Demand Forecasting for Emergency Supplies through Improved Dynamics Model: A reflection on the Post Epidemic Era

From ancient times to the present, mankind has struggled with infectious diseases that pose a serious threat to people's lives, COVID-19 pandemic has given a huge impact to the human society, which has triggered a lot of thinking. In the future, humans may encounter various unexpected disasters or awful events, therefore, should learn from COVID-19 pandemic incident that need to pay special attention to the emergency supply of manpower and materials, whether a major disaster or not. That is emergency medical management is very important in the event of a sudden outbreak. What’s more, the preparation and scheduling of emergency medical supplies well safeguards people’s lives, health, and safety. However, owing to the sudden onset of an epidemic and given the population trends, the scale of infections and the demand for supplies in the epidemic area are uncertain. The main influencing factors and mechanisms of emergency material demand under the development trend of emergencies can be studied, and materials can be allocated efficiently and effectively, so as to minimize damage. In this study, it improves upon the dynamics model of infectious diseases firstly, by establishing a demand forecasting model for a certain area, taking the Hubei province as an example. Furthermore, this dynamics model is used to predict demand for emergency supplies, such as masks, respirators, and food in the area where the disaster will occur. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness and reliability of this prediction model, which supports for the development of emergency material management systems, ulterior, this study provides a framework for the distribution of emergency supplies and a guideline for relief efforts.