Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Compound Extremes of Droughts and Pluvials: A Review and Exploration of Spatio-Temporal Characteristics and Associated Risks in the Canadian Prairies

Version 1 : Received: 25 August 2023 / Approved: 28 August 2023 / Online: 29 August 2023 (08:38:57 CEST)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Wheaton, E.; Bonsal, B.; Sauchyn, D. Compound Extremes of Droughts and Pluvials: A Review and Exploration of Spatio-Temporal Characteristics and Associated Risks in the Canadian Prairies. Water 2023, 15, 3509. Wheaton, E.; Bonsal, B.; Sauchyn, D. Compound Extremes of Droughts and Pluvials: A Review and Exploration of Spatio-Temporal Characteristics and Associated Risks in the Canadian Prairies. Water 2023, 15, 3509.

Abstract

The Canadian Prairies are associated with high natural hydroclimatic variability including the frequent periodic occurrence of droughts and pluvials. These extremes carry various risks in-cluding significant damage to the economy, environment and society. The well-documented level of damage necessitates further risk assessment and planned reductions to vulnerability, particu-larly in light of a warming climate. A logical starting point involves awareness and information about the changing characteristics of such climate extremes. We focus on the compound occurrence of droughts and pluvials as the risks from this type of event are magnified compared to the hy-droclimatic extremes in isolation. Also, research on compound droughts and pluvials is limited. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to synthesize recent literature concerning the risks of com-pound droughts and pluvials, including examples of past occurrences, with a focus on the Cana-dian Prairies. Since literature from the Prairies is limited, global work is also reviewed. Rela-tionships between drought and pluvials are characterized using the SPEI Global Monitor for the Prairies, emphasizing the recent past, and through synthesis from the Prairie literature. That re-search mostly considers drought and pluvials as separate events, but is integrated here to charac-terize the relationships of these extremes. Examples of periods of compound droughts and exces-sive rainfall provide insights into the regional hydroclimatic variability. Furthermore, most lit-erature on future projections strongly suggests that this variability is likely to increase, mainly driven by anthropogenic climate change. These findings suggest means of decreasing vulnerabil-ity and associated damages. Although the study area is the Canadian Prairies, the work is rele-vant to other regions that are becoming more vulnerable to increasing risks of and vulnerabilities to such compound extremes.

Keywords

droughts; pluvials; excessive moisture; extreme climate events; compound drought and pluvials; compound extremes; climate change; risk; vulnerability; Canadian Prairies

Subject

Environmental and Earth Sciences, Environmental Science

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