preprints.org > medicine and pharmacology > oncology and oncogenics > doi: 10.20944/preprints202310.0564.v1

Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Version 1 : Received: 8 October 2023 / Approved: 9 October 2023 / Online: 10 October 2023 (08:12:44 CEST)

The Surgical Complexity Score (SCS) has been widely used to describe the surgical effort during advanced stage epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) cytoreduction. Referring to a variety of multi-visceral resections, it best combines the numbers with the complexity of the sub-procedures. Nevertheless, not all potential surgical procedures are described by this score. Lately, the European Society for Gynaecological Oncology (ESGO) has established standard outcome quality indicators pertinent to achieving complete cytoreduction (CC0). There is a need to define what weight all these surgical sub-procedures comprising CC0 would be given. Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) could explain the impact of real-time features on the CC0 prediction. We analyzed prospectively collected data from 560 consecutive patients with FIGO-stage III-IV who underwent cytoreductive surgery between Jan 2014 and Dec 2019 at a UK tertiary referral centre. Following adaptation of the structured ESGO ovarian cancer report template, we employed the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm to model an exhaustive list of surgical sub-procedures. We applied the Shapley Additive explanations (SHAP) framework to provide global (cohort) explainability. We used Cox regression for survival analysis and constructed Kaplan-Meier curves. The XGBoost model predicted CC0 with an acceptable accuracy (area under curve [AUC] = 0.70; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.63–0.76). Visual quantification of the feature importance for the prediction of CC0 identified upper abdominal peritonectomy (UAP) as the most important feature, followed by regional lymphadenectomies. The UAP best correlated with bladder peritonectomy and diaphragmatic stripping (Pearson’s correlations > 0.5). Clear inflection points were shown by pelvic and para-aortic lymph node dissection and ileocecal resection/right hemicolectomy, which increased the probability for CC0. When UAP was solely added to a composite model comprising of engineered features, it substantially enhanced its predictive value (AUC = 0.80, CI = 0.75-0.84). The UAP was predictive of poorer progression-free survival (HR=1.76, CI 1.14- 2.70, P:0.01) but not overall survival (HR=1.06, CI 0.56-1.99, P:0.86). The SCS did not have significant survival impact. Machine Learning allows for operational feature selection by weighting the relative importance of those surgical sub-procedures that appear to be more predictive of CC0. Our study identifies UAP as the most important procedural predictor of CC0 in surgically cytoreduced advanced-stage EOC women. The classification model presented here can potentially be trained with a larger number of samples to generate a robust digital surgical reference in high output tertiary centres. The upper abdominal quadrants should be thoroughly inspected to ensure that CC0 is achievable.

ovarian cancer; complete cytoreduction; Artificial Intelligence; eXplainable Artificial Intelligence; upper abdominal perotonectomy; Machine Learning; SHAP values

Medicine and Pharmacology, Oncology and Oncogenics

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