Sun, X.; Peng, A.; Hu, S.; Shi, Y.; Lu, L.; Bi, A. Dynamic Successive Assessment of Water Resource Carrying Capacity Based on System Dynamics Model and Variable Fuzzy Pattern Recognition Method. Water2024, 16, 304.
Sun, X.; Peng, A.; Hu, S.; Shi, Y.; Lu, L.; Bi, A. Dynamic Successive Assessment of Water Resource Carrying Capacity Based on System Dynamics Model and Variable Fuzzy Pattern Recognition Method. Water 2024, 16, 304.
Sun, X.; Peng, A.; Hu, S.; Shi, Y.; Lu, L.; Bi, A. Dynamic Successive Assessment of Water Resource Carrying Capacity Based on System Dynamics Model and Variable Fuzzy Pattern Recognition Method. Water2024, 16, 304.
Sun, X.; Peng, A.; Hu, S.; Shi, Y.; Lu, L.; Bi, A. Dynamic Successive Assessment of Water Resource Carrying Capacity Based on System Dynamics Model and Variable Fuzzy Pattern Recognition Method. Water 2024, 16, 304.
Abstract
The water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) system comprises multiple complex and nonlinear interactions related to society, economy, water resources and the water environment. A full understanding of its internal mechanism is conducive to the further improvement of the regional WRCC. This article focuses on the temporal and spatial variability of WRCC to explore a method of dynamic successive assessment. Firstly, the Pressure-State-Response (PSR)framework is used to develop a systematic and causal indicator system. Then, The Variable Fuzzy Pattern Recognition (VFPR) model and an analytic hierarchy process-entropy (AHP-E) model are combined to successively and dynamically assess WRCC. The proposed method is applied to the dynamic successive assessment of WRCC in Hebei Province, and it is obtained that the poor water resources carrying capacity in Hebei Province is mainly due to the basic attribute of the decision of the water resources shortage, but Hebei Province actively adopts a variety of measures to save water and pressurize mining, which makes the province's water resources carrying capacity have a tendency to become better gradually. At the same time, the system dynamics model (SD) of water resources carrying capacity based on the analysis of the model structure was established. Moreover, three scenarios were designed, including existing continuation, high-efficiency water-saving, cross-regional water transfer and coordinated development, each scenario divided into high and low-speed economic development and population growth schemes, then total 6 schemes between 2023 and 2030 were simulated and predicted respectively. The results indicate that if the current development model is adopted, the water resource carrying capacity will continue to maintain low levels. It was concluded that the high-speed development of economy and population, the efficient water conservation and inter-basin transfer scenario (scenario 2 with high-speed) is the best choice for sustainable development of water resources and social economy in Hebei.
Keywords
water resources carrying capacity; temporal and spatial variability; Variable Fuzzy Pattern Recognition model; dynamic assessment method; system dynamics model; scenario simulation
Subject
Environmental and Earth Sciences, Water Science and Technology
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
