Ding, L.; Yu, Y.; Zhang, S. Trend Projections of Potential Evapotranspiration in Yangtze River Delta and the Uncertainty. Atmosphere2024, 15, 357.
Ding, L.; Yu, Y.; Zhang, S. Trend Projections of Potential Evapotranspiration in Yangtze River Delta and the Uncertainty. Atmosphere 2024, 15, 357.
Ding, L.; Yu, Y.; Zhang, S. Trend Projections of Potential Evapotranspiration in Yangtze River Delta and the Uncertainty. Atmosphere2024, 15, 357.
Ding, L.; Yu, Y.; Zhang, S. Trend Projections of Potential Evapotranspiration in Yangtze River Delta and the Uncertainty. Atmosphere 2024, 15, 357.
Abstract
Global warming may increase the potential evapotranspiration (Etp), thereby affecting the amount of clean water resources available in a region. In this study, the systematic biases in temperature outputs of 24 global climate models (GCMs) under 3 emission scenarios are corrected by using 8 bias correction methods. The trend of Etp in Yangzi River Delta in the 21st century is projected by using 4 Etp calculation formulas. The uncertainty of the projections is estimated and decomposed by using multi-way analysis of variance. The influence of uncertainty on the projected change signal is quantified by using the signal-to-noise ratio. The results show that, relative to the reference period (1971~2000), the annual mean daily Etp in Yangzi River Delta will increase by 0.14~0.17mm/d during the period 2021~2050 and by 0.21~0.41mm/d during the period 2061~2090, respectively. During 2021~2050, the uncertainty of Etp increase projections is dominantly contributed by the main effects of GCM (63%) and Etp calculation formula (24%). During 2061~2090, it is mainly contributed by the main effect of GCM (36%), followed by the main effects of emission scenario (34%) and Etp calculation formula (18%). The increase projections of Etp are generally reliable and robust during the two projection periods.
Environmental and Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science and Meteorology
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