Version 1
: Received: 13 April 2023 / Approved: 13 April 2023 / Online: 13 April 2023 (08:34:00 CEST)
How to cite:
Lian, T.; Wang, J.; Chen, D.; Liu, T.; Wang, D. A Strong 2023/24 El Niño Is Staged by Tropical Pacific Warm Water Buildup. Preprints2023, 2023040313. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202304.0313.v1
Lian, T.; Wang, J.; Chen, D.; Liu, T.; Wang, D. A Strong 2023/24 El Niño Is Staged by Tropical Pacific Warm Water Buildup. Preprints 2023, 2023040313. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202304.0313.v1
Lian, T.; Wang, J.; Chen, D.; Liu, T.; Wang, D. A Strong 2023/24 El Niño Is Staged by Tropical Pacific Warm Water Buildup. Preprints2023, 2023040313. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202304.0313.v1
APA Style
Lian, T., Wang, J., Chen, D., Liu, T., & Wang, D. (2023). A Strong 2023/24 El Niño Is Staged by Tropical Pacific Warm Water Buildup. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202304.0313.v1
Chicago/Turabian Style
Lian, T., Ting Liu and Dazhi Wang. 2023 "A Strong 2023/24 El Niño Is Staged by Tropical Pacific Warm Water Buildup" Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202304.0313.v1
Abstract
The upper ocean heat content in the equatorial Pacific usually serves as a primary precursor for an upcoming El Niño, while the strong atmospheric perturbations such as westerly wind burst and easterly wind surge sometimes play a decisive role in determining the final intensity of the event. The tropical Pacific Ocean has just experienced a rare 3-year La Niña, which accumulated a huge amount of warm water in the western basin by the winter of 2022. Using a state-of-the-art climate prediction system, here we show that the restored warm water is sufficient to boost a strong El Niño toward the end of 2023, and that an extreme event could take place if a few sizable westerly wind bursts would occur in spring and early summer. This prediction is not sensitive to initial errors within the tropical Pacific, but may be subject to some uncertainties brought about by influences from elsewhere.
Keywords
2023/24 El Niño
Subject
Environmental and Earth Sciences, Other
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
