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Simulating EV Growth Scenarios in Jawa Madura Bali from 2024 to 2029: Balancing Power Grid Supply and Demand while Allocating Subsidies to Maintain Equilibrium
Version 1
: Received: 14 May 2024 / Approved: 14 May 2024 / Online: 14 May 2024 (12:50:39 CEST)
How to cite:
Tampubolon, J. V.; Dalimi, R. Simulating EV Growth Scenarios in Jawa Madura Bali from 2024 to 2029: Balancing Power Grid Supply and Demand while Allocating Subsidies to Maintain Equilibrium. Preprints2024, 2024050955. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202405.0955.v1
Tampubolon, J. V.; Dalimi, R. Simulating EV Growth Scenarios in Jawa Madura Bali from 2024 to 2029: Balancing Power Grid Supply and Demand while Allocating Subsidies to Maintain Equilibrium. Preprints 2024, 2024050955. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202405.0955.v1
Tampubolon, J. V.; Dalimi, R. Simulating EV Growth Scenarios in Jawa Madura Bali from 2024 to 2029: Balancing Power Grid Supply and Demand while Allocating Subsidies to Maintain Equilibrium. Preprints2024, 2024050955. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202405.0955.v1
APA Style
Tampubolon, J. V., & Dalimi, R. (2024). Simulating EV Growth Scenarios in Jawa Madura Bali from 2024 to 2029: Balancing Power Grid Supply and Demand while Allocating Subsidies to Maintain Equilibrium. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202405.0955.v1
Chicago/Turabian Style
Tampubolon, J. V. and Rinaldy Dalimi. 2024 "Simulating EV Growth Scenarios in Jawa Madura Bali from 2024 to 2029: Balancing Power Grid Supply and Demand while Allocating Subsidies to Maintain Equilibrium" Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202405.0955.v1
Abstract
To regulate the growth of battery-based electric vehicles (BEVs) in Indonesia and mitigate their impact on the power grid's supply-demand balance, the government can adjust BEV regulations and offer subsidies. The Jawa-Madura-Bali (Jamali) electrical system, being the largest in Indonesia [1], faces the challenge of accommodating the increasing number of vehicles [2]. Subsequent to analyzing Jamali's electricity supply using data from the National Electricity Company (RUPTL) [3], simulations are constructed to model the grid's demand side. Input variables such as Jamali's population, internal combustion engine (ICE) and electric vehicle populations, initial charging time (ICT), slow- and fast-charging ratios, and BEV charge load curves are simulated. Scenario variables like supply capacity growth speed, vehicle population growth speed, subsidy impact on EV attractiveness, ICT, and fast-charging ratio are subsequently simulated for 2024-2029. Four key simulation outcomes are identified: the best-case scenario (Scenario 1776), achieves the highest EV growth with minimal grid disruption, resulting in a 45.38% EV percentage in 2029 and requiring an annual allocation of 492 billion rupiah to match supply with demand. The worst outcome scenario leads to a 23.12% EV percentage, necessitating 47.566 billion rupiah for EV subsidies in 2029. Additionally, the most and least probable scenarios based on literature research are evaluated. This simulation and its results provide insights into EV growth's impact on the grid's balance in one presidential term from 2024 to 2029 [4], aiding the government in planning regulations and subsidies effectively. Improving the simulation's accuracy depends on refining input variables over time.
Keywords
Electric Vehicle; Power Grid; Supply Demand Balance; Electrical Grid; Electricity Demand Simulation; Electric Vehicle Subsidy; Electric Vehicle Charge Management; Electric Vehicle Growth Simulation
Subject
Engineering, Energy and Fuel Technology
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
