Sustainable Solutions: Examining the Influence of Energy Subsidy Strategies on Urban Heat Islands in the Persian Gulf Region

1. Introduction

With the rapid development of industry in recent decades, people in the Persian Gulf Region have been migrating to cities, causing urban ecological and environmental problems [1]. New research by the World Bank projects that millions more could be on the move in the next few decades due to challenges related to thermal conditions in urban environment [2]. These challenges impact the comfort of people's living standards, the climate, the atmospheric environment, and the natural habitats, resulting in higher energy usage and the release of greenhouse gases [3]. The thermal conditions in urban areas have notable effects on the local climate and micrometeorology. The changes in these conditions over time and space are closely linked to societal and economic activities. [4,5].

Abdolmajid Naderi Beni and colleagues [6] have provided evidence, using temperature data from the Global Historical Climatology, that indicates a minimum temperature rise of Co2 in the Persian Gulf Region since 1950. This temperature increase is linked to the impact of greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere, leading to radiative forcing. Several studies have consistently shown a warming trend in the region during recent decades, as there has been a substantial increase in the occurrence of warm days [7,8,9,10]. This data has led some researchers to predict that heat waves in the Persian Gulf Region will surpass the critical threshold for human adaptability in the next few decades [11]. Over the last decade, these extreme temperature (ET) events have become more intense and occur more frequently [12,13] resulting in substantial social and environmental consequences [14,15].

Regional warming has a stronger seasonal response [16]. Extreme temperatures (ETs) have detrimental consequences on both the economy and public health in the countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region [17,18]. Heatwaves in the MENA environment are expected to have negative impacts on human health [19,20] agriculture [21], water supply, available energy [22,23] and other socioeconomic sectors. Urbanization is already high and increasing, resulting in greater thermal stress due to the urban heat island effect (UHIE) [24].

The urban heat island (UHI) is the prominent climatic effect of urbanization, leading to negative impacts on the thermal comfort and overall well-being of urban residents. Previous research has indicated temperature variations, with a range of 1 to 2 °C between non-residential and urban areas, 1 to 7 °C between non-residential and green areas, and 1 to 5 °C between urban areas and green areas. [25] .The increasing residential construction in the urban areas of Persian Gulf Region contributes to some of the highest energy consumption rates globally. With increased energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions also escalate, and these emissions are widely acknowledged as the main driver of climate change and its associated impacts [26].

The main cause of increased temperature in the Persian Gulf Region is Carbon Dioxide Emission (CO2e). Energy-related CO2e differs from country to country due to domestic energy configurations, however, researchers have been able to link economic growth to energy consumption [27]. The increase in economic growth has negatively impacted environmental sustainability and led to environmental degradation at both the national and global levels [28].

Carbon dioxide emissions of across many nations of the world have been studied. In the Middle East and North Africa [29] energy consumption and emission of CO2 analyzed by using data Estimates based on envelope analysis. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is a quantitative technique used to evaluate the relative efficiency of multiple decision-making units (DMUs). Mohammed Qader [30] in his research established a connection between the electricity consumption of Persian Gulf Cooperation Countries (GCC) and their corresponding CO2 emissions, utilizing data on electricity consumption in the region.

Hdom (2019) [31] conducted a study on the influence of electricity production on CO2e (carbon dioxide equivalent) in South America. The findings revealed a positive relationship between electricity production and Economic Growth (EGT), while Renewable Energy Consumption (REC) was found to be helpful in reducing pollution. The author recommended the utilization of REC to mitigate CO2e in South America. Ridhosari and Rahman (2020) [32] demonstrated that Electricity Consumption (ELEC) is a key factor positively impacting CO2e. Liddle and Sadorsky (2017) [33] investigated the effects of electricity production on CO2e, finding that an 11% increase in electricity production leads to a 0.82% decrease in CO2e. The rapid socioeconomic development, advancements in desalination technologies, materials, and design solutions have fueled unprecedented growth in desert cities [34]. Consequently, these newly developed cities have become focal points for local climate modification and environmental changes [35].

Policymakers and energy analysts are concerned about the side effects of energy use and related social welfare on the environment, and the regulations designed to reduce energy use may not be effective. The qualitative aspect of energy use is becoming increasingly important in environmental improvement and sustainable development. The United Nations has taken steps to address the adverse effects of greenhouse gases by signing the UNFCC's Kyoto Protocol (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change), which is an intergovernmental agreement. During the first commitment period (2008-2012), developed nations have an obligation to decrease their overall greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by at least 5% below the levels observed in 1990 [36,37].

