Submitted:
14 September 2025
Posted:
16 September 2025
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Abstract
The study examined whether regional differences in physical education (PE) allocation influence adolescent health in Romania. Using data from all 42 counties, we compared weekly PE minutes with two outcomes: prevalence of obesity and participation in daily moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA). Counties reported an average of 92.5 minutes of PE per week, with a wide range from 60 to 150 minutes. Adolescent obesity prevalence varied from 9.0% to 24.5%, while MVPA rates ranged from 34.0% to 68.2%. Correlation analysis revealed that higher PE time was moderately associated with lower obesity (r = –0.38, p = .015) and higher MVPA (r = 0.44, p = .006). Multivariate regression confirmed that every additional 10 minutes of weekly PE corresponded to a 0.7 percentage point decrease in obesity prevalence and a 0.9 percentage point increase in MVPA, independent of household income and urbanization. Counties with the lowest PE allocation consistently showed the worst health indicators, highlighting regional inequities.These findings demonstrate that PE policy functions as a significant predictor of adolescent health at population level. Establishing a nationwide minimum of 150 minutes per week, coupled with resource investments in disadvantaged regions, could reduce obesity, promote active lifestyles, and close rural–urban gaps. Physical education should be recognized not only as a curricular requirement but also as a strategic public health intervention with measurable benefits for national well-being.
Keywords:
1. Introduction
- H1. Counties with higher weekly PE minutes have lower adolescent obesity prevalence.
- H2. Counties with higher weekly PE minutes have higher adolescent participation in daily MVPA.
- H3. The associations between PE minutes and health outcomes (obesity, MVPA) remain statistically significant after controlling for household income and urbanization.
- H4. Regional disparities in PE allocation contribute to health inequalities, with rural counties more disadvantaged than urban ones.
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Design
2.2. Data Sources and Variables
- Physical Education Policy Measure: Mandated weekly PE minutes were extracted from educational policy records compiled in international monitoring databases. Data were verified at county level to reflect administrative implementation of national requirements. This variable served as the primary independent predictor.
- Obesity Prevalence: The percentage of adolescents aged 11–15 classified as obese was obtained from standardized public health surveillance systems using body mass index (BMI) for age z-scores. This indicator represented the primary health outcome.
- Moderate-to-Vigorous Physical Activity (MVPA): The proportion of adolescents reporting at least 60 minutes of MVPA per day was derived from nationally harmonized school health surveys. This outcome captured behavioral patterns of daily activity.
- Socioeconomic Covariates: Two county-level covariates were included to adjust for potential confounding. Average disposable household income per capita (expressed in euros) was obtained from national statistics and log-transformed to normalize distribution. The proportion of the county population residing in urban areas was used to capture the effect of urbanization.
2.3. Data Management
2.4. Statistical Analysis
- Descriptive Statistics: Means, standard deviations, minima, maxima, and interquartile ranges were calculated for all study variables. Distributions were visualized using histograms, boxplots, and county-level maps.
- Correlation Analysis: Pearson correlation coefficients with 95% confidence intervals were computed to evaluate bivariate associations between PE minutes and the two health outcomes (obesity prevalence and MVPA rates).
- Regression Modeling: Two separate multivariate linear regression models were estimated.
- o Model A predicted adolescent obesity prevalence.
- o Model B predicted MVPA rates.
- Model Diagnostics: To ensure robustness, residuals were assessed for normality using QQ-plots and Shapiro–Wilk tests, while homoscedasticity was tested with Breusch–Pagan procedures. Variance inflation factors (VIFs) were computed to detect multicollinearity, with a cut-off of VIF < 5. Influential observations were examined through Cook’s distance plots.
- Sensitivity Analyses: To test stability, additional specifications were estimated, including robust regression models and log-transformed dependent variables. Results were compared to assess consistency across methods.
