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Simulating Heavy Rainfall Associated with Tropical Cyclones and Atmospheric Disturbances in Thailand using the Coupled WRF-ROMS Model - Sensitivity Analysis of Microphysics and Cumulus Parameterization Schemes
Version 1
: Received: 20 July 2023 / Approved: 21 July 2023 / Online: 21 July 2023 (11:37:58 CEST)
How to cite:
Torsri, K.; Faikrua, A.; Peangta, P.; Sawangwattanaphaibun, R.; Akaranee, J.; Sarinnapakorn, K. Simulating Heavy Rainfall Associated with Tropical Cyclones and Atmospheric Disturbances in Thailand using the Coupled WRF-ROMS Model - Sensitivity Analysis of Microphysics and Cumulus Parameterization Schemes. Preprints2023, 2023071489. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202307.1489.v1
Torsri, K.; Faikrua, A.; Peangta, P.; Sawangwattanaphaibun, R.; Akaranee, J.; Sarinnapakorn, K. Simulating Heavy Rainfall Associated with Tropical Cyclones and Atmospheric Disturbances in Thailand using the Coupled WRF-ROMS Model - Sensitivity Analysis of Microphysics and Cumulus Parameterization Schemes. Preprints 2023, 2023071489. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202307.1489.v1
Torsri, K.; Faikrua, A.; Peangta, P.; Sawangwattanaphaibun, R.; Akaranee, J.; Sarinnapakorn, K. Simulating Heavy Rainfall Associated with Tropical Cyclones and Atmospheric Disturbances in Thailand using the Coupled WRF-ROMS Model - Sensitivity Analysis of Microphysics and Cumulus Parameterization Schemes. Preprints2023, 2023071489. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202307.1489.v1
APA Style
Torsri, K., Faikrua, A., Peangta, P., Sawangwattanaphaibun, R., Akaranee, J., & Sarinnapakorn, K. (2023). Simulating Heavy Rainfall Associated with Tropical Cyclones and Atmospheric Disturbances in Thailand using the Coupled WRF-ROMS Model - Sensitivity Analysis of Microphysics and Cumulus Parameterization Schemes. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202307.1489.v1
Chicago/Turabian Style
Torsri, K., Jakrapop Akaranee and Kanoksri Sarinnapakorn. 2023 "Simulating Heavy Rainfall Associated with Tropical Cyclones and Atmospheric Disturbances in Thailand using the Coupled WRF-ROMS Model - Sensitivity Analysis of Microphysics and Cumulus Parameterization Schemes" Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202307.1489.v1
Abstract
This study aims to identify the optimal combination of microphysics (MP) and cumulus (CU) parameterization schemes for accurately simulating heavy to violet rainfall events associated with Tropical Cyclones (TCs) and atmospheric disturbances in Thailand using the coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Regional Oceanic Model (ROMS), hereafter referred to as WRF-ROMS. Three CU schemes, namely Betts–Miller–Janjic (BMJ), Grell 3D Ensemble (G3), and Kain–Fritsch (KF), along with three MP schemes, namely Eta (ETA), Purdue Lin (LIN), and WRF Single-moment 3-class (WSM3), are selected for the sensitivity analysis. Seven instances of heavy to violent rainfall in Thailand, occurring during summer season of 2020 and associated with tropical storms and atmospheric disturbances, are simulated using all possible combinations of the chosen physics schemes. The simulated rain intensities are compared against observations from the National Hydroinformatics Data Center. Performance was assessed using the Probability of Detection (POD), False Alarm Ratio (FAR), and Critical Success Index (CSI) metrics. The models showed proficiency in predicting light to moderate rainfall, with certain combinations performing better in specific rainfall categories. However, forecasting heavy and violent rainfall proved challenging for all models and lead-time forecasts. Specific combinations, particularly those incorporating the KF scheme, demonstrated superior prediction of heavy to violent rainfall. The FAR values increased with lead-time and rain intensity, and the KF scheme combinations showed improved predictions of intense rainfall with lower FAR values. The CSI values indicated comparable performance between the control model and combination models across light to heavy rain categories, with the KF scheme showing better predictions for longer lead-times. However, accurately predicting intense rainfall remained limited. These findings highlight the need for further improvements, including refining model parameters and exploring advanced techniques to enhance accuracy and skill, particularly for longer-term forecasts. Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction should be considered to extend forecast capabilities.
Keywords
Heavy rainfall prediction; Coupled WRF-ROMS; Thailand; Tropical cyclones and atmospheric disturbances
Subject
Environmental and Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science and Meteorology
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.