The energy subsidy provided to consumers in oil-rich countries in the Persian Gulf Region is a significant factor that impacts energy consumption. It aims to lower energy costs but has inadvertently led to excessive use of fossil fuels. Consequently, the subsidies have reduced the motivation for investing in renewable energy sources [38,39] while reducing the incentives for further investments in renewable energies [40,41]. According to the IEA [42], certain countries provide energy subsidies to lower expenses for energy consumers. Regrettably, these subsidies primarily benefit fossil fuels s [43,44] a with a significant portion allocated to non-OECD countries [45]. Consequently, oil-rich nations with inexpensive energy prices should reassess their energy subsidy policies [46].

n a comparative analysis conducted by Dorsa Fatourehchi et al., countries with and without energy subsidies were examined to analyze trends in domestic electricity usage. The findings revealed a correlation between higher domestic electricity consumption and the presence of generous subsidies provided to the public. Additionally, climatic and non-climatic factors also influenced the rise in domestic electricity usage, particularly in Iran. [47]. Al-Marri [48] investigated the current energy use of residents in Qatar to understand consumer behavior. The energy subsidy has a negative impact on energy efficiency, as it does not encourage occupants to reduce their energy consumption [49,50].

Previous studies have underscored the negative effects of energy subsidies on achieving sustainable development goals and the difficulty of managing rising energy demand in countries that implement such subsidies. In response to these concerns, multiple scholars have advocated for revising subsidy policies to tackle the associated challenges. As evidenced by studies conducted in China [22,36] t has been suggested that energy subsidy reform can serve as a potential solution for reducing energy consumption. However, it is recognized that this measure alone is insufficient.

Additional research [51,52] has emphasized the necessity of finding alternative solutions to replace fossil fuel subsidies. These alternatives could include promoting the development of renewable energies or implementing robust social security systems. Such measures have the potential to prevent substantial inefficiencies in energy consumption patterns within the Middle East regions. The aim of this paper is to investigate how changes in national energy subsidy policies, through investments in sustainable energy, can serve as a catalyst for reducing CO2 emissions and mitigating the urban heat island effect (UHIE) in the Persian Gulf Region.

Ahmad et al. [53] analyzed the relationship between sustainable investment, environmental degradation, and sustainable development in the Chinese economy at the provincial level. They employed the generalized method of moments (GMM) approach for result estimation. The findings indicated that sustainable investment and development play a positive role in addressing environmental issues and promoting improvement in this regard.

The Persian Gulf Region, heavily affected by the urban heat island effect, provides a significant case study for comprehending the environmental repercussions of ongoing global changes [54,55,56]. This study specifically examines the energy consumption levels in the region, which contribute to CO2 emissions. Furthermore, by exploring the transformation of energy subsidy strategies, Persian Gulf countries can address the challenges posed by localized urban heat. Ultimately, we investigate the extent to which national climate-focused policies and adaptation plans can serve as catalysts for resolving conflicts in the Persian Gulf Region.

2. Data source and analysis

The paper is structured into three sections. The first section delves into the rise in carbon dioxide emissions as the primary factor contributing to the urban heat island effect (UHIE). The second section compares oil-rich countries, particularly focusing on their fossil fuel subsidy status, to examine the impact of energy prices on household electricity demand. Iran is specifically examined as a case study in this analysis. Lastly, the third section highlights solutions suggested by previous research to decrease energy consumption and underscores the significance of investing in and allocating subsidies towards sustainable energy sources as an effective solution to be integrated into the policymaking process.

The study focused on Iran, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, and Qatar as the selected countries. Iraq was not included due to insufficient information. The research gathered data on energy-related CO2 emissions from 2010 to 2020, obtained from the International Energy Statistics of the United States Energy Information Administration (US EIA). Trend analysis was utilized to model and predict CO2 emissions related to energy consumption. Initially, this method was used to identify trends in the CO2 emissions of each country within the group.This study proposes to examine the impacts of energy consumption following fossil fuels subsidies on UHIE in the PGR for research analysis between 2000 to 2020. We have utilized diverse data from various global, regional, and national sources spanning multiple disciplines.

