Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Load, Electrification Adoption, and Behind-the-Meter Solar Forecasts for Alaska’s Railbelt Transmission System

Phylicia Cicilio
* ORCID logo ,
Alexis Francisco
,
Cameron Morelli
,
Michelle Wilber
ORCID logo ,
Christopher Pike
ORCID logo ,
Jeremy VanderMeer
ORCID logo ,
Steve Colt
,
Dominique Pride
,
Noelle K Helder
Version 1 : Received: 12 July 2023 / Approved: 13 July 2023 / Online: 14 July 2023 (09:03:00 CEST)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Cicilio, P.; Francisco, A.; Morelli, C.; Wilber, M.; Pike, C.; VanderMeer, J.; Colt, S.; Pride, D.; Helder, N.K. Load, Electrification Adoption, and Behind-the-Meter Solar Forecasts for Alaska’s Railbelt Transmission System. Energies 2023, 16, 6117. Cicilio, P.; Francisco, A.; Morelli, C.; Wilber, M.; Pike, C.; VanderMeer, J.; Colt, S.; Pride, D.; Helder, N.K. Load, Electrification Adoption, and Behind-the-Meter Solar Forecasts for Alaska’s Railbelt Transmission System. Energies 2023, 16, 6117.

Abstract

Load forecasting is an important component of power system and resource planning for electrical grids. The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs), behind-the-meter (BTM) solar, and heat pumps will significant change the amount and variability of loads. Electrification adoption and load forecasting in arctic regions and Alaska is limited. This paper provides the first load and electrification adoption forecast for the Alaska Railbelt transmission system, including yearly adoption rates of EVs, BTM solar, and heat pumps and hourly load data. Adoption rates are based on available historical data and compared to other regional and national trends. Two forecasts are created: 1) a moderate adoption forecast based on projections from current adoption rates and comparisons to other projections, and 2) an aggressive forecast, which provides a bookend comparison at the high adoption rate of 90% for all technologies. The results of these forecasts demonstrate a significant increase in both energy, 80% and 116% for moderate and aggressive, respectively and peak load demand, 113% and 219% for moderate and aggressive, respectively. Additionally, the results indicate a maximum hourly load change of 260% and 381% for the moderate and aggressive forecasts, respectively. These findings highlight a need for resource planning, which accounts for increases in demand and suggests that significant demand management is needed to smooth and control the load fluctuations as a result of the adoption of EVs, BTM solar, and heat pumps.

Keywords

load forecast; electrification; heat pumps; electric vehicles; solar; Alaska; Railbelt

Subject

Engineering, Energy and Fuel Technology

Copyright: This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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