Alsafadi, K.; Bi, S.; Bashir, B.; Alsalman, A.; Srivastava, A.K. Future Scenarios of Bioclimatic Viticulture Indices in the Eastern Mediterranean: Insights into Sustainable Vineyard Management in a Changing Climate. Sustainability2023, 15, 11740.
Alsafadi, K.; Bi, S.; Bashir, B.; Alsalman, A.; Srivastava, A.K. Future Scenarios of Bioclimatic Viticulture Indices in the Eastern Mediterranean: Insights into Sustainable Vineyard Management in a Changing Climate. Sustainability 2023, 15, 11740.
Alsafadi, K.; Bi, S.; Bashir, B.; Alsalman, A.; Srivastava, A.K. Future Scenarios of Bioclimatic Viticulture Indices in the Eastern Mediterranean: Insights into Sustainable Vineyard Management in a Changing Climate. Sustainability2023, 15, 11740.
Alsafadi, K.; Bi, S.; Bashir, B.; Alsalman, A.; Srivastava, A.K. Future Scenarios of Bioclimatic Viticulture Indices in the Eastern Mediterranean: Insights into Sustainable Vineyard Management in a Changing Climate. Sustainability 2023, 15, 11740.
Abstract
The evaluation of suitability for bioclimatic viticulture indices (BVIs) zones, as with any other crop, requires a well-founded knowledge of the spatial variability in climate data, which is also used to assess different grapevine cultivars and to delimit appropriate regions for vineyard production under the current climate and projected climate change. BVIs, on the other hand, are typically calculated using a small number of locations linked by climatic station sites or applied using a coarsely-resolution distributed dataset. Furthermore, often the methods applied to precisely delineate symmetrical regions are not appropriate to generate accurate maps. To provide an analysis using three temperature-based indices and the hydrothermal coefficient (HTC), quantifying their spatial variation, and representing the spatial patterns of each BVI throughout the Jabal Al Arab viticulture—one of the most important Syrian viticulture regions in the Eastern Mediterranean—daily temperature data from 15 meteorological stations and 57 rain gauges, considering the 1984–2014 period, and downscaled future scenarios (RCPs based on CanESM2), considering the 2016–2100 period, were utilized. The statistical method of each BVI was analyzed, and, later, they were mapped by using GIS and a hybrid interpolation (regression-kriging) approach. The regression fitting method revealed that the sum accumulation of heat and the hydro-thermal index during the growing season were highly related to elevation and distance to the seacoast variables; however, the viticulture zones varied spatially depending on which index was used and under suggested future scenarios compared to the current climate. The spatial distribution of climate in the Jabal Al Arab regions exhibits significant variability. The findings suggest that climate change projections indicate a prevalence of warmer conditions in the future. Under the RCP scenarios, the territory can be categorized into up to three bioclimatic classes for both the Heat Index (HI) and the Winter Index-Growing Degree Days (WI-GDD), in contrast to the current climate which has six classes. These results provide valuable insights into the suitability of viticulture within each climatic region and facilitate the identification of homogeneous zones. The utilization of consistent bioclimatic indices and an advanced hybrid interpolation method has enabled the delineation and comparison of bioclimatic variables of Jabal Al Arab with other regions worldwide. Such comparisons should be considered when selecting grapevine varieties and assessing the potential for grape production.
Environmental and Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science and Meteorology
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