Version 1
: Received: 16 May 2024 / Approved: 16 May 2024 / Online: 16 May 2024 (18:22:26 CEST)
How to cite:
Ideki, O.; Ajoku, O. Scenario Analysis of Shoreline, Coastal Erosion, and Landuse/Land Cover Changes and Their Implication on Climate Migration in East and West Africa. Preprints2024, 2024051126. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202405.1126.v1
Ideki, O.; Ajoku, O. Scenario Analysis of Shoreline, Coastal Erosion, and Landuse/Land Cover Changes and Their Implication on Climate Migration in East and West Africa. Preprints 2024, 2024051126. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202405.1126.v1
Ideki, O.; Ajoku, O. Scenario Analysis of Shoreline, Coastal Erosion, and Landuse/Land Cover Changes and Their Implication on Climate Migration in East and West Africa. Preprints2024, 2024051126. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202405.1126.v1
APA Style
Ideki, O., & Ajoku, O. (2024). Scenario Analysis of Shoreline, Coastal Erosion, and Landuse/Land Cover Changes and Their Implication on Climate Migration in East and West Africa. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202405.1126.v1
Chicago/Turabian Style
Ideki, O. and Osinachi Ajoku. 2024 "Scenario Analysis of Shoreline, Coastal Erosion, and Landuse/Land Cover Changes and Their Implication on Climate Migration in East and West Africa" Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202405.1126.v1
Abstract
Climate change-induced Sea level rise, shoreline changes, and coastal erosion are projected to drive massive population displacement and mobility in Africa. This study was conducted to examine the pattern of shoreline changes, coastal erosion, land use/Land cover dynamics their projections, and its implications on internal migration in Senegal, Kenya and Tanzania representing West and East Africa. The digitized shoreline was mapped into both erosion, accretion and trend analysis which further explains the vulnerability and physical processes that could trigger human displacement within the context of environmental/climate migration. Analysis of landuse and land cover dynamics was obtained from Landsat 5 TM of 1986, Landsat 7 ET of 2006, Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS of 2016 and Landsat 9 OLI/TIRS 2022 and computed using ArcGIS 10.7 for Land-use change and percentage change in square kilometers was conducted to examine landuse/landcover dynamics and their contributions to the risk of coastal erosion in the study regions. The outcome of the shoreline analysis reveals that 972.03sqkm of land has been lost to coastal erosion in Senegal from 1986-2022 with 2016-2022 described as the period with the highest in terms of land loss. In Kenya, -463.30sqkm of land has also been lost to coastal erosion and agents of wave processes with 1986-2006 recording the highest share of -87.74% loss of valuable land while In Tanzania, -1033.35sqkm of valuable land has been lost from 1986-2022 to coastal erosion with 2006-2016 alone recording -10.4634% of land loss. The result of the land use/land cover percentage change analysis indicates a massive loss of vegetation cover with a significant increase in settlement representing urbanization. The scenario modeling of the shoreline on 10,20 and 30ms indicates that 567 persons per sq, 25904.5 persons per sqm and 25904.5 persons per sq km for both 20 and 30ms will be displaced in Senegal while in Kenya 577.5 persons per sq km will be displaced at 10m followed by 1210.3 persons per sq km at 20m and 7737.3 sq km at 30m. In, Tanzania, 702001.9 persons per sq km are projected to be displaced at 10m shift in the shoreline. Structured Questionnaires were administered to elicit responses from coastal dwellers on their perception of coastal erosion and environmental migration as part of ground truthing and the result of the survey affirms that coastal erosion and its exposure are the major drivers of environmental migration in the study area.
Keywords
Sea level rise, Shoreline changes, coastal erosion, Land use/Land cover dynamics, population displacement, climate migration, climate adaptation, West and East Africa
Subject
Environmental and Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science and Meteorology
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