Climate data for the study areas were acquired from multiple sources, including the Meteomanz website [58] and the Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKL) for the period of 2006-2020 [59]. Additionally, insights into precipitation and temperature trends were obtained from Community Climate System Model 4 (CCSM4) data provided by Beni et al. (2021) [6].

This study builds upon recently published research for multiple purposes. It investigates and evaluates the influence of CO2e by utilizing the works of Teng et al. (2020) [60], Liddle and Sadorsky (2017) [33], and Rid- hosari and Rahman (2020)[32]], where ELEC is employed as the primary measure for CO2e.

3. Environmental Framework

3.1. Climate of the Region

The Persian Gulf Region is situated between 24° to 30° 30’ N latitude and 48° to 56° 25’ E longitude, between the Arabian Peninsula to the Southwest and Iran to the Northeast (Figure 1). It is part of the Indian Ocean, with a shallow water body, low currents, and a high level of salinity. It has many islands, with Bahrain being the largest. It is bordered by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran [60]. The PGR is a shallow, semi-enclosed marginal sea connected to the Gulf of Oman through the Strait of HorMuz in the east. It has asymmetric bathymetric features along its main axis and is hypersaline due to its arid climate [61].

During the summer months (June to August), the lowland areas of the Persian Gulf Region can encounter extremely high air temperatures surpassing 50°C. The average monthly temperature in summer exceeds 32°C [62]. Conversely, winters in these lowland areas bring moderate temperatures, and the period from November to March receives the highest amount of precipitation. The Shamal wind, known as the north wind in Arabic, is the prevailing and forceful wind in the region, carrying approximately 90 million tons of dust annually [63,64].

During July 2021, several captivating nations in the Middle East experienced highly volatile conditions. The region was plagued by scorching temperatures and severe droughts, resulting in devastating forest fires and cities transforming into unbearable heat pockets. In June, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia all recorded temperatures surpassing 50 degrees Celsius (122 degrees Fahrenheit). Approximately a month later, Iran came close to reaching 51 degrees Celsius (123.8 degrees Fahrenheit). Alarmingly, this is just the beginning of a worrisome trend, as the Middle East is warming at a rate twice as fast as the global average. By 2050, it is projected to be 4 degrees Celsius warmer, a stark contrast to the 1.5-degree threshold suggested by scientists to safeguard humanity. According to the World Bank, the region will likely face routine extreme climatic conditions, with four months of scorching sun each year.

By comparing annual max average temperature in the Persian Gulf Region from 2006 to 2022 it can be realized that temperature increase around 2 ºC in most of the countries (Table 1).

The outputs data of the Community Climate System Model 4 (CCSM4) [6] for the anomalies of land surface temperature from 1900 in West Asia suggest that an increase of 5 o C in temperature by 2100 in some regions. Some regions will experience more than 5 o C increase in by 2100 (Figure 2).

3.2. Annual Percipitation

The average annual rainfall in the Persian Gulf Region varies significantly and is largely dependent on geography and orography. The average annual rainfall on the southern coasts and over the Gulf is less than 100 mm while the northern watershed areas (Iran and Iraq) receive, on average, 355 mm of precipitation annually [56], The Persian Gulf Region (PGR) experiences higher latitudes and distinctive orography, which contribute to its water resource challenges (as shown in Table 2). In order to compensate for the scarcity of fresh water, the PGR heavily relies on desalination plants (as depicted in Figure 3). Out of the 15,900 operational desalination plants worldwide, half of them are located in this region [65].

The water resource difficulties in the Persian Gulf Region (PGR) stem from its elevated latitudes and unique terrain characteristics (as indicated in Table 2). To overcome the scarcity of freshwater, the PGR extensively depends on desalination plants (as illustrated in Figure 3). Remarkably, out of the 15,900 operational desalination plants globally, half of them are situated within this region [57].

4. Energy

The Persian Gulf Region possesses abundant oil and gas reserves, leading to rapid economic growth. This growth is evident through the significant coastal urbanization and the development of offshore oil and gas extraction in the region [66,67,68] (Figure 4). Additionally, the Gulf countries heavily rely on oil and gas revenues for other major economic sectors, such as petrochemical industries, transportation, storage, and efficient communication networks (Figure 4).

