Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

On a New Theory of Climate Interference for MISs and Glacial Terminations from Antarctica Ice-core Records. 1: Interference Model

Version 1 : Received: 15 March 2024 / Approved: 15 March 2024 / Online: 15 March 2024 (16:50:47 CET)

How to cite: Viaggi, P. On a New Theory of Climate Interference for MISs and Glacial Terminations from Antarctica Ice-core Records. 1: Interference Model. Preprints 2024, 2024030941. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202403.0941.v1 Viaggi, P. On a New Theory of Climate Interference for MISs and Glacial Terminations from Antarctica Ice-core Records. 1: Interference Model. Preprints 2024, 2024030941. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202403.0941.v1

Abstract

Variance-driven decomposition based on the singular spectrum analysis of the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica (EPICA) dD, CO2 and CH4 records allowed a novel quantitative structural interpretation of all glacial/interglacial cycles and glacial terminations of the last 800 kyr. This bottom-up approach used the response components of EPICA stacked records to reconstruct the envelope of the thermal response through a physical interference model. The aim was to improve the understanding regarding the features of intensity, amplitude, and asymmetry of 73 marine isotope stages (MIS) and seven terminations. The Antarctic stack record can be described by a variance-weighted interference model of ten thermal waves of different origins (mid-term oscillation, orbitals and suborbitals) that stochastically interfere at a given time according to their relative differences in frequency, intensity, and polarity. Interglacial/glacial stages resulted from constructive interference and bipolar amplification of warming/cooling responses, respectively. The low intensity MISs (including 90% of substages) and the unbiased-dated terminations fell in the low interference regions where dominant destructive patterns minimise the thermal envelope. The positive skewness of the EPICA stack resulted from the constructive interference with a strong bias in the warming direction, especially after the Mid-Brunhes Event. Duration analysis of short eccentricity hemicycles exhibited an intrinsic unexpectedly prolonged mean cooling in the nominal solution (5.8 kyr) and its EPICA response as well (8.6 kyr), along with an interference-induced asymmetry (21.1 kyr). The overall effect resulted in the saw-tooth shape of glacial cycles which is heavily induced by interference and related to the intermediate feedback mechanisms controlled by short eccentricity.

Keywords

Antarctica; EPICA; Physical interference; Glacial stage; Interglacial stage; Stadial; Interstadial; Termination; Saw-tooth shape

Subject

Environmental and Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Geology

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