Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Seasonal Divergence in the Weakening Relationship between Interannual Temperature Changes and Northern Boreal Vegetation Activity

Version 1 : Received: 23 May 2023 / Approved: 24 May 2023 / Online: 24 May 2023 (05:43:06 CEST)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Zhao, H.; Jin, N.; Wang, X.; Fu, G.; Xiang, K.; Wang, L.; Zhao, J. The Seasonal Divergence in the Weakening Relationship between Interannual Temperature Changes and Northern Boreal Vegetation Activity. Plants 2023, 12, 2447. Zhao, H.; Jin, N.; Wang, X.; Fu, G.; Xiang, K.; Wang, L.; Zhao, J. The Seasonal Divergence in the Weakening Relationship between Interannual Temperature Changes and Northern Boreal Vegetation Activity. Plants 2023, 12, 2447.

Abstract

The response of boreal vegetation to global warming has shown a weakening trend over the last three decades. However, in previous studies, models of vegetation activity responses to temperature change have often only considered changes in mean daily temperature (Tmean), with the diurnal temperature range (DTR) being neglected. The goal of this study is to evaluate the temporal trends of the relationships between two temperature factors (Tmean and DTR) and vegetation activity across the boreal regions on both annual and seasonal timescales, by simultaneously employing satellite and climate datasets. We found that the interannual partial correlation between growing season (GS) NDVI and Tmean (RNDVI−Tmean) showed a significant decreasing trend over the last 34 years. At the seasonal scale, RNDVI−Tmean shows a significant upward trend in the spring, while in the summer and autumn, RNDVI−Tmean exhibits a significant downward trend. The temporal trend characteristics of the partial correlation between NDVI and DTR (RNDVI−DTR), at both the GS and seasonal scales, are fully consistent with RNDVI−Tmean. The area with a significant decrease in GS RNDVI−Tmean and RNDVI−DTR accounted for approximately 44.40% and 41.21% of the boreal region with the 17-year moving window, respectively. In stark contrast, the area exhibiting a significant increasing trend in GS RNDVI−Tmean and RNDVI−DTR accounted for only approximately 14.65% and 13.59% of the boreal region with the 17-year moving window, respectively. With respect to the seasonal patterns of RNDVI−Tmean and RNDVI−DTR, the area with a significant upward trend in spring was greater than that with a significant downward trend. Nevertheless, more areas had a significant downward trend of RNDVI−Tmean and RNDVI−DTR in summer and autumn than had a significant upward trend. Overall, our research reveals a weakening trend in the impact of temperature on vegetation activity in the boreal regions, and contributes to a deeper understanding of the vegetation response to global warming.

Keywords

Temperature factors; Vegetation activity; Diurnal temperature range; Boreal forest; Climate change

Subject

Biology and Life Sciences, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics

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