Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Disaggregation Model: A Novel Methodology to Estimate Customers Profiles in a Low-Voltage Distribution Grid Equipped With Smart Meters

Version 1 : Received: 6 February 2024 / Approved: 7 February 2024 / Online: 7 February 2024 (08:14:02 CET)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Milis, G.R.; Gay, C.; Alvarez-Herault, M.-C.; Caire, R. Disaggregation Model: A Novel Methodology to Estimate Customers’ Profiles in a Low-Voltage Distribution Grid Equipped with Smart Meters. Information 2024, 15, 142. Milis, G.R.; Gay, C.; Alvarez-Herault, M.-C.; Caire, R. Disaggregation Model: A Novel Methodology to Estimate Customers’ Profiles in a Low-Voltage Distribution Grid Equipped with Smart Meters. Information 2024, 15, 142.

Abstract

In a context of increasingly necessary energy transition, precise modelling of profiles for low-voltage (LV) network consumers is crucial to enhance hosting capacity. Typically, load curves for these consumers are estimated through measurement campaigns conducted by Distribution System Operators (DSO) for a representative subset of customers or through the aggregation of load curves from household appliances within a residence. With the instrumentation of smart meters becoming more common, a new approach to modelling profiles for residential customers is proposed to make the most of the measurements from these meters. The disaggregation model estimates the load profile of customers on a low-voltage network by disaggregating the load curve measured at the secondary substation level. By utilizing only the maximum power measured by Linky smart meters, along with the load curve of the secondary substation, this model can estimate the daily profile of customers. For 48 secondary substations in our dataset, the model obtained an average symmetric mean average percentage error (SMAPE) error of 4.91% in reconstructing the load curve of the secondary substation from the curves disaggregated by the model. This methodology can allow the estimation of the daily consumption behaviors of the low-voltage customers. In this way, we can safely envision solutions that enhance the grid hosting capacity.

Keywords

Load Models; Low-voltage Grid; Load Curve; Disaggregation Model; Optimization; Curve Fitting; K-means; PCA.

Subject

Engineering, Electrical and Electronic Engineering

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