Lazar, L.; Boicenco, L.; Pantea, E.; Timofte, F.; Vlas, O.; Bișinicu, E. Modeling Dynamic Processes in the Black Sea Pelagic Habitat—Causal Connections between Abiotic and Biotic Factors in Two Climate Change Scenarios. Sustainability2024, 16, 1849.
Lazar, L.; Boicenco, L.; Pantea, E.; Timofte, F.; Vlas, O.; Bișinicu, E. Modeling Dynamic Processes in the Black Sea Pelagic Habitat—Causal Connections between Abiotic and Biotic Factors in Two Climate Change Scenarios. Sustainability 2024, 16, 1849.
Lazar, L.; Boicenco, L.; Pantea, E.; Timofte, F.; Vlas, O.; Bișinicu, E. Modeling Dynamic Processes in the Black Sea Pelagic Habitat—Causal Connections between Abiotic and Biotic Factors in Two Climate Change Scenarios. Sustainability2024, 16, 1849.
Lazar, L.; Boicenco, L.; Pantea, E.; Timofte, F.; Vlas, O.; Bișinicu, E. Modeling Dynamic Processes in the Black Sea Pelagic Habitat—Causal Connections between Abiotic and Biotic Factors in Two Climate Change Scenarios. Sustainability 2024, 16, 1849.
Abstract
The paper aims to introduce user-friendly modelling approaches to analyze how abiotic factors influence various trophic levels within the marine ecosystem, both naturally and through human impact. It specifically investigates the connections between environmental parameters (like temperature, salinity, and nutrients) and plankton along the Romanian Black Sea coast during the warm season (May-September) over a decade. Utilizing machine learning (ML) algorithms and data collected during this period, models were developed to project the proliferation of zooplankton. During the warm season, water temperature emerged as a significant factor affecting copepods and “other groups” zooplankton densities, while no discernible impact was noted on Noctiluca scintillans blooms. Salinity fluctuations notably influenced typical phytoplankton proliferation, with phosphate concentrations primarily driving widespread blooms. Two scenarios were explored for forecasting zooplankton growth: Business as Usual, predicting modest increases in temperature, salinity, and constant nutrient levels, and the Mild scenario, anticipating more substantial temperature and salinity increases while nutrients decrease significantly by 2042. The findings highlight that under both scenarios, Noctiluca scintillans displays notably high densities, with the second scenario projecting even higher values, surpassing the first by around 70%. These densities indicate characteristics of a eutrophic ecosystem, suggesting the potential implications of altered abiotic factors on ecosystem health.
Environmental and Earth Sciences, Environmental Science
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
