Submitted:
19 August 2024
Posted:
20 August 2024
You are already at the latest version
Abstract
Keywords:
1. Introduction
2. Related Work
2.1. Topic Modeling for Public Health
2.2. Social Media for Disaster Relief
2.3. Graph Neural Networks
2.4. Large Language Models for Topic Naming
2.5. Combining GNNs and LLMs for Event Prediction
3. Methods
3.1. Study Design
4. Methodology
4.1. Data Pre-Processing and Feature Engineering
4.2. Emotion Prediction and Life Incident Extraction
4.2.1. Text Vectorization
4.2.2. LDA Topic Modeling Based Life Incident Extraction
Topics identification for optimal number:
Life incident extraction from the identified topics:
Automatic Group Topic Naming:
5. Results
5.1. Emotion Prediction Results
5.2. Tweets Summary by Emotions

| Positive | Neutral | Negative |
|---|---|---|
| good | update | hit |
| love | weather | storm |
| luck | report | threaten |
| great | latest | flood |
| stay | storm | resident |
| people | landfall | u |
| path | channel | evacuation |
| prayer | wind | photo |
| send | make | rain |
| everyone | information | wind |
| happy | coverage | emergency |
| im | watch | coastal |
| texan | pm | strengthen |
| go | video | year |
| affect | national | heavy |
| safe | hurricane | warning |
| wonderful | track | horrible |
| blessed | system | damage |
| joy | gov | destruction |
| support | cnn | disaster |
5.3. Emotions Distribution and Evolution
5.4. Life Incident Extraction Results
6. Analysis of Optimal k Selection for Sentiment Groups
Life Incidents Insight Analysis
6.1. Limitations
7. Conclusion
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
- Amadeo, K. Hurricane Harvey facts, damage and costs. The Balance 2018. [Google Scholar]
- Cooper, S.; Hutchings, P.; Butterworth, J.; Joseph, S.; Kebede, A.; Parker, A.; Terefe, B.; Van Koppen, B. Environmental associated emotional distress and the dangers of climate change for pastoralist mental health. Global Environmental Change 2019, 59, 101994. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Aihara, Y.; Shrestha, S.; Sharma, J. Household water insecurity, depression and quality of life among postnatal women living in urban Nepal. Journal of water and health 2016, 14, 317–324. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Stevenson, E.G.; Greene, L.E.; Maes, K.C.; Ambelu, A.; Tesfaye, Y.A.; Rheingans, R.; Hadley, C. Water insecurity in 3 dimensions: an anthropological perspective on water and women’s psychosocial distress in Ethiopia. Social science & medicine 2012, 75, 392–400. [Google Scholar]
- Ojala, M. Young people and global climate change: Emotions, coping, and engagement in everyday life. Geographies of global issues: Change and threat 2016, 8, 1–19. [Google Scholar]
- Friedrich, E.; Wüstenhagen, R. Leading organizations through the stages of grief: The development of negative emotions over environmental change. Business & society 2017, 56, 186–213. [Google Scholar]
- Hickman, C.; Marks, E.; Pihkala, P.; Clayton, S.; Lewandowski, R.E.; Mayall, E.E.; Wray, B.; Mellor, C.; van Susteren, L. Climate anxiety in children and young people and their beliefs about government responses to climate change: A global survey. The Lancet Planetary Health 2021, 5. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Kipf, T.; Welling, M. Semi-Supervised Classification with Graph Convolutional Networks. ArXiv 2016, abs/1609.02907. [Google Scholar]
- Zhuang, C.; Ma, Q. Dual Graph Convolutional Networks for Graph-Based Semi-Supervised Classification. Proceedings of the 2018 World Wide Web Conference 2018. [Google Scholar]
- Radford, A.; Wu, J.; Child, R.; Luan, D.; Amodei, D.; Sutskever, I. Language Models are Unsupervised Multitask Learners. 2019.
