4. Discussion
Field surveys in cassava production regions are critical to establish the occurrence of pests and diseases, and to determine the extent of adoption of new improved cassava varieties with resistance or tolerance to these biotic stressors. This study presents findings on cassava varieties, whitefly
B. tabaci, cassava virus diseases and cassava green mite occurrence in six cassava growing counties in western Kenya. Cassava in western Kenya is mostly cultivated on small scale with average field area of ~0.08 hectares for a single predominant variety in surveyed fields. The region has diverse cassava varieties, and most farmers (58%) had two varieties while another 17% had three varieties. This indicates that the 29 varieties encountered in this study could just be a portion of what exists in farmer fields. Other studies have reported varieties that were not recorded in this study. For example, of the 18 varieties that were recorded in Migori [
30], only three (MH95/0183, Migyera, Sudhe) were encountered in the current study. A high proportion (60%) of fields surveyed in the two years of the current study had improved varieties, and MM96/4271 was recorded across all six counties and in 36% of fields surveyed. MM96/4271 (NASE 14) is resistant to CMD, and tolerant to CBSD (Masinde et al. 2018, Ogwok et al 2015). It also has high dry matter content, low cyanide content and good culinary qualities factors that could have favoured its widespread adoption in western Kenya [
58]. Another commonly cultivated variety in the surveyed area was Migyera (=TMS30572 = NASE3), which is also considered tolerant to CMD and CBSD [
58,
59,
60]. Migyera was found to have only CBSV infection while susceptible varieties had a mixture of both CBSV and UCBSV (Ogwok et al. 2015). Both MM96/4271 and Migyera were recommended to farmers in Uganda as CBSD tolerant because of low virus incidence [
59,
61]. In addition, MM96/4271 was selected as the most preferred variety in a farmer participatory trial in West Nile, Uganda where no CMD and CBSD incidence was recorded compared to 82% and 22.5% respectively in local landraces. It was also reported to have moderate CGM damage compared to local landraces [
62]. The high proportion of farmer fields with improved varieties in western Kenya indicates farmers’ willingness to adopt these varieties with time as long they have preferred attributes for example for the period of 1998 – 2001 the proportion of farmer fields with CMD resistance varieties increased from 17 to 35% in Uganda [
10]. Improved CMD-resistant varieties were introduced into Kenya in the 1990s as part of a region-wide programme to tackle the spreading pandemic of severe CMD [
10,
63,
64]. Previous studies reported high preference for local landraces by farmers in Migori in Kenya, and improved varieties were only being cultivated on 17.9% of the surveyed fields [
30]. In Rwanda a survey carried out in 2007 reported local landraces accounted for 83% of the varieties in farmer fields [
65]. Generally local landraces are susceptible to CMD, CBSD and CGM compared to improved varieties [
10,
65,
66], although they often have specific quality traits which are preferred by farmers. In most cases, as observed in this study, farmers grow more than one variety, and in many cases, these are mixtures of both improved and local and at different growth stages. These adjacent fields are usually the source of virus inoculum for infection where clean cassava cuttings are planted [
65,
67]
The high prevalence of CMD (64%) is an indication that the disease continues to be widespread in western Kenya, albeit at lower levels than in recent history. The average incidence was variable depending on season of survey, county, and cassava variety. The average incidence across counties and varieties was higher in 2022 (26.4%) compared 2023 (10.1%). In 2022 all counties had incidences above 10% except Bungoma which had 8%. However, in 2023, four counties had incidence of below 10%, with only Homa Bay and Siaya having higher incidences of 20% and 17% respectively. Combined data for both years showed that Bungoma had the lowest CMD incidence of 5% followed by Migori at 15% while the other four counties recorded 16 – 27%. The CMD incidence differences were not statistically significant between counties (P > 0.05). The mean CMD incidence of 26.4% in 2022 is comparable to 33% previously reported in Migori [
30], 32% in the Comoros Islands [
26], 33% in Rwanda [
65], and 27% in Tanzania [
68]. However, this was lower than the 52% reported in Zambia [
69] and 84% reported in Benin [
70]. More significantly, however, the current levels of CMD incidence in western Kenya are much lower than they were at the time of the severe CMD pandemic spread in the late 1990s, where CMD incidence was 63% [
10,
63]. This appears to indicate a long-term impact of the introduction of CMD-resistant varieties. This observation is supported by the current study, as CMD incidence was lower in improved (5.9%) compared to local (35.9%). Furthermore, the most widely grown variety at the present time in western Kenya is MM96/4271, which had one of the lowest incidences of all (3.5%). The low incidence of CMD in improved compared to local landraces has been reported in several studies, for example in Migori incidence in improved was 18% compared to 47% in local varieties [
30], whilst in Uganda there are reports of the complete absence of CMD in improved compared with 82% incidence in local varieties [
62].
