Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

A Mathematical Model to Study the Potential Hepatitis B Virus Carriers and Effect of Vaccination Strategies in China

Chuanqing Xu
* ORCID logo ,
Yu Wang
,
Kedeng Cheng
,
Xin Yang
,
Xiaojing Wang
,
Songbai Guo
,
Maoxing Liu
,
Xiaoling Liu
Version 1 : Received: 7 June 2023 / Approved: 7 June 2023 / Online: 7 June 2023 (11:40:49 CEST)
Version 2 : Received: 13 June 2023 / Approved: 14 June 2023 / Online: 14 June 2023 (04:12:55 CEST)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Xu, C.; Wang, Y.; Cheng, K.; Yang, X.; Wang, X.; Guo, S.; Liu, M.; Liu, X. A Mathematical Model to Study the Potential Hepatitis B Virus Infections and Effects of Vaccination Strategies in China. Vaccines 2023, 11, 1530. Xu, C.; Wang, Y.; Cheng, K.; Yang, X.; Wang, X.; Guo, S.; Liu, M.; Liu, X. A Mathematical Model to Study the Potential Hepatitis B Virus Infections and Effects of Vaccination Strategies in China. Vaccines 2023, 11, 1530.

Abstract

Hepatitis B is a potentially life-threatening infectious disease caused by the hepatitis B virus (HBV), which affects the liver. Every year, about 390,000 people die from HBV-related diseases in China, about 86 million people are carriers of HBV, accounting for about 6% of the total population, and 30 million people are chronically infected. From 2002 to 2007, though China government launched “The Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI)” program to reduce HBV infection in children, but the number of hepatitis B cases in China remains high. Reasonable estimation of potential HBV carriers is crucial to prevention and control the spread hepatitis B virus. This study is based on the case data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China from 2003 to 2021. We build a dynamic model that includes potential hepatitis B virus carriers, use nonlinear least squares and genetic algorithms to fit the parameters in the model, and calculate the reproduction number of hepatitis B virus transmission in the population and obtain R_c=1.741. The number of potential hepatitis B virus carriers is estimated to be 449,535 (95%CI [415651 to 483420]) based on our model, which is 30.49% of the total number of hepatitis B cases, and the simulation results show the number of chronic hepatitis B incidence decreases as the vaccination rate α increases, increasing α by 20%, the number of chronic hepatitis B incidence decreases by 169,469 on average.

Keywords

HBV; potential HBV carriers; stability analysis; reproduction number; vaccine

Subject

Medicine and Pharmacology, Epidemiology and Infectious Diseases

Copyright: This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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