preprints.org > environmental and earth sciences > geography > doi: 10.20944/preprints202401.1854.v1

Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Version 1 : Received: 25 January 2024 / Approved: 25 January 2024 / Online: 26 January 2024 (07:00:38 CET)

The Ca Mau Peninsula situated in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam, features a low-lying terrain. Over recent years, the region has encountered the adverse impacts of climate change, leading to both land subsidence and rising sea levels. In this study, we assessed the land subsidence susceptibility in the Ca Mau peninsula utilizing three Boosting machine learning models: AdaBoost, Gradient Boosting, and Extremely Gradient Boosting (XGB). Eight key factors were identified as the most influential in land subsidence within Ca Mau: land cover (LULC), Groundwater levels, distance to roads, Digital Terrain Model (DTM), normalized vegetation index (NDVI), geology, soil composition, and proximity to rivers and streams. A dataset comprising 1950 subsidence sample points was employed for the model, with 1910 points obtained from the PSInSAR Radar method, and the remaining points derived from leveling measurements. The sample points were split, with 70% allocated to the training set and 30% to the testing set. Following computation and execution, the three models underwent evaluation for accuracy using statistical metrics such as the ROC curve, Area under the curve (AUC), Specificity, Sensitivity, and Overall Accuracy. The research findings revealed that the XGB model exhibited the highest accuracy, achieving an AUC above 0.9 for both the training and test sets. Consequently, XGB was chosen to construct a land subsidence susceptibility map for the Ca Mau peninsula.

AdaBoost; Gradient Boosting; XGBoost; Ca Mau; Subsidence susceptibility

Environmental and Earth Sciences, Geography

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