CBSD, by contrast, had a low prevalence (16%) in western Kenya. Incidences of 6.4% in 2022 and 4.1% in 2023 were similarly low. The combined average incidence of 5.3% is very low compared to previous studies for example: 42% in Migori [
30], 23% in Uganda [
62], 42% in the Comoros Islands [
26], 21% in coastal Kenya [
5], 32% and 35% in Tanzania [
71,
72], and 12% in the Democratic Republic of Congo [
25]. The combined year incidence of CBSD was variable across counties 0 – 23% which could be attributed to factors such as cassava variety, prevailing climatic conditions, health status of planting material, infection status of cassava plants in neighbouring farms, or age of the crop. This variability is reported in other studies, for example in the coast region of Kenya the incidence was 11 – 28% across three counties [
5], Tanzania 0 – 98% [
71,
72], and Comoros Islands 30 – 49% [
26]. Incidence in local landraces was higher (9.7%) than for improved varieties (2.3%) though the predominant variety MM96/4271 had an average CBSD foliar incidence of 6.3% which was higher than other improved varieties. Lower incidence of CBSD in improved compared to local varieties has been reported elsewhere, for example in Migori 27% (improved) versus 57% (local) [
30], and in Uganda 23% verses 82% [
62].
Real time quantitative RT-PCR for CBSIs detected both CBSV and UCBV in samples collected in 2022. CBSV was the most commonly detected CBSI (82.9%) compared to 34.3% for UCBSV. These findings are comparable to previous studies that have reported a higher incidence of CBSV compared to UCBSV, for example 74% versus 34% in DRC [
25], 59% versus 54% in Kenya [
5]. However, this contrasts with a study in Tanzania where UCBSV (81%) was more frequent than CBSV (15%) for recycled planting material and 14% versus 2.6% for initially virus-free planting material [
73]. The CBSV and UCBSV coinfection rate of 16.7% in this study is slightly higher than in previous studies that recorded 5% (Shirima et al. 2019) and 8.4% [
5]. The occurrence in this study of some plants with CBSD symptoms testing negative, and asymptomatic plants testing positive to CBSIs has been reported in other studies and could be attributed to the cryptic nature of CBSIs or primer mismatches [
5,
26,
53]. Detection of CBSIs in asymptomatic plants is a common feature of the CBSD disease phenomenon, as symptoms are often cryptic and sensitive to seasonal variation [
74]. The detection rate for CBSIs in asymptomatic plants of 16% demonstrates that true levels of infection are significantly greater than those measured by using visual assessment, although this would not represent a large increase in the incidence level determined from symptoms as it would still result in an overall true incidence of less than 20%. These results suggest that although CBSD continues to be an important cassava production constraint in western Kenya, its status is moderate and relatively stable.
The number of adult whiteflies in 2023 was nine times higher compared to those in 2022 when four outlier fields with variety MM96/2480 were excluded from the averages, while nymphs were three times higher suggesting that conditions prevailing during the 2023 season were favourable for whitefly population build up. This was anticipated, as weather conditions are known to be more favourable for
B. tabaci whiteflies on cassava during the hottest time of the year in February and March. Bungoma, which had the fewest adult whiteflies in 2022 had the highest number in 2023 suggesting high variability of whitefly numbers depending on prevailing season which in turn could influence CMD and CBSD epidemics. The association between whitefly abundance and cassava virus spread is well documented [
75,
76], and the importance of seasonal effects on whitefly abundance and CBSD spread has been clearly documented for coastal Tanzania, where high whitefly abundance and rapid CBSD spread were associated with planting in the short rainy season, in contrast to much lower whitefly abundances and less CBSD spread for plantings made during the long rainy season [
73]. The average number of adult whiteflies (47) and nymphs (62) reported in this study excluding the four outlier fields in Homa Bay is very high compared to reports from other recent regional surveys, for example 0.9 adults and 5.2 nymphs in Rwanda (Night et al. 2011), 4.7 (2018) and 1.8 (2016) adult whiteflies in eastern DRC [
25], 0.1 to 15.9 adults in Benin [
70], 1.8 adults in Comoros Islands [
26], and 0.6 adults in Zambia [
69]. Abundances of whitefly adults on improved varieties were approximately double those of local varieties. Abundances of
B. tabaci on MM96/4271 were typical of this pattern. In addition, however, two fields in Homa Bay with the improved variety MM96/2480 had an unusually high number of whiteflies. Whitefly abundances were some of the highest recorded on cassava for two of the four fields where the variety was recorded (3,280 and 1,961), with a highest single plant count of 7,000, although the two other fields had much lower abundances of 89 and 10. Further research will be required to determine whether these extreme abundances are the result of ultra-suitability of the variety for cassava
B. tabaci, or the consequence of specific and unusual micro-environmental conditions.
Several other studies have reported higher number of whiteflies on improved compared to local landraces for example three times higher for both whiteflies and nymphs in Rwanda [
65], two times higher nymph means in Uganda [
66], and high numbers on improved varieties compared to local landraces [
77]. MM96/4271 was among varieties hosting higher mean numbers of whiteflies in a study that evaluated resistance among 23 varieties selected from East and Southern Africa [
78]. It was notable, however, that these differences in abundance did not translate into differences in incidence of virus disease, suggesting that improved varieties must have generally higher levels of virus resistance than their local equivalents.
