptive behaviours to avoid high-temperature regions. |
None of the lakes are expected to have cool enough surface temperatures for this species' survival, and they are unlikely to inhabit colder water below the summer thermocline. |
| Optimal Temperature | Species' optimal temperature range or temperature required for reproduction falls within -6C or +2C of expected maximum average temperatures. | Conflicting information exists on species' optimal temperature range, but conditions described by at least one set of data are available. | A lake meets one of the previous qualifications under the "Yes" condition, but not verifiably both. | No lake is likely to consistently meet the species' optimal temperature conditions, but they may be temporarily present, or exist in small and specific areas of a lake. | None of the lakes are reasonably expected to meet the species' optimal temperature conditions. |
| Winter Conditions | The species is known to overwinter in equivalent to or harsher conditions than expected winter conditions. | The species adapts behaviorally to winter conditions and/or is known to overwinter under ice cover conditions that are not as extreme as those expected in the lakes. | Data may be limited, but doesn't contraindicate an ability to overwinter, and/or specific habitat conditions are preferred for successful overwintering. | Data is limited, but suggests a low tolerance for winter conditions. | Data indicates species will not be able to tolerate expected winter conditions. |
| Air Temperature Extremes* | The species' existing range and/or recorded tolerances fully include the expected climatic conditions. | The species' recorded tolerances mostly include the expected climatic conditions such that local variation is likely to provide appropriate habitat. | Data may be limited, but doesn't contraindicate the potential of climatically-appropriate available habitat. |
Data suggests an overall inability to tolerate expected climate conditions in any lake, but species may find habitat in a few specific locations due to variability. | The species is definitively unable to tolerate expected extreme air temperature conditions in the region of any lake. |
| Optimal Climate* | The species' optimal air temperature range, thermal conditions required for growth/reproduction, or necessary frost-free season is consistently present within the area/shoreline. | The species' optimal climate conditions are likely to be present within the region | The species' optimal climate conditions have the potential to be present, but are not expected to be consistently present over multiple years. | No lake region is likely to consistently meet the species' optimal climate conditions, but they may be temporarily present in some years, or exist variably in small pockets of the region. | No lake region is expected to meet the species' optimal climate conditions. |
- Increased Risk—Based on an increase in overlap over time between lake conditions and species temperature parameters, temperature effects expected as a result of 2050 climate change will make the Great Lakes more hospitable to this species than previously.
- Neutral—The species is equally as likely to establish in 2050 climate conditions as it is currently/historically.
- Decreased Risk—The effects of 2050 climate change will decrease the amount of viable thermal habitat for this species.
- Insufficient information—Data is insufficient to make a judgment.
- High—An individual lake was identified as consistently containing viable thermal habitat across parameters for a species.
- Medium—The individual lake was identified as only partially fulfilling a species' thermal habitat requirements in at least one parameter, or doing so inconsistently.
- Low—The individual lake fell entirely outside at least one thermal parameter for a species.