2.5. Ethical Considerations
3. Results
3.1. Descriptive Statistics and Exploratory Visualizations
3.2. Correlation Analysis
3.3. Multivariate Regression Results
3.4. Model Diagnostics and Robustness Checks
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
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| Variable | Definition | Measurement/Unit | Role in analysis | Mean (SD) | Min–Max | IQR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Physical Education minutes | Number of minutes of PE mandated weekly at county level | Minutes/week (continuous) |
Main independent predictor | 92.5 (15.3) | 60–150 | 82–105 |
| Adolescent obesity prevalence | Adolescents aged 11–15 classified as obese (BMI-for-age z ≥ 2 SD) | Percentage (%) |
Dependent variable (Model A) |
16.2 (4.1) | 9.0–24.5 | 13.5–18.8 |
| MVPA rate | Adolescents achieving ≥60 min/day of MVPA | Percentage (%) |
Dependent variable (Model B) |
51.8 (8.6) | 34.0–68.2 | 47.0–59.5 |
| Household income | Disposable income per capita |
Euro (log-transformed) |
Covariate | 10.5 (0.2) | 10.1–10.9 | 10.3–10.7 |
| Urbanization | Share of county population in urban areas |
Percentage (%) |
Covariate | 53.7 (10.4) | 30.5–97.1 | 45.0–60.2 |
| Step | Description | Statistical procedures | Outputs | Model fit / Diagnostics | Robustness checks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Descriptive analysis | Distribution and variability of variables | Means, SD, min, max, IQR | Summary statistics, figures | All variables normally distributed | Confirmed via skewness/kurtosis tests |
| Correlation analysis | Bivariate associations between PE and outcomes | Pearson r with 95% CI | r = –0.38 (obesity), r = 0.44 (MVPA) |
p-values < 0.05 | Correlations stable across sub-samples |
| Regression modeling | Independent effects of PE on outcomes | Multivariate linear regression | β = –0.07 (obesity), β = 0.09 (MVPA) |
Adj. R² = 0.27 (Model A), 0.31 (Model B) | Results consistent in robust regressions |
| Diagnostics | Model assumption checks | QQ-plots, Shapiro–Wilk, Breusch–Pagan, VIF, Cook’s D | Residuals normal, homoscedastic, no multicollinearity (VIF < 2) |
No influential outliers (Cook’s D < 0.10) | – |
| Sensitivity analyses | Alternative specifications | Robust regression, log-transformed DV |
Comparable coefficients | Stability confirmed | – |
| Variable | Unit/Scale | Mean (SD) | Median | Min–Max | IQR | 95% CI (Mean) | Skewness | Kurtosis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PE minutes/week | Minutes | 92.5 (15.3) | 91 | 60–150 | 82–105 | 87.7–97.3 | 0.48 | –0.31 |
| Adolescent obesity prevalence | % of adolescents | 16.2 (4.1) | 16 | 9.0–24.5 | 13.5–18.8 | 15.0–17.4 | 0.22 | –0.45 |
| MVPA participation | % of adolescents | 51.8 (8.6) | 52 | 34.0–68.2 | 47.0–59.5 | 49.1–54.5 | –0.27 | –0.12 |
| Household income | Log EUR | 10.5 (0.2) | 10.5 | 10.1–10.9 | 10.3–10.7 | 10.4–10.6 | –0.10 | –0.18 |
| Urbanization | % of population | 53.7 (10.4) | 53 | 30.5–97.1 | 45.0–60.2 | 50.5–56.9 | 0.62 | 0.41 |
| Predictor | Model A: Obesity prevalence | Model B: MVPA participation | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β (Std.) | SE | p-value | β (Std.) | SE | p-value | |
| Physical Education minutes (per 10 min) | –0.07 | 0.02 | 0.004 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.002 |
| Household income (log, EUR) | –0.12 | 0.05 | 0.020 | 0.15 | 0.04 | 0.001 |
|
Urbanization (%) |
–0.03 | 0.01 | 0.080 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.050 |
| Model fit | Adj. R² = 0.27 | F(3,38) = 6.12 | p < 0.001 | Adj. R² = 0.31 | F(3,38) = 7.45 | p < 0.001 |
| Check | Model A | Model B | Threshold | Interpretation | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Shapiro–Wilk (normality) |
W = 0.97, p = 0.21 |
W = 0.96, p = 0.18 |
p > 0.05 | Residuals approximately normal | Assumption met |
| Breusch–Pagan (homoscedasticity) | χ² = 3.05, p = 0.27 |
χ² = 2.89, p = 0.33 |
p > 0.05 | No heteroscedasticity detected | Assumption met |
|
Variance Inflation Factor (max) |
1.7 | 1.9 | < 5 | No multicollinearity detected | Assumption met |
|
Cook’s Distance (max) |
0.07 | 0.06 | < 0.10 | No influential outliers | Assumption met |
|
Robust regression (β PE minutes) |
–0.07 (p = 0.005) |
0.09 (p = 0.003) |
p < 0.05 | Effects stable | Consistent effect |
|
Alternative DV (log-transformed) |
Similar β, same sign |
Similar β, same sign |
– | Results comparable | Robustness confirmed |
| Adjusted R² | 0.27 | 0.31 | – | Moderate explanatory power | Acceptable |
|
F-statistic (overall fit) |
F(3,38) = 6.12, p < 0.001 |
F(3,38) = 7.45, p < 0.001 |
p < 0.05 | Models statistically significant | Significant fit |
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