- Wei, J.; Bosma, M.; Zhao, V.; Guu, K.; Yu, A.W.; Lester, B.; Du, N.; Dai, A.M.; Le, Q.V. Finetuned Language Models Are Zero-Shot Learners. ArXiv 2021, abs/2109.01652. [Google Scholar]
- Brown, T.B.; Mann, B.; Ryder, N.; Subbiah, M.; Kaplan, J.; Dhariwal, P.; Neelakantan, A.; Shyam, P.; Sastry, G.; Askell, A.; et al. Language Models are Few-Shot Learners. ArXiv 2020, abs/2005.14165. [Google Scholar]
- Bui, T.; Hannah, A.; Madria, S.; Nabaweesi, R.; Levin, E.; Wilson, M.; Nguyen, L. Emotional Health and Climate-Change-Related Stressor Extraction from Social Media: A Case Study Using Hurricane Harvey. Mathematics 2023, 11. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Blei, D.M.; Lafferty, J.D. Topic models. Text mining: classification, clustering, and applications 2009, 10, 34. [Google Scholar]
- Grassia, M.G.; Marino, M.; Mazza, R.; Misuraca, M.; Stavolo, A. Topic modeling for analysing the Russian propaganda in the conflict with Ukraine. ASA 2022 2023, 245. [Google Scholar]
- Grootendorst, M. BERTopic, Topic Modeling with a class-base for TF-IDF procedure. Frontiers in Sociology 2022. [Google Scholar]
- Karas, B.; Qu, S.; Xu, Y.; Zhu, Q. Experiments with LDA and Top2Vec for embedded topic discovery on social media data—A case study of cystic fibrosis. Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence 2022, 5, 948313. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Man, I.; Georges, D.; de Carvalho, T.M.; Saraswati, L.R.; Bhandari, P.; Kataria, I.; Siddiqui, M.; Muwonge, R.; Lucas, E.; Berkhof, J.; et al. Evidence-based impact projections of single-dose human papillomavirus vaccination in India: a modelling study. The Lancet Oncology 2022, 23, 1419–1429. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Asmundson, G.J.; Taylor, S. Coronaphobia: Fear and the 2019-nCoV outbreak. Journal of anxiety disorders 2020, 70, 102196. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Manikonda, L. Analysis and Decision-Making with Social Media; Arizona State University, 2019.
- Kaplan, A.M. SocialMedia, Definition, and History. In Encyclopedia of Social Network Analysis and Mining; Alhajj, R., Rokne, J., Eds.; Springer New York: New York, NY, 2018; pp. 2662–2665. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Gao, H.; Barbier, G.; Goolsby, R. Harnessing the crowdsourcing power of social media for disaster relief. IEEE intelligent systems 2011, 26, 10–14. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Lindsay, B.R. Social Media and Disasters: Current Uses, Future Options, and Policy Considerations. Technical report, Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service, 2011.
- Du, H.; Nguyen, L.; Yang, Z.; Abu-Gellban, H.; Zhou, X.; Xing, W.; Cao, G.; Jin, F. Twitter vs news: Concern analysis of the 2018 california wildfire event. In Proceedings of the 2019 IEEE 43rd Annual Computer Software and Applications Conference (COMPSAC). IEEE; 2019; Vol. 2, pp. 207–212. [Google Scholar]
- Nguyen, L.H.; Hewett, R.; Namin, A.S.; Alvarez, N.; Bradatan, C.; Jin, F. Smart and connected water resource management via social media and community engagement. In Proceedings of the 2018 IEEE/ACM International Conference on Advances in Social Networks Analysis and Mining (ASONAM). IEEE; 2018; pp. 613–616. [Google Scholar]
- Yang, Z.; Nguyen, L.; Zhu, J.; Pan, Z.; Li, J.; Jin, F. Coordinating disaster emergency response with heuristic reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 2020 IEEE/ACM International Conference on Advances in Social Networks Analysis and Mining (ASONAM). IEEE; 2020; pp. 565–572. [Google Scholar]
- Nguyen, L.; Yang, Z.; Li, J.; Pan, Z.; Cao, G.; Jin, F. Forecasting people’s needs in hurricane events from social network. IEEE Transactions on Big Data 2019, 8, 229–240. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Lu, Y.; Hu, X.; Wang, F.; Kumar, S.; Liu, H.; Maciejewski, R. Visualizing social media sentiment in disaster scenarios. In Proceedings of the Proceedings of the 24th international conference on world wide web, 2015, pp. 1211–1215.
- Kryvasheyeu, Y.; Chen, H.; Obradovich, N.; Moro, E.; Van Hentenryck, P.; Fowler, J.; Cebrian, M. Rapid assessment of disaster damage using social media activity. Science advances 2016, 2, e1500779. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Hurricane Harvey Tweets. https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/dan195/hurricaneharvey, 2017 (Accessed Aug 06, 2023).
- Chen, T.H.; Thomas, S.W.; Hassan, A.E. A survey on the use of topic models when mining software repositories. Empirical Software Engineering 2016, 21, 1843–1919. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Hofmann, T. Probabilistic latent semantic indexing. In Proceedings of the Proceedings of the 22nd annual international ACM SIGIR conference on Research and development in information retrieval, 1999, pp. 50–57.
- Blei, D.M.; Ng, A.Y.; Jordan, M.I. Latent dirichlet allocation. Journal of machine Learning research 2003, 3, 993–1022. [Google Scholar]
- Mimno, D.; Wallach, H.M.; Talley, E.; Leenders, M.; McCallum, A. Optimizing Semantic Coherence in Topic Models. In Proceedings of the Proceedings of the Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing; Association for Computational Linguistics: USA, 2011; EMNLP ’11, p. 262–272.