3. Results
3.1. Impact of Lake Warming to the Establishment Risk for Watchlist Species
3.2. Geographic Differences in Risk

4. Discussion
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgements
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
| MDPI | Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute |
| DOAJ | Directory of open access journals |
| GLANSIS | Great Lakes Aquatic Nonindigenous Species Information System |
| NOAA | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration |
| GLERL | Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory |
| USGS | United States Geological Survey |
| USDA | United States Department of Agriculture |
| GLAHF | Great Lakes Aquatic Habitat Framework |
| GLISA | Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments Center |
| NAD | North American Datum |
| NGS | National Geodetic Survey |
| WGS | World Geodetic System |
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| Taxonomic Group | Watchlist Species | Increased Risk | Neutral | Decreased Risk | Insufficient Information |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Algae | Chaetoceros muelleri | x | |||
| (n=9) | Hymenomonas roseola | x | |||
| Pleurosira laevis | x | ||||
| Prymnesium parvum | x | ||||
| Sphacelaria fluviatilis | x | ||||
| Sphacelaria lacustris | x | ||||
| Thalassiosira bramaputrae | x | ||||
| Ulva intestinalis | x | ||||
| Ulva prolifera | x | ||||
| Plants | Alternanthera philoxeroides | x | |||
| (n=18) | Arundo donax | x | |||
| Crassula helmsii | x | ||||
| Egeria densa | x | ||||
| Egeria najas | x | ||||
| Eichhornia crassipes | x | ||||
| Hottonia palustris | x | ||||
| Hygrophila polysperma | x | ||||
| Impatiens balfourii | x | ||||
| Ludwigia grandiflora | x | ||||
| Lysimachia punctata | x | ||||
| Myriophyllum aquaticum | x | ||||
| Lagarosiphon major | x | ||||
| Nelumbo nucifera | x | ||||
| Oenanthe javanica | x | ||||
| Pistia stratiotes | x | ||||
| Sparganium erectum | x | ||||
| Typha laxmannii | x | ||||
| Herps | Kinosternon subrubrum | x | |||
| (n=5) | Pseudemys concinna | x | |||
| Macrochelys temminckii | x | ||||
| Trachemys scripta scripta | x | ||||
| Xenopus laevis | x | ||||
| Fishes | Alburnus alburnus | x | |||
| (n=25) | Alosa chrysochloris | x | |||
| Babka gymnotrachelus | x | ||||
| Carassius carassius | x | ||||
| Channa argus | x | ||||
| Clupeonella cultriventris | x | ||||
| Cyprinella lutrensis | x | ||||
| Cyprinella whipplei | x | ||||
| Hypophthalmichthys molitrix | x | ||||
| Hypophthalmichthys nobilis | x | ||||
| Ictalurus furcatus | x | ||||
| Knipowitschia caucasica | x | ||||
| Lepomis auritus | x | ||||
| Leuciscus idus | x | ||||
| Leuciscus leuciscus | x | ||||
| Mylopharyngodon piceus | x | ||||
| Neogobius fluviatilis | x | ||||
| Osmerus eperlanus | x | ||||
| Perca fluviatilis | x | ||||
| Percottus glenii | x | ||||
| Phoxinus phoxinus | x | ||||
| Rutilus rutilius | x | ||||
| Sander lucioperca | x | ||||
| Syngnathus abaster | x | ||||
| Tinca tinca | x | ||||
| Crustaceans | Apocorophium lacustre | x | |||
| (n=28) | Astacus astacus | x | |||
| Calanipeda aquaedulcis | x | ||||
| Chelicorophium curvispinum | x | ||||
| Cherax destructor | x | ||||
| Cornigerius maeoticus | x | ||||
| Cyclops kolensis | x | ||||
| Daphnia cristata | x | ||||
| Dikerogammarus haemobaphes | x | ||||
| Dikerogammarus villosus | x | ||||
| Echinogammarus warpachowskyi | x | ||||
| Faxonius limosus | x | ||||
| Heterocope appendiculata | x | ||||
| Heterocope caspia | x | ||||
| Limnomysis benedeni | x | ||||
| Obesogammarus crassus | x | ||||
| Obesogammarus obesus | x | ||||
| Pacifastacus leniusculus | x | ||||
| Paraleptastacus spinicaudus | x | ||||
| Paraleptastacus wilsoni | x | ||||
| Paramysis intermedia | x | ||||
| Paramysis lacustris | x | ||||
| Pontogammarus robustoides | x | ||||
| Procambarus virginalis | x | ||||
| Pseudorasbora parva | x | ||||
| Rhithropanopaeus harrisii | x | ||||
| Silurus glanis | x | ||||
| Sinelobus stanfordi | x | ||||
| Other - Annelid (n=1) | Hypania invalida | x | |||
| Other - Bryozoan (n=1) | Fredericella sultana | x | |||
| Other - Mollusks | Hypanis colorata | x | |||
| (n=3) | Limnoperna fortunei | x | |||
| Lithoglyphus naticoides | x | ||||
| Other - Platyhelminthes (n=1) |
Leyogonimus polyoon | x | |||
| Other - Rotifers | Brachionus leydigii | x | |||
| (n=3) | Filinia cornuta | x | |||
| Filinia passa | x |
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