The cassava
B. tabaci mitotypes that were detected included SSA1-SG1, SSA1-SG2, SSA1-SG1/SG2 and SSA2. These findings are consistent with previous studies for samples from western Kenya [
29,
38,
39]. The predominant mitotype was SSA1-SG1 with 64.4% in 2017 and 70% in 2022/2023 which is consistent with most previous studies in Eastern Africa [
29,
38,
39,
79,
80] except for South Sudan where SSA2 was the most frequently encountered cassava
B. tabaci mitotype [
81]. The occurrence of SSA2 and SSA1-SG2 appear to reciprocally reduce or increase depending on the time of sampling, in 2017 SSA2 accounted for 28.8% and SSA1-SG2 5.5% while in 2022/2023 their proportions reversed to 3% and 26.5% respectively. The fluctuating occurrence and even absence of SSA2 in samples collected from regions in Uganda and Kenya has been reported in previous studies (29,39,55,82,83]. A fourteen-year trend of SSA2 (1997 – 2010) reported high frequency during the period of 1997 – 1999, moderate occurrence 2000 – 2001 and very low frequency 2004 – 2010 [
29]. So far, no explanation has been suggested for this SSA2 trend. KASP SNP genotyping revealed SSA-ECA to be the most frequently occurring haplogroup accounting for 72% in 2017 and 93.6% in 2022/2023. This is reported to be the most widespread haplogroup across large parts of East and Central Africa [
38,
39,
40,
84]. SSA-ECA is dominant in areas severely affected by CMD and CBSD epidemics, and its persistent presence in high numbers in western Kenya is an indication that the region remains under continual threat of virus epidemics. KASP failed to clearly designate 6% of the samples in either of the known six haplogroups. This diagnostic tool was developed on a limited number of samples and this failure could be attributed to primer mismatches and provides an indication that there is a need for continuous optimization using diverse samples.
No obvious relationship was apparent between whitefly numbers and incidence of CMD and CBSD. In 2023 the whitefly numbers were nine times higher yet the incidence of CMD was 10.1% and CBSD 4.1% compared to 26.4% and 6.4% in 2022. Furthermore, the proportion of plants that were scored as whitefly infected was unchanged between the years (4.4%). The lack of relationship between high whitefly numbers and virus incidence could be attributed several factors. Firstly, there is a lag between adult whitefly population abundances and the expression of symptoms resulting from the virus transmission that they cause, since there is a latent period for symptom expression of approximately one month for both CMD and CBSD [
85,
86], and secondly, the improved varieties where whiteflies were particularly abundant are also resistant or tolerant to CMD and CBSD [
10]. The high incidence of CMD in 2022 compared to 2023 is attributed to a higher incidence of infected cuttings in 2022, which is an indication of a lack of clean planting material. In a survey carried out in coastal Kenya, it was found that 82.5% of the farmers recycled planting material from the previous crop, 67.5% got material from neighbours or sourced from other regions, 11% obtained planting material from research organisations, 5.3% bought from a market and only 2.5% sourced clean material every season [
5]. Even though virus incidence levels were not very high, the large number of fields with super-abundant whitefly populations (>100 adults/five top leaves) in 2023 (28%) compared to 2022 (5%) indicates that whiteflies pose a threat as a physical pest in seasons in which they occur in large numbers. Whitefly damage alone can cause up to 50% yield loss under severe infestation [
33]. In a study evaluating efficacy of cutting dipping in insecticides against whiteflies in cassava under high whitefly population and virus inoculum pressure, Flupyradifurone (Sivanto SL 200) reduced whitefly numbers by 41% for adults and 65% of nymphs, and CMD incidence was 34% lower than in the untreated control [
87]. Control of whiteflies using cutting dipping in insecticides contributed to a 49% root yield increase which demonstrated clearly the potential benefit of whitefly control [
87].
Cassava green mite was widespread across all counties with a prevalence of 95% and incidence in the range of 49.6 to 91.3%. These findings indicate that CGM which was previously under control, probably due to the combined action of predatory mites and rainfall, could be reemerging as a serious pest due to erratic rainfall patterns that have led to prolonged drought conditions in many cassava growing regions [
47]. Drought favours rapid establishment of CGM and could also reduce the efficiency of predatory mites in managing this pest [
42,
47]. Farmers in Rwanda ranked poor quality planting material and unpredictable rains/drought as the major challenges affecting cassava production [
88]. The response of varieties in the current study shows that all varieties are prone to CGM infestation as some that were found to have low incidence and severity in 2022 were found to have high incidence and severity in 2023 and vice versa. However, the most predominant variety MM96/4271 had a lower severity of 2.4 compared to the overall average of 2.7. Considering that fields sampled in this study were 3 to 6 months old, the severity of CGM damage is likely to have increased as plants matured further. An increased frequency of unpredictable weather conditions is expected to be a consequence of anthropogenic climate change. Although cassava has been shown to be the most adaptable of the major staple crops to the anticipated effects of climate change [
6], there will be changes in interactions with the major pests and diseases, and research will be required to determine the most appropriate and effective ways in which to respond to these changes. This will be particularly important for CGM, where control has depended on a delicate tri-trophic balance between the pest, exotic and indigenous natural enemies, as well as the cassava host plant.