- Thorndike, R. Who belongs in the family? Psychometrika 1953, 18, 267–276. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Pedregosa, F.; Varoquaux, G.; Gramfort, A.; Michel, V.; Thirion, B.; Grisel, O.; Blondel, M.; Prettenhofer, P.; Weiss, R.; Dubourg, V.; et al. Scikit-learn: Machine Learning in Python. Journal of Machine Learning Research 2011, 12, 2825–2830. [Google Scholar]




| Predicted Event Name | Representative Tweets and Terms |
|---|---|
| Troll and Non-Real Person | shelter, emergency, evacuee, free, offer, flood, help, continue, rescue, order; help, dog, relief, food, donate, cros, bag, support, away, affect; update, latest, report, president, disaster, city, head, wake, great, state; jeffpiotrowski, wind, periscope, gust, day, damag, crazy, got, last, cat; power, track, follow, story, top, without, bear, potential, map, update; disaster, gulf, open, border, first, patrol, brace, major, face, natural; rain, watch, tx, eye, rockport, water, bring, wind, barrel, wall; price, prepare, ga, oil, damage, major, san, governor, rise, cause; space, station, seen, nasa, international, cupola, victim, help, view, donation; path, look, like, monitor, david, camp, closely, fake, reporter, arriv; flood, hit, coverage, weather, house, week, channel, mis, hope, next; prayer, pray, affect, path, thought, everyone, people, god, go, know; im, get, go, hit, com, call, wait, gonna, like, cant; landfall, make, corpu, storm, christi, near, made, hit, could, southeast; people, pardon, dont, arpaio, evacuate, think, racist, good, would, coldplay |
| Trend in the Media | video, lik, change, climate, show, twitter, en, satellite, stream, approach; stay, everyone, please, hope, friend, good, path, ready, family, roar; flood, catastrophic, post, due, flee, thousand, storm, rainfall, intensifie, upgrade; center, national, say, pm, forecast, dog, number, one, threat, evacuate; storm, wind, strengthen, cat, break, toward, threaten, downgrade, year, high |
| Predicted Event Name | Representative Tweets and Terms |
|---|---|
| The Weather Channel | report, update, video, track, special, alert, lik, price, satellite, watch; weather, channel, coverage, blog, geek, video, lik, due, condition, severe; power, en, weather, update, outage, report, wake, el, statement, atlntico; weather, report, stay, channel, people, watch, go, pray, due, reporter; update, report, follow, latest, catastrophic, flood, rockport, expect, damage, due; update, report, txwx, periscope, center, add, weather, jeffpiotrowski, national, mb; update, latest, statement, pm, watch, report, day, gulf, et, make; update, latest, major, please, water, damage, stay, br, wind, weather; update, come, center, storm, ashore, upgrade, weather, noaa, safety, statement |
| Best of Weather Reports (Last Week of Aug) | weather, information, forecast, best, aug, update, know, last, predict, beach; update, wind, weather, report, cat, kt, stay, mov, tonight, without; report, corpu, information, christi, near, update, tx, landfall, latest, make; update, landfall, latest, make, weather, service, national, storm, expect, made; wind, weather, sustain, report, update, storm, maximum, eye, max, cat; update, give, friday, abbott, break, greg, school, alert, august, gov |
| Trend in the News Cycle | weather, see, update, bad, report, could, story, rain, top, latest; report, weather, storm, hurricane, damage, rain, southeast, lash, help, wind; report, prepare, effort, jim, multiple, acosta, apparently, ignore, update, continue; update, strengthen, pm, storm, cdt, cat, track, aug, wind, information; update, storm, downgrade, tropical, latest, saturday, flood, head, toward, made |
| Predicted Event Name | Representative Tweets and Terms |
|---|---|
| The Best of the Best | good, day, pardon, friday, happy, great, arpaio, real, im, though; good, morn, luck, gulf, people, wish, cat, storm, love, rain; love, job, great, good, director, handle, bug, laud, agency, help; good, luck, love, help, victim, better, dont, deserve, near, go; love, prayer, stay, send, path, everyone, thought, affect, good, people |
| A "Good" Weather Event | good, weather, great, dog, show, food, day, side, many, bag; great, would, love, help, could, relief, storm, change, climate, like; good, far, im, happy, coverage, great, watch, power, get, keep; good, luck, everybody, bear, wish, like, love, hit, bad, im; head, good, vacation, fac, luck, great, yell, crassly, love, stay; great, state, work, city, noth, gov, monitor, chance, federal, closely; good, luck, great, tell, camp, david, way, president, watch, doesnt; good, luck, path, message, people, everybody, approach, say, said, word; god, love, great, good, hit, bless, help, thank, die, pray; happy, love, thank, birthday, take, keep, great, ill, wait, away; good, luck, get, corpu, go, th, look, people, like, say; weekend, great, good, im, love, happy, let, go, cover, look; good, great, make, landfall, go, love, impact, still, morn, wind; pray, good, everyone, love, affect, hop, first, day, great, night |
Disclaimer/Publisher’s Note: The statements, opinions and data contained in all publications are solely those of the individual author(s) and contributor(s) and not of MDPI and/or the editor(s). MDPI and/or the editor(s) disclaim responsibility for any injury to people or property resulting from any ideas, methods, instructions or products referred to in the content. |
© 2024 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
