Submitted:
09 October 2024
Posted:
09 October 2024
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Abstract
Keywords:
1. Introduction
2. Literature Review
2.1. Traditional Methods for Financial Risk Assessment
2.2. The Potential Combination of Artificial Intelligence and Fintech
2.3. Reinforcement Learning in the Field of Finance
2.4. Integration of AI in Financial Risk Assessment
2.5. Future Directions and Innovations in Financial Risk Management
3. Methodology
3.1. Dataset
| date | open | high | low | close | adjcp | volume | tic | day | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2008/1/2 | 7.116786 | 7.152143 | 6.876786 | 6.958571 | 5.94145 | 1079178800 | AAPL | 2 |
| 1 | 2008/1/2 | 46.599998 | 47.040001 | 46.259998 | 46.599998 | 35.172192 | 7934400 | AMGN | 2 |
| 2 | 2008/1/2 | 52.09 | 52.32 | 50.790001 | 51.040001 | 40.326855 | 8053700 | AXP | 2 |
| 3 | 2008/1/2 | 87.57 | 87.839996 | 86 | 86.620003 | 63.481602 | 4303000 | BA | 2 |
| 4 | 2008/1/2 | 72.559998 | 72.669998 | 70.050003 | 70.629997 | 46.850491 | 6337800 | CAT | 2 |
3.2. Preprocess Data
- Add technical indicators. In practical trading, various information needs to be considered, such as historical stock prices, current holding shares, technical indicators, etc. This article demonstrates two trend-following technical indicators: MACD and RSI.
- Add turbulence index. Risk aversion reflects whether an investor will choose to preserve the capital. It also influences one's trading strategy when facing different market volatility levels. To control the risk in a worst-case scenario, such as the financial crisis of 2007–2008, FinRL employs the financial turbulence index that measures extreme asset price fluctuation.
| Date | Ticker | Close | MACD | RSI 30 | Covariance Matrix Summary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008/12/31 | AAPL | 3.048 | -0.097 | 42.25 | Mean Cov: 0.0013, Std Dev: 0.0004 |
| 2008/12/31 | AMGN | 57.75 | 0.216 | 51.06 | Mean Cov: 0.0013, Std Dev: 0.0004 |
| 2008/12/31 | AXP | 18.55 | -1.192 | 42.52 | Mean Cov: 0.0013, Std Dev: 0.0004 |
| 2008/12/31 | BA | 42.67 | -0.391 | 47.29 | Mean Cov: 0.0013, Std Dev: 0.0004 |
| 2008/12/31 | CAT | 44.67 | 0.98 | 51.07 | Mean Cov: 0.0013, Std Dev: 0.0004 |
3.3. Design Environment for Stock Trading
3.4. Implementation of DRL Algorithms
| date | daily_return | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2020/7/1 | 0 |
| 1 | 2020/7/2 | 0.005197 |
| 2 | 2020/7/6 | 0.014996 |
| 3 | 2020/7/7 | -0.013876 |
| 4 | 2020/7/8 | 0.005758 |
4. Financial Asset Forecast Backtest Trading Strategy
4.1. BackTestStats
4.2. BackTestPlot
| Worst drawdown periods | Net drawdown in % | Peak date | Valley date | Recovery date | Duration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.87 | 2020/9/2 | 2020/10/28 | 2020/11/9 | 49 |
| 1 | 5.17 | 2021/8/16 | 2021/9/30 | NaT | NaN |
| 2 | 4.06 | 2021/5/10 | 2021/6/18 | 2021/7/2 | 40 |
| 3 | 3.52 | 2021/2/24 | 2021/3/4 | 2021/3/10 | 11 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2021/1/20 | 2021/1/29 | 2021/2/5 | 13 |





4.3. Experimental Conclusion

5. Conclusions
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