Therefore, the Persian Gulf Region's energy consumption has risen significantly since the second half of the twentieth century, and regional energy demand will be increasing at a rapid pace (Table 1). In recent years, the proportion of fossil fuels has grown [69]., and the Persian Gulf Region has become increasingly reliant on fossil fuels as a source of energy (Figure 4). However, countries such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Iran, have recently made significant investments in nuclear energy (Figure 4), while, the use of such energy in the Persian Gulf Region is debatable in terms of nuclear arms race, especially between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Iran relies on various primary energy sources such as crude oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear, and renewable energy(Figure 4). Among these, natural gas plays a crucial role as the primary source of energy for power plants in Iran. However, this reliance on natural gas leads to higher CO2 emissions compared to other energy sources. Additionally, natural gas is also used extensively in buildings for heating, cooking, lighting, and cooling (Figure 5) highlighting its significant contribution to the energy consumption in the Persian Gulf Region, including Iran.

The energy consumption in Iran and Saudi Arabia increased around three times in 2020 compared to 2000. With this sharp increase in demand for energy, city dwellers can experience more UHIE in their cities. (Figure 6). Iran holds the position of being the biggest energy consumer in the Middle East and North Africa region, specifically in the Persian Gulf area [73].

5. Carbon dioxide emission

The Persian Gulf Region are the world's largest producers of crude oil, leading to the emission of CO2 into the environment [74]. Approximately, 5.5% of the world's CO2e come from the Persian Gulf Region, a percentage that has increased since the 1980s (Figure 7). Carbon emissions have doubled in this region due to reliance on power sources for air conditioning, seawater desalination, and coal burning power plants [56]. The world's sixth largest consumer of oil and gas is Saudi Arabia followed by Iran, which imports natural gas despite hosting the world's largest natural gas reserve [75].

In 2010, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) had a carbon dioxide emissions rate of 44 metric tons per person, which is ten times higher than the global average (Table 3). Following closely were Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, with carbon dioxide emissions rates of 39 and 21 tons per person, respectively. On the other hand, Iran and Iraq had relatively lower emissions, with rates of 7.6 and 3.9 tons per person, respectively [76].

As highlighted in a recent report [77] carbon dioxide emissions (CO2e) have emerged as the primary source of global greenhouse gas emissions. These emissions have witnessed a 25% rise due to human activities driven by significant increases in world population, urbanization, industrial activities, and energy consumption. The utilization of energy in diverse forms plays a perilous role in influencing both local and global climates.

The global population, urbanization, industrial activities, and energy consumption are interconnected factors. The utilization of energy in diverse forms has a significant and concerning impact on both local and global climates [78].

In terms of carbon emissions per capita (PGR) in 2020, as shown in Figure 8, Iran and Saudi Arabia were the largest producers of GHGs. According to IEA Data Services [79] Iran with 678.2 and Saudi Arabia with 570.8 million tons were also responsible for high carbon dioxide emissions, while Qatar and Oman had minimal emissions of 87.7 and 80.4 million tons, respectively.

An analysis conducted by the International Energy Agency (IEA) revealed that the industry, transport, and buildings sectors play a crucial role in generating carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) emissions from energy consumption. Specifically, buildings contribute significantly to these emissions, accounting for 17.5% of the total [47]. Within the building sector, residential buildings hold a notable share, contributing 19% to the overall emissions [80] (Table 4).

In Iran, a comparison of CO2e reveals a significant increase in emissions from natural gas, surpassing other primary energy sources. This indicates a substantial growth in CO2e emissions associated with the use of natural gas in Iran, in comparison to other energy sources(Figure 9).

6. Examining the subsidy provided to fossil fuels in PGR

The Persian Gulf Region countries use fossil fuel subsidies to reduce energy costs and improve living standards for their citizens [81]. Nevertheless, a drawback associated with the reduction of energy costs is the excessive reliance on fossil fuels to meet the energy and electricity demands of buildings. The allocation of subsidies to fossil fuels varies among different countries, including oil, electricity, gas, and coal (Figure 10). Notably, the data for Oman is unavailable, resulting in its exclusion from Figure 10. In the case of Iran, the primary energy resources, oil and gas, receive the highest level of subsidies, consequently resulting in low electricity prices within the country.

Iran offers substantial electricity subsidies, leading to some of the most affordable electricity prices compared to other countries. (Figure 11). As a result, there has been a substantial increase in the demand for electricity within Iran, as mention [47]. According to Fattouh and El-Katiri [84], state that energy consumption in the Middle East and North Africa has more than quadrupled, with electricity usage growing over sixfold in the past three decades.