Kandilogiannakis, G.; Mastorocostas, P.; Voulodimos, A.; Hilas, C. Short-Term Load Forecasting of the Greek Power System Using a Dynamic Block-Diagonal Fuzzy Neural Network. Energies2023, 16, 4227.
Kandilogiannakis, G.; Mastorocostas, P.; Voulodimos, A.; Hilas, C. Short-Term Load Forecasting of the Greek Power System Using a Dynamic Block-Diagonal Fuzzy Neural Network. Energies 2023, 16, 4227.
Kandilogiannakis, G.; Mastorocostas, P.; Voulodimos, A.; Hilas, C. Short-Term Load Forecasting of the Greek Power System Using a Dynamic Block-Diagonal Fuzzy Neural Network. Energies2023, 16, 4227.
Kandilogiannakis, G.; Mastorocostas, P.; Voulodimos, A.; Hilas, C. Short-Term Load Forecasting of the Greek Power System Using a Dynamic Block-Diagonal Fuzzy Neural Network. Energies 2023, 16, 4227.
Abstract
A block-diagonal fuzzy neural network for short-term load forecasting is proposed. DBD-FELF consists of fuzzy rules with consequent parts that are neural networks with internal recurrence. These networks have a hidden layer which consists of pairs of neurons with feedback connections between them. The overall fuzzy model partitions the input space in partially overlapping fuzzy regions, where the recurrent neural networks of the respective rules operate. The partition of the input space and determination of the fuzzy rule base is performed by use of Fuzzy C-Means clustering algorithm and the RENNCOM constrained optimization method is applied for consequent parameter tuning. The electric load time-series of the Greek power system is examined, and hourly-based forecasting for the whole year is performed. The performance of DBD-FELF is tested via extensive experimental analysis and the results are promising, since an average percentage error of 1.18% is attained, along with an average yearly absolute error of 76.2 MW. Moreover, DBD-FELF is compared with Deep Learning, fuzzy and neurofuzzy rivals, such that its particular attributes are highlighted.
Keywords
Greek power system; electric load forecasting; block-diagonal neurons; fuzzy neural network; internal feedback
Subject
Engineering, Electrical and Electronic Engineering
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
